Peter Hoskin

Monday

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 29 September – 5 October

From our UK edition

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

A new front-runner

From our UK edition

As Iain Dale points out, Harriet Harman has overtaken David Miliband as the bookies' favourite to succeed Gordon Brown.  Here's the full list from Ladbrokes: Harriet Harman --- 3/1 David Miliband --- 7/1 Jack Straw --- 5/1 Jon Cruddas --- 8/1 Alan Johnson --- 8/1 James Purnell --- 12/1 John Denham --- 12/1 Alan Milburn --- 16/1 Ed Balls --- 16/1 John Reid --- 16/1 Andy Burnham --- 20/1 Ed Miliband --- 20/1 Caroline Flint --- 25/1 John Hutton --- 25/1 Yvette Cooper --- 25/1 And you can read our profile of Harman here.

Peter Hoskin

Has the ‘novice’ line worked?

From our UK edition

For a few months now, Cameron and Osborne have led Brown and Darling in poll questions on economic competence.  Today's ComRes poll for the Daily Politics ends that trend.  Answering the question "Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain's economy through the current downturn?", 36 percent of respondents said the Labour pair, 30 percent the Tory pair. It's the first substantive sign that Brown's "I am the right man to steer us through these dark times" positioning at party conference - encapusulated by the "novice" dig at Cameron and Miliband - has hit home with voters.  And another reminder that the Tories need to work hard to counter the accusation when they gather in Birmingham.

Peter Hoskin

One for the Presidential Debate junkies

From our UK edition

It's still doubtful whether Presidential Debate junkies will get their fix tonight.  But here's something to tide them over: footage of the very first televised Presidential Debate - between Kennedy and Nixon - which took place 48 years ago today.  It lacks the two candidates' opening and closing statements (for a full transcript, click here), but there's still plenty to savour - from Nixon glowering to the Mad Men stylings.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Another Clegg plan backfires

From our UK edition

If you recall, one of Nick Clegg's recent Big Ideas was for the Lib Dems to cold call some 250,000 households and play a pre-recorded message to their occupants.  It didn't seem like the cleverest move at the time - who would want to be pestered by an automated party political phone call in the evening? - but it seems downright stupid now that the ICO has ruled that the practice is in breach of privacy laws, and that the Lib Dems would face prosecution if they continued it. Sure, it's hardly an earth-shattering ruling in itself.  But it fuels the the idea that Clegg is a calamity for his party - the Wile E. Coyote-esque leader, whose devices to stop the other parties in their tracks always end up blowing up in his own face.

Peter Hoskin

A downturn milestone

From our UK edition

The Irish economy has become the first in the EU to officially slide into recession.  Here in the UK, we're most probably in the middle of one already, but we'll have to wait a while longer yet for the official figures to confirm it.

Peter Hoskin

Will the Labour poll boost stick?

From our UK edition

So, today's YouGov poll for the Sun records a 7 point post-conference boost for Labour.  The Tories are now on 41 percent (down 3 from last month); Labour on 31 percent (up 7); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (down 4).  And there's some good news for Brown personally, too.  39 percent of respondents want him to stay in No.10 - up 10 from last month.   It's not entirely unexpected.  Although I found it less than impressive, Brown's speech did get generally good notices in the press.  And pundits are already picking up on 'the Sarah Effect'.  The question now, though, is will the Labour gains stick?  There are three major reasons suggesting that they won't: 1) Some of the below-headline findings are less-than-favourable for Brown.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Is another Darling U-turn on the cards?

From our UK edition

Today's Standard reports that Alistair Darling is set to back down over his plans to increase vehicle excise duty.  It's hardly surprising.  The proposal was always likely to prompt a backbench rebellion as well as public outcry - two things that the Brown Government can ill afford, particularly at the moment. I imagine that No.s 10 and 11 will try and spin any concessions as a "recognition that British people need supporting in the current economic climate".  But if the 10p tax fiasco taught us anything, it's that voters rightly remember who to blame for the original proposal rather than who to "thank" for the U-turn.  Labour certainly shouldn't expect a post-back down poll boost.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s speech: live blog

From our UK edition

1400: Welcome to our live blog of Gordon Brown's conference speech.  No sign of the man yet - he's expected to take to the stage in around ten minutes time.  Early word is that his speech is going to be of the "personal vision" rather than the "specific policy annoucement" variety.  We can, though, expect some more details on that internet announcement. Stay tuned, then, for my thoughts, as well as analysis from James and Fraser in the conference hall.  Just keep refreshing the page to get the latest. 1410: This just in from Jon Cruddas: "We await the speech. Meanwhile rumours abound. My favourite- the existence of a Caroline Flint martyrdom video filmed by Hazel on a hand held in a Salford cave. In the hothouse of a conference this is being taken seriously.

Peter Hoskin

The numbers are stacked against Brown

From our UK edition

With none of the Cabinet yet stepping out of the shadows and confirming their opposition to Brown, this tidbit from Paul Waugh is worth noting: "...the Cabinet is roughly split three ways. One camp is the die-in-the-ditchers, another the wait-and-seers, another the get-him-nowers. That means that GB has at most a third of the Cabinet totally on board. Not a nice situation to be in, no matter what he says in his speech today.

