From our UK edition
In today's election special podcast, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I attempt to explain why Ed Miliband unveiled a stone engraved with Labour's six pledges today. Will anyone notice what the pledges are or just discuss the fact they are appearing on a giant stone? We also look at how the stage is set for a last minute Tory surge and why a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats is looking increasingly unlikely.
From our UK edition
Ukip has four key target seats in Essex and Kent it hopes to win on Thursday. In order of likelihood of victory, Clacton, Rochester & Strood, South Thanet and Thurrock are the constituencies to watch on election night. I visited three of these seats yesterday, to find out how each of the candidates are feeling about the impending election, as well as their predictions of how well Ukip will do. 1. South Thanet Ukip candidate: Nigel Farage Last Ashcroft poll: Ukip two points behind Tories WATCH: Highlights from @Nigel_Farage's final public meeting of the campaign in South Thanet #ge2015 #ukip https://t.co/sIRqo4PtKg — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) May 2, 2015 Nigel Farage held his final three public meetings on Saturday.
From our UK edition
Lord Ashcroft has released his final marginal polls before the election, looking at ten marginal seats in England and Scotland. The Tories are set to hold onto four key marginals: Battersea, Croydon Central, Pudsey and Stourbridge. In Croydon Central, Ashcroft has found significant movement towards the Tories: last October, there was a six point Labour lead, which shrunk to a four point lead in March and has now turned into a four point Conservative lead. This movement is thanks to a decline in the Ukip vote share, which has dropped nine points since October. There's also good news for the employment minister Esther McVey in Wirral West.
From our UK edition
In today's election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss the most significant moments during the campaign this week. Did Ed Miliband's interview with Russell Brand make any impact? Which moments of the Question Time special will be remembered? And what might happen one week today if the Conservatives are unable to form a government?
From our UK edition
Ukip is becoming a two-faced party. One side is made up of credible political challengers, while the other side comprises LibLabCon conspiracy theorists. Since the last election, the party has made progress by promoting this serious side, while sidelining the fruitcakes. But over the last few days, the more loony side of the party has reappeared, thanks to the party making the BBC a campaign issue.
From our UK edition
By this time next week, the election will all be over and it will be a question of seats, leaderships and coalitions. With six days of campaigning left, today will be dominated by the fallout from last night’s Question Time special. David Cameron put in a good turn, Ed Miliband did not and Nick Clegg appeared to sail on through without much impact. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Miliband's not sorry The special edition of Question Time last night with the three main party leaders was the best television of the campaign. Cameron, Miliband and Clegg were hauled over the coals by an excellent audience in Leeds, who were impressively well informed and took no prisoners.
From our UK edition
According to the snap poll, David Cameron has won the final TV 'debate' of the short campaign. In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discussed the Question Time special this evening and how each of the party leaders performed. Was the audience more receptive to Ed Miliband or Cameron? Were there any major gaffs? Did Nick Clegg make much of an impact? And will it make any difference to the campaign?
From our UK edition
As election day nears, the number of polls appearing is rapidly increasing. But it still remains very tight and the movements are generally within the margin of error. But there is one trend emerging from the handful of polls released in the last few days: the Tories are stable on 35 per cent and ahead of Labour. As the chart above shows, YouGov, Ipsos MORI and ComRes all put the Tories on 35 and ICM concurred with this vote share on Monday. There is no consensus between the pollsters however on where Labour sits in comparison to the Tories. Lord Ashcroft had Labour the furthest behind, traling by six points, on Monday, while Ipsos MORI’s latest poll today has the Tories five points ahead but ComRes has the two parties level on 35 per cent.
From our UK edition
In today's election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the Liberal Democrats' efforts to put themselves at the front of the campaign, what to expect from today's Question Time special with the three main party leaders and the current state of the opinion polls. With one week to go, are we finally witnessing the Tory crossover?
From our UK edition
With one week to go, are the Conservatives back on track to being the biggest party? In this week’s View from 22 podcast, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss the state of the election campaign with one week till polling day and which party has the momentum. Fraser and James have also interviewed Boris Johnson in the magazine this week, who reveals his concerns about inequality — is this the opening salvo for his leadership campaign? Based on Boris’s comments, Tim Montgomerie and Ryan Bourne also debate the future of conservatism and what ideas the next Tory leader might embrace in his or her manifesto. Is finding a different role for the state a core part of this?
