Peter Hoskin

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Budget statement live blog

From our UK edition

1232, PH: Darling's started.  Stripey tie and gloomy face... 1233, JGF: Darling looks nervous and uncomfortable.  His tone is sombre. 1235, PH: Darling expects the economy to start growing "by the end of this year". 1236, PH: Darling's giving the global spiel, letting us know how much exports have fallen in Germany and Japan... 1237, PH: He claims that the £20 billion of "help" announced in the PBR is "coming through now". The Tories' "Labour isn't working" attack denies that. 1238, PH: Now Darling's taking credit for the "independent" Bank of England's interest rate cuts - "cheaper mortgages and loans". 1239, PH: On the G20 summit: "We agreed to take whatever action is necessary..."  Most annoying soundbite of the year?

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 22 April 2009

From our UK edition

Kicking off any minute now... 1201: And we're off.  First question from David Simpson, asking what scrapping the Barnett Formula would mean for the regions.  Brown says spending allocations "based on need" and that he thinks that's right. 1203: Derek Twigg pushes Brown to "ensure" that all information relating to the Hillsborough disaster is released as soon as possible.  Brown says "we will look very carefully at what we can do".  1205: Cameron leads on today's unemployment figures.  He asks Brown to confirm whether what "we've seen this calendar year is the fastest rise in unemployment in our history."  This keys into the "Labour isn't working" theme.  Brown responds "That's why we are prepared to invest...

Peter Hoskin

Calling on CoffeeHousers

From our UK edition

You know the score by now - Alistair Darling's Budget statement will barely represent what's actually in the Budget.  Even the Red Book itself will try to hide all the Brownian ruses and deceits, great and small, in the fine print and appendices.  Here at Coffee House, we'll be doing our best to catch the Government out, but we'd appreciate any insights that CoffeeHousers can proffer. The Budget will be available to download from here once Darling's made his address, so - if you have the time and inclination - please do flick through it and let us know in the comments section to this thread if you've spotted any sneaky details. Stay tuned to Coffee House for wall-to-wall coverage.

Peter Hoskin

Will Darling’s forecasts have investors running scared?

From our UK edition

Of course, Darling's big forecasting error in the PBR was his claim that the UK economy would start recovering by the third quarter of this year.  But, ahead of today's Budget, it's worth highlighting the borrowing forecasts he's made.  As Robert Peston indicates in his latest blog post, a year makes an awful lot of difference: "In the last budget, a year ago, Alistair Darling projected public-sector net borrowing for 2009/10 of £38bn. Come the autumn and his pre-budget report, he projected that net borrowing for that period would be more than three times greater, at £118bn.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Clean slate politics

From our UK edition

Hm. There's some speculation 'round Westminster that Darling may be gearing up to apologise during his Budget statement tomorrow.  Indeed, as Jonathan Isaby pointed out earlier, the bookies are even offering odds on us hearing the S-word - and those odds are getting shorter by the hour.  At first, I wasn't convinced.  After all, Brown seems to have an allergy to apologising - his "mea culpa" over the McBride affair was distinctly equivocal, and remember his mid-air tantrum about taking some responsibility for the financial crisis? – and I just couldn't see Darling boldly going where his boss hadn't gone before. But, having thought about it a bit, I'm not so sure.

Peter Hoskin

A big poll boost for the Lib Dems

From our UK edition

The polls sure are volatile in the wake of Smeargate.  The weekend brought hefty leads for the Tories of 17 and 19 percent.  Yesterday, an ICM poll recorded a 4 percent drop in support for Cameron & Co, although they remained 10 points ahead of Labour.  And, today, the latest Ipsos-MORI political monitor shows a massive jump in support for the Lib Dems.  Here are the headline figures: CONSERVATIVES --- 41 percent (down 1 percentage point) LABOUR --- 28 percent (down 5) LIB DEMS --- 22 percent (up 8) One theory is that the Lib Dems - who have emerged from recent political scandals relatively unscathed - are benefitting from disillusionment with the two main parties.  Although, I'd say it's too early to judge.

Peter Hoskin

A review for all occasions

From our UK edition

The official response to the latest government security blunder - captured in the last line of this snippet from the Sun - is straight out of Yes, Minister: "CULTURE Secretary Andy Burnham left a briefcase containing confidential documents on a train yesterday. The minister’s blunder triggered a security breach alert after he arrived at London’s Euston Station from the North. But the case was retrieved by a passenger on the train’s next trip and handed in to cops when it reached Glasgow. Documents, believed to be Cabinet papers marked “restricted” were found inside, according to police sources. Mr Burnham apologised for the blunder and ordered a review of security procedures in his department.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

How much fiscal tightening will we see?

From our UK edition

One of the questions doing the rounds in Wesminster today is whether Alistair Darling's £15 billion of efficiency savings represents all - or most of - the fiscal tightening that will be in Wednesday's Budget.  So far, the reports coming out of the Treasury are inconclusive, although it's worth pointing out this passage in the FT: "[A] wait-and-see approach, Mr Darling is likely to argue, will give a future government more time to restore prudence to the public finances without killing any economic recovery. The Treasury believes that economic uncertainty is so great at the moment that it makes no sense to set a detailed strategy for deficit reduction when any such plans might need to be ripped up in a month’s time.

Peter Hoskin

Darling’s £15 billion to keep up appearances

From our UK edition

So Wednesday's Budget will feature some £15 billion of spending cuts.  Here's how the Times reports the latest bit of early information: "The Treasury has already said it is seeking efficiency savings of £5 billion by 2011. Mr Darling is expected to say that should be extended by a further £10 billion over the following three years. There will be huge implications for public-sector jobs as 'back office' functions are pared back. Only frontline services such as education will have budgets protected." You sense this is a rhetorical device, as much as anything; an opportunity for the Government to say that they're taking the "tough decisions" to "get our economy back on track".

