Peter Hoskin

The Tories expand their ambitions

From our UK edition

Opposite their interview with William Hague, the Times offers a useful insight into the Tories' electoral strategy: "The increasing likelihood of victory for the Conservatives at the next election has prompted the party to consider diverting resources away from seats it believes are already in the bag to those previously regarded as unrealistic prospects. They include seats such as Dagenham, which is currently 164 on the hit list. The Conservatives would need a swing of just over 8 per cent to capture the seat, which was held by Labour’s Jon Cruddas at the last election with a majority of 7,605. Other seats that could benefit from the new funding priorities include Luton South, number 140 on the list, and some seats in Kent.

Hague talks referenda

From our UK edition

The headline-grabber from William Hague's interview with the Times seems to be his admission that "it is likely that [the Tories] are going to be able to win the next election".  But this section rather caught my eye: "And for the first time he hinted that a referendum could still be promised in the Tory manifesto, even if the treaty had been ratified. Previously the Tories have said that they would not let matters rest in the event of the treaty being ratified but have declined to expand on what they might do. Mr Hague said that, if it were not ratified by the time of a Tory victory, there would be a referendum 'in the opening months' and a Bill preparing for the vote would be ready.

Dinner time

From our UK edition

This story, via Sky, is too bizarre not to mention: "A Serbian union official has chopped off his finger and eaten it in a protest over wages to show how desperate he and other workers are. 'We, the workers have nothing to eat, we had to seek some sort of alternative food and I gave them an example,' Zoran Bulatovic said. 'It hurt like hell,' he added. Mr Bulatovic, a union leader at the Raska Holding textile factory in Novi Pazar, southwest Serbia, used a hacksaw to cut off most of his left-hand little finger. Mr Bulatovic decided to act after his deputy, a single mother of three, said she would chop off her finger. 'I could not allow her to do that,' he explained." I can't decide whether he's heroic, psychotic or both.

A glimpse inside the Tory war room

From our UK edition

The Tories have just launched the first in their new series of "War room Briefings"; videos which go behind-the-scenes of their campaign operation.  It's not earth-shattering stuff - but a nice use of the internet nonetheless, and good viewing for us political anoraks: P.S. While we're talking online videos, the Economist's Bagehot blog has a post on how YouTube is "helping to finish off" Brown.

The ID card scrap

From our UK edition

There's much ado about ID cards 'round Westminster today.  Reports in this morning's papers suggest that the Government is thinking about scrapping the £5 billion project, to help combat the debt crisis.  The Independent even has a "senior Cabinet minister" telling them that, "My sense is that ID cards will not go ahead.  We have to find savings somewhere, and it would be better to shelve schemes like this that aren't popular."  Yet the PM's spokesman has just briefed the lobby that the government "remains committed" to the scheme. To my mind, this highlights the political difficulty that the government will face in dealing with the debt crisis.

Trouble in the Labour Party over expenses

From our UK edition

The more that emerges about Brown's YouTube calamity on expenses, the more stupid it seems.  The immediate theory was that Brown released it to wrongfoot David Cameron and Nick Clegg.  I'd go along with that.  But it turns out that his own party didn't know anything about it either.  This in today's Guardian. Downing Street's handling of the matter was also strongly criticised by Labour MPs at a lengthy meeting of the parliamentary Labour party last night. During what was described as a 'fractious' meeting, MPs criticised Brown for making his announcement on a YouTube broadcast last Tuesday without any reference to them. Some MPs had raised the matter at their last meeting the day before Brown's broadcast... ...

A lack of guidance

From our UK edition

If you're wading through all the swine flu coverage this morning, I'd recommend you take time to read the article by Dr John Crippen - the pseudonymous author of NHS Blog Doctor - in the Guardian.  It hints at a disorganised response to the illness in the UK: "Today is one of those days when family doctors want to retire to a darkened room and put an ice pack on their head. Over breakfast, I saw the newspaper headline: 'Swine flu deaths spark worldwide health alert'. I have not been 'alerted'. None of my partners has been 'alerted' either. There is a general assumption that GPs will already have received definitive guidance from on high. No such guidance has arrived.

A return for Reid?

From our UK edition

I know, I know - there are only so many Labour reshuffle rumours a readership can take.  But I'm still quite surprised that this report in the Mirror hasn't received a greater pick-up across the blogosphere today.  It claims that Gordon Brown's preparing to replace Harriet Harman as Labour Party chairman with none other than John Reid: "It is believed the ex-Home Secretary bruiser will replace Harriet Harman in a June 12 reshuffle - so allowing him to take on the Tories on TV and radio in the election run-up. With No.10's blessing, he led the Labour attack after the Budget and defended the 50 per cent tax rate on those earning more than £150,000." Hm.

