Peter Hoskin

Brown’s in trouble, whatever happens tonight

From our UK edition

So, Brown's judgement awaits, as he goes into his meeting with the PLP in around 5 minutes' time.  To be honest, all the visible signs are that he won't get chucked out tonight: the torrent of resignations expected today was but a trickle; reports are that Downing Street is "relaxed"; and there still seem to be more Brown supporters than detractors willing to speak out in public.  Still, there was very little expectation that James Purnell would resign last Thursday night, so maybe there's something brewing in the shadows for this evening.  We've heard suspiciously little about that "signupnow" email, and what of folk like Charles Clarke and Stephen Byers?  We shall see. But even if Brown does get through tonight, his position is still impossibly weak.

Poll suggests that BNP success was due to Labour failure

From our UK edition

It gets worse for Gordon Brown.  A YouGov poll for Channel 4 has just come up with the following findings: "The BNP won its first seats in the European parliament not because its supporters are all racist, but because many voters feel insecure and let down by the main parties. Our exclusive poll reveals wider causes of disenchantment. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters agree that "there is no real difference these days between Britain's three main parties". Among Green, UKIP and BNP voters, the proportion who fail to see a “real difference” climbs to 60% or more (69% of BNP voters). One of the most startling findings came when we tested anecdotal reports that many BNP voters were old Labour sympathisers who felt that the party no longer speaks up for them.

Here comes the Field artillery

From our UK edition

One voice that's been strikingly absent, so far, from the recent debate over Brown's future has been that of Frank Field.  He's been a fierce, and integrous, critic of Brown for the past decade, so the assumption has been that he's been holding back now so as not to ruin his chance of winning the Speakership.  But no longer.  The Birkenhead MP has just put up a blog post which is as incisive as ever.  Here's the key passage: "Don't let anyone kid themselves that this was an unimportant election where voters felt they could make a clear protest vote. Unless something changes significantly on a national level these results would be reproduced at a general election. Labour cannot win with the present Prime Minister.

Rebellion Watch

From our UK edition

So Jane Kennedy has quit her position as a junior environment minister, and Paul Waugh tells us that there'll be more resignations ahead of Brown's meeting with the PLP tonight.  In the meantime, Baroness Blackstone seems to implicitly call for Brown to go, via an article in the Standard arguing against one of the main reasons put forward by Brown's supporters for keeping him.  Here's how it kicks off: "Most political commentators assume that if there is a new leader of the Labour Party there would have to be an immediate general election. They are wrong. There is nothing in the British Constitution that requires one, nor is there any recent precedent, irrespective of party.

European election results: live blog

From our UK edition

Stay tuned for live coverage of the European election results, and their aftermath, from 2100. 2057, JGF: Harriet Harman is seated in the BBC studio. She really has been a trooper for the Labour party in the last few days. 2058, PH: Just before the results come in, it's worth noting that turnout was 43 percet - a record low for Euro elections. 2059, JGF: The rumour reaching me is that projections show that Labour will finish third behind UKIP. 2100, PH: Sky showing dramatic footage of police clashing with anti-fascist campaigners trying to enter the Town Hall in Manchester.  Nick Griffin is there. 2103, PH: Fraser's on Sky, folks.  Tune in, but don't leave Coffee House!

When did Brown give up on the idea of Chancellor Balls?

From our UK edition

Proverbial tumbleweeds are blowing through Westminster at the moment, as everyone waits for the European election results tonight.  We'll have full coverage on Coffee House later, of course.  But, if you're stuck for something to read in the meantime, I'd recommend Andrew Rawnsley's piece in the Observer.  Rawnsley sets out a host of reasons why the Cabinet are wary of moving against Brown, but it's this snippet about the reshuffle which jumped out at me: "Early on Thursday evening, Mr Brown attempted to bully Mr Darling into leaving the Treasury. Then and again on Friday morning, Alistair Darling pushed back and the prime minister was finally forced to abandon the idea of installing Ed Balls at Number 11.

Mandelson and Draper: in conversation

From our UK edition

Fascinating stuff.  PoliticsHome have published the full leaked email exchange between Peter Mandelson and Derek Draper which the Mail on Sunday reported this morning.  To be honest, I think Mandelson's comments about Brown are far less cruel than the Mail cover would have you believe.  Sure, he drops words like "angry" and "insecure"; but within a portrait of Brown that even many of his allies would agree with, or even think a little generous.  Aside from that, the references to Draper and Mandelson's history (Mandelson: "Don't worry about the past. You were a shit to me, as you were to Ben, but it is in the past.") are all good stuff for political anoraks.

Good and bad tidings for Brown

From our UK edition

So, this morning's Most Significant Intervention comes courtesy of Jon Cruddas, writing in the Sunday Mirror.  Although the Dagenham MP makes sure to criticise the Government over Royal Mail, and over its general "drift", the main message is that the party should stick with Brown: "Everyone knows our Government is in trouble. Serious trouble. But to suggest that we’ll tackle those problems simply by chucking Gordon Brown overboard is madness. We’re now less than a year away from the election. We have no more chances left. We either pull ourselves together, stake out what we stand for, or we will be gone. If we don’t, the next Ministers to walk out of the Cabinet will find David Cameron and his friends walking in to replace them." Why so significant?