Peter Hoskin

Miliband’s Heseltine moment: a climb-down

From our UK edition

Having slept on it, I feel I might have got a little carried away last night over David Miliband's alleged "Heseltine moment" comment.  It may have indicated that he's thinking of doing a Heseltine, but it was also ambiguous enough as to be inconclusive.  As Iain Dale so rightly points out, "It really would have been a big story if he had said: 'I wish I had gone further and done a Heseltine.'" And that's assuming the story's true in the first place.  I suspect it might be.  But the BBC lack one crucial element: hard proof.  That fact has allowed Miliband to simply deny the allegation, and return to the "I completely support Gordon Brown as leader" line.  Enough to maintain the illusion of unity for now.

Peter Hoskin

The Blairs are fair game on the Labour website

From our UK edition

Sure, Labour Central - the revamped Labour website's news aggregator - is "neither responsible for, nor necessarily endorses the content of the Website to which you will go after clicking" their news links.  But they still pick the links nonetheless - which generally means that all the stories are completely neutral/positive towards Labour.  Odd, then, that their current top news pick (see screenshot to the left) is a story which starts: "How very different from the Blair years. Cherie Blair's annual tour of the conference stalls used to be one of the minor highlights of the Labour conference - a must-attend event for journalists looking for a wacky picture and a salty quote.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Miliband’s Heseltine moment

From our UK edition

Has Miliband just let the leadership cat out of the bag?  The BBC are reporting an overheard conversation between him and his aides, in which he admitted toning down his speech today for fear of having "a Heseltine moment" - a reference to Michael Heseltine's efforts to topple Margaret Thatcher. Short of Miliband resigning and starting a leadership campaign, nothing could quite so emphatically confirm that he wants to usurp Gordon Brown.  And, from this moment forth, his messages of support for the incumbent PM - which were dubious enough anyway - are pretty much meaningless.  The question now is of whether this chance happening will force either Brown's or Miliband's hand.  Can Brown keep Miliband as his Foreign Secretary any longer?

Peter Hoskin

The Labour form book: Harriet Harman

From our UK edition

Coffee House is running a series of posts on the contenders to succeed Gordon Brown as Labour party leader.  The latest is below.  Click here for our profile of David Miliband, here for Jon Cruddas, here for Alan Johnson, and here for Jack Straw. Harriet Harman, 58, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party among other roles Pros A complete change: On the surface of things, what greater change could there be from Gordon Brown than a female Prime Minister - and an ebullient one, at that?  Even this superficial difference can make a "renewal" agenda sound that much more convincing to the electorate, and it could also steal the thunder from Conservative efforts to attract the female vote and to increase the number of women MPs.

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 22 September – 28 September

From our UK edition

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

Peter Hoskin

Would this be Miliband’s first Cabinet?

From our UK edition

Over at his excellent blog, the Evening Standard's Paul Waugh has posted a list he was given (by "one Blairite") which purports to outline what David Milband's Cabinet would look like.  Here it is in full: Prime Minister - David Miliband Foreign Secretary - James Purnell Chancellor - John Hutton Home Secretary - Alan Johnson Health Sec - Andy Burnham Education Sec - Jacqui Smith Business Secretary - Ed Balls Defence - Jack Straw Justice - Liam Byrne DIUS - Jim Murphy Work and Pensions - Mike O'Brien Chief Sec to Treasury - Kitty Ussher Transport Sec - Yvette Cooper Environment - Caroline Flint Cabinet Office - Hazel Blears DCLG - Ed Miliband Commons - Harriet Harman Int Devpmt - Pat McFadden Culture - Ben Bradshaw Chief Whip -Tony McNulty As Waugh rightly points out.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Out of the West

From our UK edition

No life of quiet desperation for Ansel Adams (1902-84). He was at his happiest tramping around the sublime countryside of the American West, with a camera and tripod strapped to his back, taking photographs of the mountains, canyons, rivers, forests and clouds he met along the way. And what photographs they are! Their warmth and fine detail are testament to Adams’ unique methods, as well as to his ability to look beyond the surface of things and offer up new visions of old subjects. Much like Walt Whitman’s poetry, they sing: this is America, it is electric. 120 of Adams’ finest works are collated in Quercus’ handsome new volume.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Grumblings from the grassroots

From our UK edition

LabourHome's poll of Labour members - featured on the cover of today's Independent - has caused quite a stir.  UK polling report summarises the criticism that a few Labour figures have levelled against it - i.e. that it's not sufficiently scientific - but also points out that similar polls by ConservativeHome have proved quite accurate in the past.  Either way, the results are well worth a read.  Here are some of the headline findings: 46.2% want Gordon Brown to lead Labour into the next election. 53.8% would prefer someone else.   45.3% believe a change of leader would improve Labour's General Election prospects. 27.7% believe a change would harm Labour's prospects. 27% believe it would make no difference.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

An indebted nation

From our UK edition

As Fraser and I point out in this week's cover piece, Brown's major legacy will be to saddle the next government - and the country - with unprecedented levels of debt.  There's the prospect that around £100 billion of public money will be sunk into Northern Rock; there's another £110 billion set aside for PFI projects, much of which is scandalously kept off the balance sheets; and that's before we get onto the offical total government debt figure of around £600 billion. Problem is, that last figure is set to rise exponentially.

Peter Hoskin

The Labour form book: David Miliband 

From our UK edition

With the Brown premiership on the ropes, Coffee House takes a look at those who might succeed him as party leader.  In the run-up to the Labour Party conference this weekend, we'll be profiling each of the main contenders.  And, once we've got through them, we'll give you the chance to vote on which one you think would be the best for Labour.  We kick things off with the bookies' favourite... David Miliband, 43, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Pros Youth: According to the "Milibama" strategy, Miliband's youthful vim and vigour will go some way to rejuvenating the Labour project itself.  At the very least, it offers a stark contrast to the dour and puritinical Brown.