Peter Hoskin

Monday

Peter Hoskin

A matter of timing

From our UK edition

The tax wars have entered a rather unedifying stage.  Cameron was set to announce the Tory proposal in a press conference at 1000 tomorrow morning.  But then Downing Street announced earlier that Brown's monthly press conference would be at 0930 tomorrow, instead of the usual 1200.  Surely that wouldn't have anything to do with sucking reporters, cameras and TV coverage away from the Tories, would it?  Whatever Brown's intentions, Team Cameron have trumped him by moving their man's press conference to 0830.  Westminster choreography at its finest. One thing's for sure: you can expect much "we got there first" jostling over the next few days.  But, in the end, I suspect the public may pay more attention to the "our tax cut's bigger than yours" posturing.

Peter Hoskin

Go ahead, punk…

From our UK edition

Just to recommend a great debate that's fizzing away over at Comment Central.  On one side there's Daniel Finkelstein, who - I think it's fair to say - is less-than-impressed with what he calls the Lib Dems' "punk" tax cuts, and advocates a more cautious approach.  On the other, there's Nick Clegg, who says those unholy, punk tax-cuts are right for our economically-depressed times. Finkelstein got the ball rolling with this post, in which he takes a jibe at the Lib Dems' tax policy.  Clegg responded here.  I quote a paragraph with largely sums up that response: "Why does Danny think it’s impossible after a decade of spiralling Whitehall spending to find 3% of that money that could be put to a better use?

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s moral obligation

From our UK edition

Good timing from David Cameron.  On the day the papers preempt the official notice that unemployment has risen above 1.8 million - its highest level since 1998 - the Tory leader gives a speech on the subject of mass joblessness. The main message is of how the Tories "will not stand aside" as people lose their jobs, and of how they have a "moral obligation" to help those who become unemployed as a result of the downturn.  It's resonant language, which goes well beyond "we feel your pain"-style platitudes.  And, what's more, it's most likely backed up by a policy package - although we'll have to wait for more details of this Tory tax cut to see what form that will take.

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 10 November – 16 November

From our UK edition

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers' Wall. For those who haven't come across the Wall before, it's a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local paper, to chat about the latest football results.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne warns against “sowing the seeds” of the next crisis

From our UK edition

An effective article from George Osborne in today's FT. Here's the key paragraph on the public finances: "Today, we must let the automatic stabilisers function. But as Lord Burns, former permanent secretary at the Treasury, warned last week, borrowing beyond that without being clear how the bills would be paid would be 'very dangerous at this point'. 'We begin from a position of a structural deficit. Adding to that structural deficit can only increase the problems subsequently,' he said. I agree. Spending our way out of recession will not work. Targeted tax cuts would help but they must be properly funded. Any tax cuts must not permanently increase the structural deficit and must be combined with a strategy to reduce it over time.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Who will win the tax war?

From our UK edition

It now seems that Labour and the Tories are willing to follow the Lib Dem lead on tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners.  Yesterday's papers had news that Brown & Darling are preparing a range of cuts for possible inclusion in the forthcoming pre-Budget report.  And today's Telegraph reveals that Cameron & Co. are now lining up a preemptive tax cut of their own. There are strong moral, fiscal and political arguments in favour of targeted tax cuts, so - on paper, at least - it's A Good Thing that all three main parties have hit on the same position.  But dividing lines remain, and they should ensure that this situation reduces into a tax war rather than a new consensus.  Chief among them is the way in which the tax cuts will be funded.

Peter Hoskin

<em>In Memoriam</em>

From our UK edition

A poppy rests on a memorial for the fallen and missing of World War I, in Ypres, Belgium.  Today, thousands of remembrance services will take place across Britain, ahead of the 90th Anniversary of the armistice on Tuesday.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Predictions you can count on

From our UK edition

The Spectator's own James Forsyth has just been revealed as the top mainstream media performer in Politics Home's Presidential Election Predictor Competition.  Along with Rob Schlesinger, of the US News and World Report, and Chuck Todd, of NBC'S First Read, James correctly predicted the election outcome in 18 of 20 battleground states. Congratulations, James! For James's continuing views on US politics, head over to Americano.

Peter Hoskin

What are the odds? | 7 November 2008

From our UK edition

For Gordon Brown, one of the greatest boons of the Labour triumph in Glenrothes is that it gives him an opportunity to tighten his stranglehold on the economic narrative.  All he need do is spin the byelection as a referendum on the Government's approach to the downturn, and the Labour victory as a public endorsement of that approach.  Unsurprisingly, it's an opportunity he's duly taking. Now, with the main political battleground of the next few years likely to be the economy, these moments are pivotal.  Brown can capitalise here, and - thanks to the reinvigorated Labour spin operation, and the Tories' confused economic message - most probably will.  This doesn't make it Labour's general election to lose, as Denis McShane is now mischievously claiming.

Peter Hoskin

Are the knives out for Osborne?