From our UK edition
Will there be a Portillo moment on election night with any of the party leaders? Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are two most likely leaders to lose and Lord Ashcroft has polled Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet to find out how safe the Lib Dem and Ukip leaders are. As the chart above shows, Farage and Clegg are still in very tight races. In Sheffield Hallam, Labour is now just one point ahead of the Lib Dems — compared to a three point lead in November last year. In South Thanet, Ashcroft puts Ukip two points behind the Tories, compared to a one point lead in November 2014. Although the two parties are battling for first place, Labour is drifting into third.
From our UK edition
Ed Miliband’s interview with Russell Brand has been released and it’s rather depressing. Not that Miliband messed up — in fact, he is very on message and sticks to Labour's party lines. It’s simply not very enlightening. Brand comes across as the mad man cornering the boring person in a pub because he thinks he might agree with him. It’s business as usual from Brand, who ranted about the ‘unelected powerful elites that really control things behind the scenes’, the ‘geopolitical influences’ and ‘transnational corporations’.
From our UK edition
In today's election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss David Cameron's 'tax lock' pledge, Ed Miliband's promise on tax credits and why his interview with Russell Brand was such a bad idea. We also look at the latest opinion polls which suggest Scottish Labour is set to be wiped out next week, and discuss why there might be some good news in store for the Scottish Tories.
From our UK edition
Just when Scottish Labour didn’t think it could get any worse, a new poll suggests they are now facing total wipe out next Thursday. According to Ipsos MORI/STV News, the SNP is now up to 54 per cent of the vote share — up two points since their last poll in January. Punching these numbers into Electoral Calculus suggests the Nats will win all 59 seats and wipe out the other parties. Another prediction website, ScotlandVotes, suggests that this vote share would leave one Liberal Democrat MP after polling day. Unlike Lord Ashcroft’s recent polls north of the border, this survey was conducted across the whole of Scotland — not just in marginals — and first-past-the-post means that a total wipeout for Scottish Labour is not a dead cert.
From our UK edition
There will be more promises from the party leaders today — plus a comedic twist. David Cameron will pledge a five year ‘tax lock’ that will be enshrined in law, while Ed Miliband will attack the proposed £12 billion welfare cuts and promise to raise working-age tax credits in line with inflation. And then we have Russell Brand. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The taxman banished David Cameron doesn’t appear to feel confident that the electorate believes his promises.
From our UK edition
In today's election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss David Cameron's ramped up rhetoric on the SNP threat to the Union, the Tories' promise to create 50,000 new apprenticeships from Libor fines and Labour's latest attempts to talk about controlling immigration. We also briefly look at the Liberal Democrats 'red lines' for future coalition negotiations and Ukip's attempts to woo voters in the north.
From our UK edition
David Cameron is upping the ante on the SNP today, warning voters there’s just ‘ten days to save the United Kingdom’ — despite the fact the election is now nine days away. Or maybe he is counting until the coalition negotiations begin? Ed Miliband on the other hand will add some meat to his promise that Labour will put ‘controls on immigration’. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. The Battle for Britain, cont.
From our UK edition
Ukip is expected to do well in a handful of seats, but where? Lord Ashcroft has polled four marginal seats where he's previously found the people’s army doing well. Two of the seats are top targets for Ukip — Castle Point and Great Yarmouth — but the Tory peer has found that the party has failed to move into first place with under two weeks to go. In Castle Point, where Ukip launched its election campaign earlier this year, Ashcroft has found the Tories are now ahead by five points. There has been a 17 per cent swing to Ukip but it's not enough to put them into first place. Use the interactive chart above to see the latest polling numbers.
From our UK edition
Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft's latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It's worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the opposite result. The latest survey from YouGov has Labour two points ahead on 34 per cent, while a new Populus/FT poll has Labour three points ahead on 36 per cent.
From our UK edition
The general election campaign has entered the final stretch and each day between now and polling day, we'll be producing a short lunchtime podcast looking at the day's campaign developments. Today, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss Labour's new housing pledges, the 5,000 small businesses backing the Tories, the hysterical talk of the SNP threat — as well as the unfathomable state of the opinion polls.