Peter Hoskin

The Tories must ready themselves for the coming tax battle

From our UK edition

You may not agree with the specifics, but one of the successes of the Lib Dem conference so far has been to shift the debate about our fiscal recovery from one wholly about spending cuts to one about tax changes too.  This is a necessary step.  For reasons which have been delved into by Danny Finkelstein, spending restraint alone won't be enough to tackle Brown's debt mountain.  There will have to be tax rises.  And, what's more, they will have to be efficient and - as far as possible - fair. These points are made by Jackie Ashley in today's Guardian, who argues that Labour should move as quickly as possible onto the issue of taxes, because they're getting routed when it comes to spending cuts.

Is Baroness Scotland finished?

From our UK edition

If things were looking bad for Baroness Scotland before, then they're looking calamitous now.  On top of the row about her illegal immigrant cleaner, it's emerged that she wrongly claimed around £170,000 in living expenses since 2004.  According to the Cabinet Office, the money should only go to peers whose main residence is outside London.  While Baroness Scotland's main residence is in, er, the west London suburb of Chiswick - all of six miles away from the Lords. Almost every Labour person I've spoken to over the past few days is astounded that Scotland is still in her role as attorney general.  And I imagine this news will harden their opinion.

Is Osborne worth it?

From our UK edition

Fresh from winning GQ's Politician of the Year award last week, George Osborne now has an accolade he may be even happier with: heavy praise from both Peter Oborne and Matthew Parris.  Both commentators write columns today which dish out the superlatives for Osborne's response to the fiscal crisis, and suggest he has been vindicated by events.  Here's the key passage from Oborne's article, by way of a taster: "Slowly Osborne began to win the argument. First (as I revealed in this column last March), Bank of England governor Mervyn King sent private warnings to the Treasury that he feared extra public spending would damage the official credit ratings that are awarded to the Government as an independent yardstick of the health of the nation's finances.

The Tories will be thrilled if Brown starts playing the World Saver again

From our UK edition

Patrick Wintour has an insightful article in today's Guardian, setting out how and why Brown has dithered when it comes to deploying the c-word.  So far as the current landscape is concerned, this passage is particularly striking: "There is tension between Brown and Darling on how far the campaign can be based on Brown's achievements in saving the world economy, and how far it must be based on visions of the future. Brown's determination to dwell on the fact that he made the correct big decisions in the recession has been one cause of his past reluctance to address the future deficit mountain, and how to deal with it.

Cable separates his own brand from the Lib Dems

From our UK edition

So are Vince Cable's public spending cuts his own, or are they Lib Dem policy?  In his Straight Talk interview with the Lib Dem treasury spokesman this weekend, Andrew Neil tries to get to the bottom of it all.  The result?  Well, according to Cable, Nick Clegg "approved" his pamphlet for the think tank Reform, and some of its contents could find their way into the party's manifesto: "A lot of it is already Lib Dem policy, a lot of it already is, the rest of it will have to be considered and we’ll go into an election with a manifesto, we have a due process.  Maybe because of who I am a lot of it will be there, but some of it may not be, it has to be agreed with my colleagues of course.

Will the Tories abolish the RAF?

From our UK edition

Over at his new blog for the Wall Street Journal, Iain Martin ups the provocative factor by asking: "Will the Tories axe the RAF?"  Here's the key passage: "It has long been the dirty little secret of the U.K. defence establishment that a way to streamline the command structure, reduce duplication and slash costs is to close the RAF. There are two options for how it could be done: 1) Abolish the traditional three services and switch to a single marine corps model, with all three services effectively merging under new leadership. Or, 2) Split the RAF’s capacity between the two remaining services, giving the army the lift and delivery components and the navy responsibility for the strike capability, meaning fighters etc.

How quickly things change

From our UK edition

Spot the difference: 5 September, 2009: Gordon Brown warns G20 countries against reining in spending, The Telegraph "Britain is resisting pressure from Germany and other Euro-currency countries who are planning to moves towards an 'exit strategy' that would see some of the planned anti-recessionary spending programmes being scaled back to cut rising national debts." 18 September, 2009: Gordon Brown to call for international agreement to cut public spending, The Telegraph "Mr Brown says 'exit strategies' from the emergency fiscal measures that were introduced to stave off the worst excesses of the recession need to be agreed by all the leading nations.

An April election is on the cards

From our UK edition

A couple of weeks ago, Kevin Maguire told us that No.10 is thinking about a March or April general election.  And now Steve Richards follows up by suggesting April is most likely: "Speaking to influential ministers and aides I get the impression that their favoured month for an election is next April. In theory they could hold out until June, but that would mean going to the country in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections when Labour is expected to do badly. This option is already ruled out. There will be no June election. Obviously a general election could be held on the same day as the May local elections and it is still a likely option. But that date is the equivalent of going right up against the buffers when the media and perhaps voters will be getting impatient.

Which Miliband’s star is ascending?

From our UK edition

For the Kremlinologists among us, Andrew Grice has an insightful article in today's Independent on the growing support for Ed Miliband in the Labour Party.  He kicks it off by asking the pivotal question when it comes to the Brothers Miliband - "Will Ed Miliband eclipse brother David?" - and follows that up with some affirmative evidence: "...the word in Labour circles is that Ed is no longer trailing in his brother's wake. Indeed, some senior figures believe he has already overtaken him in the game that increasingly occupies Labour minds as the party appears to head for a general election defeat – its future leadership stakes... ...friends are quietly telling [Ed] that David will not be leader because he is seen as too Blairite.