From our UK edition

How much have the Deripaska affair and the Tories' flimsy response to the economic and financial crises affected George Osborne's standing within his party?  A fair bit, if this survey of party members by ConservativeHome is anything to go by.  I quote from their findings: "...support for the Shadow Chancellor has also plunged among the Tory grassroots.  Our latest survey of over 1,600 rank-and-file members found that 49% were satisfied with Mr Osborne but 47% were dissatisfied; a net positive rating of just 2%. That is a huge shift since last month when George Osborne enjoyed a net positive rating of +70%." Osborne currently enjoys the support of David Cameron.

Peter Hoskin

Glenrothes: the aftermath

From our UK edition

To some extent, Gordon Brown deserves the plaudits he's getting this morning.  Yes, the Labour victory in Glenrothes will be have been catalysed by a number of factors - the quality of their candidate, Lindsay Roy; the financial and economic crises; the deployment, cynical though it may have been, of Sarah Brown; and the failings of the opposition campaigns.  But in the background to all that was an uncharacteristic risk by our PM - his decision to closely involve himself in the campaign, made when party support for him was at a low ebb.  And it paid off. The post mortem now begins for the other parties.  All will be asking questions and having questions asked of them.

Peter Hoskin

Glenrothes by-election: the numbers

From our UK edition

Lindsay Roy (Labour) --- 19,946 votes (55.11 % of total vote, up 3.20 percentage points on 2006) Peter Grant (SNP) --- 13,206 votes (36.49%, up 13.13 points) Maurice Golden (Conservatives) --- 1,381 votes (3.82%, down 3.82 points) Harry Wills (Lib Dems) --- 947 votes (2.62%, down 10.04 points) Of course, the main talking point from this will be the surprise Labour victory, but expect the hefty 10 percentage-point drop in Lib Dem support to cause much consternation on Cowley Street.  The Tories won't be too pleased with their showing either.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Who will win in Glenrothes?

From our UK edition

I'm always slightly wary about calling elections, so I'll refrain from doing so now.  But here's a thread for CoffeeHousers to leave their predictions.  At the moment, the betting markets suggest that the SNP will triumph.  But a PHI100 poll earlier today recorded a distinct split between politicians and the media on this - a majority of media respondents predicted an SNP victory, whereas a majority of politicians predicted a Labour victory.  Check out Political Betting's take on that split here. Polls close at 2200, and we should have a result by 0030, Friday morning.  Tune into Coffee House then to found out which party's triumphed.

Peter Hoskin

Spot the hypocrisy

From our UK edition

Exhibit A: Yvette Cooper urges the banks to pass the interest rate cut on to borrowers. Exhibit B: The state-owned Northern Rock withdraws tracker mortgages - which follow the movements of the base rate - to avoid passing rate cuts on to new borrowers.

Peter Hoskin

The birth of a one-liner

From our UK edition

Over the past few weeks, I've been critical of Team Osborne's inability to distil their economic message - and their attacks on Gordon Brown - into simple language that can sink into the public consciousness.  But, to be fair, Osborne's just coined a fairly effective one-liner on the interest rate cut, that deserves highlighting: "It may be a shot in the arm but it shows how sick the patient is." I'm sure there'll be occasion for the shadow chancellor to wheel this one out again, in future - and not just in the case of further rate cuts.  Now all he need do is figure out some zingers which articulate the Tory reponse to the financial and economic crises.

Peter Hoskin

Now that’s a cut

From our UK edition

So, those pushing for a 1 percent cut in interest rates have got their wish - and then some.  The Bank has just announced a 1.5 percent cut in base rates, bringing them down to 3 percent.  That's the biggest cut since 1981. Now what does this - frankly, quite astonishing - move tell us? Two things, in particular: 1) That the Bank feels that the doomsayers - the people like David Blanchflower, with their "cut rates or die" prognoses - are most probably right.  Things are worse than the Bank initially thought, and they're trying to play catch-up. And, 2) that the officials really, really want significant cuts to be passed on by banks to their customers.

Peter Hoskin

Does the ‘Brown bounce’ end here?

From our UK edition

And so the polls have opened in an election closer to home: the Glenrothes byelection.  We should see a result by the early hours of tomorrow morning, but the current expectation is that the SNP will come out narrowly on top.  Both the betting markets and party insiders are playing down Labour's chances.  Whilst Alex Salmond is sounding typically bullish. Will a Labour loss mark the end of this latest 'Brown bounce'?  Almost certainly - and not least of all because Brown has invested himself, and his wife, so heavily in this campaign.  But the question remains of what the rebound will look like.  Will Labour's opinion poll rating start plummeting almost instantly?  Will talk of Labour leadership challenges start brewing once again?

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 5 November 2008

From our UK edition

And so back to the relative drudgery of Westminster politics with Coffee House's live blog of PMQs.  Not that Obama's election victory won't feature in the to-and-fro between our party leaders - as Ben Brogan reveals, Brown's going to use the opportunity to continue casting Obama as a "fellow progressive" rather than one of those pesky novices.  And what else?  Well, I wouldn't be too surprised if our PM makes a lot out of his Saving the World dash around the Middle East - whilst Cameron's goal will be to undermine that narrative.  All will be revealed from 1200 onwards. 1204: Brown starts with condolences for fallen British troops, and congratulations for Barack Obama.  "The Government looks forward to working with the new administration".