Peter Hoskin

Courtesy of the Sun: Dear Gordon We both love the Labour Party. I have worked for it for twenty years and you for far longer. We know we owe it everything and it owes us nothing. I owe it to our Party to say what I believe no matter how hard that may. I now believe your continued leadership makes a Conservative victory more not less likely That would be disastrous for our country. This moment calls for stronger regulation, an active state, better public services, an open democracy. It calls for a government that measures itself by how it treats the poorest in society. Those are our values, not David Cameron's. We therefore owe it to our country to give it a real choice.

Ok, so maybe we're all going a bit reshuffle crazy in Westminster, but here's a theory about Tom Watson's resignation that just popped into my head.  Imagine, if you will, that you're the Dear Leader and you hear that Jacqui Smith's resignation has leaked.  This wasn't Downing St-sanctioned information, and it's certainly not part of your gameplan - so what do you do?  Do you do nothing, and watch everyone get into a frenzy about how the Government has lost control of its own ministers?  Or do you get one of your lapdogs to do exactly the same thing, so that people think Downing Street must be in control of things?

Anyone who thinks that Cabinet members will immediately come out against Brown in the aftermath of this week's elections had better take a look at this quote in today's Mirror: "One senior figure said pressure will 'ratchet' up on the PM if Labour slips to third or fourth place. He added: 'There is no person in the Cabinet ready to do the damage, it needs a stalking horse. But we are running out of time.'" Like last summer, the signs are that none of the main candidates for the Labour leadership are willing to to bloody their hands over this.  In which case, if Brown's going to be ousted, then it will require an intervention from a prominent backbencher.  But who would be up for the task?

There's something grimly hilarious about the frontpage headline of the Sunday Times today: "Gordon Brown wants Ed Balls as Chancellor".  Sure, we've known that for years, but now it sounds as though the Dear Leader may actually be on the verge of making it happen.  The story goes on refer to a "top-level leak" from Downing St, saying that Brown wants the move to be the "centrepiece" of a "sweeping rehsuffle" designed to "restore Labour's political fortunes". The stupidity of it almost doesn't bear thinking about.  After all, Balls is hardly the most popular figure with either the public or his own colleagues.  Let's not forget that this is the man who devised much of the regulatory and fiscal framework which has dragged the country into economic hell.

Well, well, well - it just goes from bad to worse for Labour.  A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has them behind the Lib Dems when it comes to general election voting intentions.  The Tories are well ahead on 40 percent (up 1), then it's Clegg & Co. on 25 percent (up 5), and then Labour trailing in third, on 22 percent (down 6).  I stress: this is in answer to the question "Who would you support in a general election?" - it's nothing to do with European or local elections. Of course, all the usual caveats apply.  This could well be a rogue, and - even if it's not - the Lib Dem support could, theoretically, plummet once the spotlight stops shining on Nick Clegg.

It's typical, isn't it?  Coffee House decides to stop working for a couple of hours and, in the meantime, two MPs confirm that they're going to stand down.  You've probably caught the news elsewhere on the good ol' blogosphere but - yes - Margaret Moran and Julie Kirkbride won't be running for Parliament in the next election.  Hardly surprising, really. With these two delayed resignations coming at the same time, the contrast between the Labour and Conservative approaches is even more striking.  We've barely heard a squeak from Moran over the past couple of weeks, as Labour MPs are subjected to behind-closed-door meetings with the "star chamber".  Whereas Cameron is encouraging Tory MPs to air their dirty laundry in public, and take their case to voters.