Why ministers block cuts

From our UK edition

After Michael Fallon's claim last week that the shadow cabinet hasn't got "the faintest idea" of the commitment necessary to tackle the debt crisis, this anecdote from Benedict Brogan's column should act as another warning to David Cameron: "Whitehall is gripped by short-termism, yet in a world dominated by the targets culture introduced by Labour, is this any surprise? When ministers themselves prioritise short-term results that can be ready for the Six O'Clock News or the autumn conference, how can the Civil Service hold out for the long view?

All political parties must face up to the debt crisis’ severity 

From our UK edition

The Independent's Hamish McRae writes a superb column today on just how far the next government will have to go to tackle Brown's debt crisis.  His main point is that unless severe action is taken over the coming years, we'll be stuck in a perilous position by the time the next global downturn hits.  But it's this passage which stands out: "To what extent will the deficit fix itself, and how much more needs to be done? We don't have to do the full 13 per cent of GDP and the present government proposed in the Budget that it should cut about half, 6.4 per cent of GDP, of that over an eight-year period. Vince Cable, who seems to have become the nation's favourite financial GP, suggests an eight per cent correction over five years.

A report that should influence welfare reform for years to come

From our UK edition

Iain Duncan Smith's Centre for Social Justice has released a very important report today, and one which should influence the welfare debate for years to come.  At around 350 pages, it's a weighty enough tome, but I'd recommend that CoffeeHousers give it a flick through. Its subject is how to fix a benefits system which incentivises worklessness.  At the moment, unemployed people are eligible for so many benefits – there are 51 in total – that they can accumulate an income which rivals, or sometimes even exceeds, the wage they'd get by taking a job.  And even if they could get more money in work, the current benefits system still acts as a disincentive.

Quote of the day | 14 September 2009

From our UK edition

...comes courtesy of one Gordon Brown, in interview with Robert Peston: "Well, I've never been someone who myself has been interested in running up personal debts or borrowing huge amounts of money." Ahem.

On a scale of 0-5, how much does this look like leadership positioning?

From our UK edition

Scoopmeister Paul Waugh has a cracking developing story over at his blog.  He revealed earlier that Harriet Harman's people have been canvassing Labour party members with questions like: "Who do you think is the best person to sell the Labour party?" "On a scale of 0 to 5, how do you rate Harriet Harman?" But, now, it turns out that there was another question on the list: "On a scale of 0 to 5, how do you rate Gordon Brown?" Smells fishy, doesn't it?  Team Harman are claiming that she's just trying to keep in touch with the Labour grassroots, but it's very difficult not to see this as leadership positioning on her part.

Balancing defence spending

From our UK edition

There's an intriguing story in today's Times suggesting that the Tories may "backtrack" on some defence spending commitments, and are thinking about shelving the Trident replacement.  Here's a snippet: "Liam Fox, the Shadow Defence Secretary, pledged last year to protect the three most expensive equipment programmes: aircraft carriers, an armoured vehicle system known as FRES and Britain’s nuclear capability. He also indicated his desire to expand the Army by 10,000 soldiers. An aide to Dr Fox said this week that commitments 'had been superseded' by plans for a Strategic Defence Review (SDR) after the election. George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, also warned that a Conservative government would have to make “some difficult decisions” on military procurement.

8 years on

From our UK edition

Last night's "tribute in light" for the victims of the World Trade Center attack on September 11th, 2001.

Clarke and Cameron, in conversation

From our UK edition

A neat little anecdote in Steve Richards' column this morning: "When David Cameron bumped into Charles Clarke at the end of the summer, the former Cabinet minister told the Tory leader in relation to the attempted coup: 'Don't worry... we'll be back'. Cameron replied to him only half jokingly: 'That's exactly what I am worried about'.

Cutting public spending, Canadian style

From our UK edition

It first aired a couple of nights ago but, as Benedict Brogan says, this ITN news feature on how the Canadian government cut public spending by 20 percent in the late-1990s is well worth watching: P.S. I doubt we'll be seeing repeats of the hospital demolition which comes at 2:19. P.P.S. Perhaps the most striking part of the film is Tom Bradby's conclusion: "We [in Britain] are almost certainly going to have to make this journey.  But have British politicians - any of them - really even begun to prepare us?"  Why so striking?  Well, because it's another sign that the media are countenancing even greater cuts than the politicians are talking about.

A question of commitment

From our UK edition

Punchy stuff from Michael Fallon in today's Telegraph.  The Tory deputy chairman of the Treasury Select Committee sets out five ways for his party to "get real" over public spending cuts.  Over at ConservativeHome, Tim Montgomerie dwells on perhaps the most striking of those five: a recommendation that the Tories should think again about national pay bargaining in the public sector.  But, for those interested in interal Tory politics, Fallon's first point also stands out: "No, if we really want to cut public spending, there are five things we need to do. The first is to convince the shadow cabinet. There's little evidence that it has the faintest idea of the commitment needed.

More fuel for the fire of leadership speculation

From our UK edition

So the Daily Mail has another anti-Brown plot rumour for the collection; this one based around the idea that a "Gordon must go" candidate could run for a seat on the PLP's Parliamentary Committee: "Rebels are planning to put up a candidate for the Parliamentary Committee, a panel of senior backbenchers which meets once a week with the Prime Minister, when MPs return to Westminster next month. The 'coup candidate' will run on a single platform - a call for Mr Brown to stand aside and let someone else lead Labour into the General Election... ...MPs will then be able to vote in secret for Mr Brown to stand down, without needing to go public with their views.