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

The Tories should step around any more 45p tax traps

From our UK edition

More and more details are emerging about this week's Budget, including this eyecatching snippet in today's Sunday Times: "Darling is also considering new postelection tax rises, which could include beefing up the planned supertax on higher earners. Last year the chancellor announced the introduction in 2011 of a 45% top rate of income tax for people earning more than £150,000. Darling has come under pressure from Labour colleagues to reduce this new top-rate threshold to £100,000 – a move that would lead to higher tax bills for 500,000 high earners." Once again, this would set a 45p tax trap for the Tories - if Cameron & Co.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Smeargate II: the dots get joined

From our UK edition

Seems like Guido had his crosshairs trained on some other Labour insiders.  Tomorrow's Sunday Times and News of the World are both running stories which implicate other members of Brown's coterie in the plot to smear top Tories. According to the NotW report, a new email reveals that Ray Collins - the general secretary of the Labour party - chaired a meeting about the Red Rag website in Charlie Whelan's office.  Whelan, Damian McBride, Derek Draper, Andrew Dodgshon and, ahem, the Mirror's Kevin Maguire also attended.  Sounds like quite a crowd.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Your questions for Eric Pickles | 17 April 2009

From our UK edition

It's been a week and a bit since we asked CoffeeHousers to put forward their questions for Eric Pickles.  We've since picked out a selection, and they've now been put to the Tory chairman.  He'll get back to us next week. Anyway, here are the questions: Hugh How would a Conservative government reform the expenses system? DM Do you NOW understand why so many of the Question Time audience reacted as they did to you? Nicholas What exactly, if anything, will a Conservative government do to reverse and rectify the increasingly intrusive powers of the state and the erosion by the New Labour hegemony of the traditional freedoms, protections and privacy once enjoyed by all the English people? The answer to this question will be paramount to my voting intentions.

Peter Hoskin

Clearing up the mess

From our UK edition

Martin Kettle has some very sensible advice for Gordon Brown in the Guardian today: "Proactive leadership is badly needed, not for Labour's cause, but for the cause of politics. Brown should bring the publication of MPs' receipts forward. The Commons should take the hit now, as part of an active strategy, rather than wait for it as part of a passive one. He should pre-empt Kelly too. He should go to David Cameron and Nick Clegg next week, hammer out some new rules on expenses on an all-party basis and then drive them through parliament before the June elections if possible. He could also take the opportunity to put Sir Hayden Phillips's review of party funding into early effect on an all-party basis. Without interventionism of this kind Brown will simply remain the victim of events...

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Is this enough?

From our UK edition

So here it is. Brown has finally uttered the S-word over Smeargate. This is how the indispensable PoliticsHome reports it: Speaking in Glasgow, the Prime Minister said: "I am sorry about what happened. I have said all along when I saw this first I was horrified, I was shocked and I was very angry indeed." He said he wanted to reassure people everything was being done to clean up politics in Britain and stressed he had written to all those affected to express his regret. "We have ensured there are new rules to ensure this cannot happen again," he said. Asked if the buck stopped with him, he said: "I take full responsibility for what happens, that is why the person responsible went immediately.

Peter Hoskin

Saying sorry

From our UK edition

Matthew Parris's notebook in the Times today contains an anecdote which deserves repeating: "Twenty years ago a political aide working at the heart of the office of the leader of the Conservative Party was exposed as having dispatched a wholly inappropriate communication. It was to a woman who had written complaining to Margaret Thatcher about her council house. The aide had replied that she should be grateful to have a taxpayer-subsidised house at all. Splashed across the press and coming as it had from the Boss's office, the letter was rude and stupid. Thatcher knew what to do. 'I'm so very sorry' was a headline on the front page of the Daily Mirror on March 30, 1979. She had sent by courier a handwritten apology to the woman.

Peter Hoskin

There may be (more) trouble ahead

From our UK edition

And so the day begins with reports that the government may be in line for additional trouble and embarrassment.  First, there are murmurings that more smear emails might be about to hit the public domain - and ones which could, in the words of the Times, "gravely embarrass ministers and undermine attempts to portray Mr McBride as a lone rogue".  So far, the Government has been getting by on plausible deniability.  Anything which confirms the implausiblity of that could wreak untold damage on Brown. And then there's the reappearance of the Damian Green scandal, courtesy of an MPs' report on the matter.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

The tragedy of Smeargate

From our UK edition

Sure, he wears his politics on his sleeve, but the Mirror's Kevin Maguire has not done himself credit during Smeargate.  James picked up on his blog post at the weekend, which made merry with one of the slurs against Cameron.  And now his column today contains this line: Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd have thought the tragedy of Smeargate is that we have a No.10 operation which regards unrestrained bullying and innuendo as legitimate political methods.  In light of that, it may seem superfluous to pull out one sentence from Maguire's writing.  But, so long as the disgraceful actions of Brown and his inner circle are watered down and excused, then the culture of intimidation in Westminster will continue to thrive.

Peter Hoskin

Brutality exposed

From our UK edition

On the twentieth anniversary of the Hillsborough Disaster, the footage of a policeman beating a woman attending a vigil in memory of Ian Tomlinson (see above) is especially resonant.  If the police service recaptured any of the public's faith in the years since 1989 - and that's a huge if - then you feel that has now been completely undone.  The disgraceful actions of a few Met officers will linger long in the national memory, and skew perceptions of police forces across the country. Don't get me wrong: I'm a big supporter of the police - they have an extremely difficult job, and there are plenty of professional, dedicated policemen and women out there.  But it's clear that the service requires deep reform, and that certain unsavoury aspects need rooting out.