Ross Clark

Imagine a Tory prime minister who gave the liberal left almost everything that it wanted. Higher migration? Sure, let’s treble it. End austerity with more tax and spending? Sure, let’s pay the wages of 9 million people from the state’s purse, hand the NHS another £34 billion – and let’s jack up corporation tax to pay for it. Climate change? Let’s close down every gas-fired power station by 2035, ban fracking and lumber oil and gas companies with a windfall tax. Culture wars? Let’s make gay conversion therapy a crime.     You might think that the liberal left would at least bring itself to show some gratitude, but apparently not. We already have had a Tory PM who has brought about all of the above. His name is Boris Johnson.  But thanks?

So is Artificial intelligence (AI) to be a new engine of growth for the UK economy? That is Rishi Sunak’s hope. Ideally, he might have been using his trip to Washington to announce a trade deal between the UK and the US. Of course, that's not going to happen: Joe Biden has made it clear that he doesn’t regard trade deals – with anyone – as a priority, not least because the crowning achievement of his administration so far, the Inflation Reduction Act, is a huge protectionist device dressed up as a fiscal and environmental measure. The Prime Minister then seems to have decided that securing something on AI is the next best thing.

Would Labour’s plan to impose VAT on private school fees really raise £1.6 billion, as the party claims? Not according to a research paper by the education think tank EDSK. The £1.6 billion figure is often attributed to the Resolution Foundation, yet the original source, says EDSK, is a paper by the Fabian Society in 2011 – a paper which it says got its figures wrong in several different respects. It started with the assumption that there were, in that year, 628,000 pupils enrolled in independent schools. Yet this government figure did not just include pupils at fee-paying schools, but also children enrolled at academies and city technology schools. These were described as ‘independent’ because they were outside the control of local authorities.

If you think nothing works in Britain now, just wait. Wait, that is, until a future government (I’ll guess a Labour one, but can never tell with the Conservatives any more) introduces a universal basic income – that is a guaranteed, unconditional income for everyone, regardless of means, and regardless of whether they are working, looking for work or completely hostile to the concept that they should ever be expected to earn their keep. Some on the left have been plugging away at the idea of a basic income for years, but the left-wing think tank Autonomy has now announced a pilot scheme by which 30 volunteers will be randomly selected to receive £1,600 a month for two years. It says it is seeking funding from councils, philanthropists and local authorities.

Not for the first time, a gulf has opened up between house price indices. This morning, Nationwide reports that average prices fell by 0.1 per cent in May (following a surprise rise of 0.4 per cent in April), taking annual house price inflation down to minus 3.4 per cent. That will surprise no-one, given the rise in interest rates over the past year. Except, that is, for the fact that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported last week that average prices are up by 4.1 per cent over the year. On the one hand we appear to be entering a slide, which could easily turn into a crash. On the other, the market ploughs on ahead, shrugging off the negative influence of rising interest rates and making people wonder whether the UK housing market will ever fall.

So, Just Stop Oil is now His Majesty’s Official Opposition. Keir Starmer has adopted the group’s main demand – no development of new oil and gas reserves – as his own. Presumably he hopes to attract green votes, especially in Scotland where the SNP has a similar policy. But it means going into the next election with a policy which is both economically and environmentally illiterate. Even with a drive towards clean energy – and even if tricky targets to outlaw new gas boilers and petrol and diesel cars could be met – Britain is going to remain dependent on oil and gas for decades to come. In spite of a boom in the construction of wind and solar farms, solar and wind currently accounts for little over 4 per cent of our total energy needs.

The name Chris Whitty will forever be associated in people’s minds with Covid-19. But in a recent cri de coeur he reminded us not only that he continues to exist following the end of his daily appearances on our TV screens, but that there are many other ways in which pathogens are out to get us. In a newspaper piece written with the chairs of Ofwat and the Environment Agency, the Chief Medical Officer raised the subject of Britain’s filthy rivers. While Britain’s environment has improved in many ways, with cleaner air, more trees and some species returning after centuries’ absence, our rivers have defied the trend, being more afflicted with sewage than ever before.

Keir Starmer has made the anodyne demand that Britain seek a ‘closer trading agreement’ with the EU. But why doesn’t he go the whole hog and make it Labour policy to rejoin the single market?  The Labour leader could hardly be accused of seeking to reverse Brexit. Some Leavers, prior to the 2016 referendum, wanted Britain to stay in the single market after Brexit – including Daniel Hannan and, on many occasions, Boris Johnson. So surely rejoining the single market, but staying out of the EU, could be the compromise which would please the greatest number of the public, propelling Starmer into Downing Street as a unifying force?