The dark side of Tinseltown

From our UK edition

Peter Hoskin marks the 50th anniversary of the death of George Reeves, TV’s original Superman Uncork the champagne, put on your best frock, and grin like the good times are never going to end. After all, it’s 1959, and Hollywood is the place to be. Billy Wilder’s Some Like It Hot has just left movie theaters; that great John Wayne film, Rio Bravo, is still doing the rounds; and the whole town — no, the whole world — is gearing up for the release of some Biblical epic they’re producing over at MGM. What’s it called? Oh, yes: Ben-Hur. So much glamour, money and talent that you can’t help but enjoy it all. Or maybe not.

Will Harman make her mark on Brown’s week from hell?

From our UK edition

With things happening so fast over the past few days, it's worth taking stock of where we - or, more accurately, the Labour Party - are in the struggle to get rid of Gordon.  While the resignation of James Purnell didn't spark the high-level Cabinet rebellion it could have done - and while folk like Alan Johnson and David Miliband may still be sitting, supine, in the highest offices of government - the bottom line is that Brown faces an extremely difficult few days.

In Memoriam

From our UK edition

65 years on from D-Day, we remember the lives lost and the struggles undertaken. (Photograph taken on Omaha Beach, 6 June, 1944, by Robert Capa).

Brown does a Darling

From our UK edition

Just in case Gordon Brown needed reminding that his battle for survival is being fought on numerous fronts, the Telegraph has sifted through the PM's expenses again and discovered a rather juicy morsel.  Apparently, around 06-07, Brown claimed the allowance for his constituency home while also charging the taxpayer for council tax and other bills on another property in London.  It's not about the amount of money he claimed on the London property - some £512, certainly a mistake - but the principle of it: after all, this is the misdemeanour which Darling was charged with earlier in the week, and the Chancellor had to both explain himself and pay back the extra money.  On top of that, there are also signs that Brown engaged in a spot of flipping.

Caroline Flint’s resignation statement

From our UK edition

Flint slightly undermined her position by holding out for a better position in Cabinet before resigning, but this parting statement is still pretty powerful stuff: Dear Gordon I believe the achievements of the Labour Government to date have been monumental and you have played an immense part in the creation of those achievements. However, I am extremely disappointed at your failure to have an inclusive Government. You have a two tier Government.  Your inner circle and then the remainder of Cabinet. I have the greatest respect for the women who have served as full members of Cabinet and for those who attend as and when required.  However, few are allowed into your inner circle.

Where does Balls stand now?

From our UK edition

One of the many questions whirling around Westminster is what Brown is doing to placate Ed Balls.  So, so close to his dream job of Chancellor - but denied it because of Brown's precarious position, and an exhilarating intervention by James Purnell - Balls is now stuck as Schools Secretary; a role in which he has hardly excelled and has found it difficult to compete against Michael Gove.  There's nothing certain, but plenty of theories among Labour folk I've spoken to: that Balls is simply taking one for the team; that his wife's move to the DWP is part of a compensation package; that Brown has promised to designate him the heir apparent when the time comes, if that wasn't going to happen already etc. etc.

Thirty pieces of silver?

From our UK edition

Rumour on the Beeb that Caroline Flint will be made Health Secretary - the price for not following the lead of her fellow "Pugin Room plotter" Hazel Blears? UPDATE, 1459: Now Sky are saying that Andy Burnham may have the job.

What’s going on in the minds of Miliband and Johnson?

From our UK edition

So just what are Johnson and Miliband - the Men Who Would be King - thinking?  They seem to have bottled, just when their big chance has come.  Here, for the sake of completeness, are a few more or less possible scenarios: 1) They genuinely think that Gordon Brown has a chance of recovering, and actually want to be part of his Government.  Relatedly, they just may not be interested in the leadership. 2) They don't see the point in rocking the boat, Blears style, now, and would rather take over once Brown has lead Labour to oblivion at the next election. 3) In Miliband's case, he may prefer for Johnson to take over before the next election, leading Labour to a less inglourious defeat, before taking over himself.

How things stand

From our UK edition

So where are we now?  After James Purnell's resignation last night, Brown really is on the ropes.  In fact, I can't see him nor his Presbyterian conscience lasting the next couple of weeks, or even the next few days.  Sure, folk like ever-spineless David Miliband and Jack Straw have come out in support of Gordon, but it's the silences which remain interesting: in particular Alistair Darling, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman.  Darling, because if he's forcibly removed from the Treasury, then we might expect him to go nuclear on Brown.  And Johnson and Harman, because they'd probably be among the first in the leadership queue were Brown to go.  Their words could tip the balance one way or the other. The flashpoints remain.

Reshuffle imminent

From our UK edition

Seems like Gordon Brown is going to reshuffle his Cabinet this morning, in response to the resignation of James Purnell.   The key thing to look out for is whether he replaces Alistair Darling with Ed Balls - we know he wants to, but the events of last night may have dissuaded the PM from doing anything quite so incendiary.  Stay tuned for more as we get it. P.S. The indispensable PoliticsHome are running a useful list of ministers and MPs who have come out against or in support of Brown.

The Tories are on post-Brown footing<br />

From our UK edition

Watching Eric Pickles on Sky just now, it's revealing just how the Tories are responding to the news of Purnell's resignation.  Pickles' message is that Purnell agrees with Gordon Brown on all the big issues - "high debt, ID cards, and all that" - and he's pushing the line that Purnell isn't concerned with the functions of government but only with the survival of the Labour Party.  It's slightly disingenuous in this case, but the tactic is clear: suggesting that the Labour Party will remain the same even if - or when? - the current PM is dispatched.  Yep, the Tories are on post-Brown footing.