The Tories take on Brown over the Lisbon Treaty

From our UK edition

Let's get the bad stuff out of the way first.  To my eyes, the poster accompanying the Tories' new EU Referendum campaign isn't especially powerful.  It lacks the directness and iconic simplicity of that great "Gordon Brown's debt" poster, and I doubt it will, by itself, capture the imagination of people who aren't keyed into the whole Lisbon Treaty backstory.   But the campaign itself is good, effective politics.  By highlighting the injustice that Brown committed over Lisbon, the Tories put him on the backfoot during the campaign for the European elections and, in turn, limit the Government's capacity to make merry over "Tory splits," as they've been desperate to do since the return of Ken Clarke to frontbench politics.

A sprinkling of Sugar

From our UK edition

Plenty to ponder in the latest YouGov poll for the Evening Standard.  Its headline finding puts the Tories 12 points ahead in London; with Cameron & Co. on 45 percent, Labour on 33 percent and the Lib Dems on 16 percent.  Sure, that's less of an advantage than the Tories enjoy nationally, but it would still see them winning the capital - with 40 of the 74 contested seats - for  the "first time in a generation".  The Standard reckons that ministers such as Tony McNulty, Ann Keen and Sadiq Khan would be among the Labour casualties. And then there are some eyecatching numbers surrounding the Mayoralty.  The rise and rise of Boris continues, with him increasing his lead over Ken Livingstone since the pair ran against each other in last year's election.

An historic clear-out?

From our UK edition

I wrote yesterday that things may be about to get much worse for Brown on the publication of MPs' expense receipts.  To be fair, signs are that Parliament as a whole will take a kicking; although - by virtue of them having more MPs, and as they form the incumbent government - you still sense that Labour will feel the most pain.  Today's Mail has a neat sidebox outlining some of the main nasties that will crop up - helicopter rides and holiday homes - and the concern among some MPs that affairs will be revealed by hotel receipts.  A "senior" Lib Dem frontbencher, worried for his future, is even said to have asked Nick Clegg for assurances that no one would be sacked when the expenses are published.  Clegg refused to give those assurances.

It’s all over now, Gordon Brown

From our UK edition

I wouldn't care to be a laser printer in No.10 this morning.  The papers are absolutely crammed with stories that are embarrassing, or just downright damaging, for Gordon Brown.  The Mail on Sunday claims that relations between Brown and Alistair Darling are at an "all time low", and reveals that the PM went into a rage during his meeting with David Cameron and Nick Clegg about expenses.  The Sunday Times reports that a minister has placed a "large bet" on Brown not winning the next election.  Both Andrew Rawsley and Martin Ivens make the point that New Labour is dead.  And, to top it all off, John Rentoul calls for our Dear Leader to step down. The problem for Brown is that his opportunities for some sort of comeback are behind him.

Introducing the Coffee House national debt counter

From our UK edition

So what does Gordon Brown's debt crisis actually look like?  Cast your eyes to the right-hand side of the Coffee House homepage and you'll be able to find out.  We've added a new "debt counter" to the site, which reveals the UK's spiralling national debt and the burden it places on each family.  It started at £609.1billion on 5 April 2009, and it's going up, up, up by around £5,700 per second.   Hopefully, this counter will shine a light on what is not only a fiscal crisis but a moral one too.  Future taxpayers will be left picking up the tab for the £billions and - perhaps, one day - £trillions that compose the black hole in our public finances. As I write, the overall figure stands around £619.

The dynamics of Tory economic policy

From our UK edition

Iain Martin's Telegraph column contains a noteworthy insight about the whos and whats of Tory economic policy: "David Cameron's colleagues report that this year the Tory leader has effectively taken over the party's economic policy. The penny does appear to be dropping, gradually, that if the country is going to pay off any of the debt he decries as an obstacle to recovery, then spending will need to fall steeply." Of course, you could say that Cameron should be in charge of Tory economic policy anyway, what with him being the party leader and the economy being the defining issue of current British politics.  But this still backs up reports that George Osborne's influence and authority has waned, especially in the wake of the Deripaska affair.

Pickles responds | 23 April 2009

From our UK edition

Here are Eric Pickles' answers to the questions posed by CoffeeHousers: Hugh How would a Conservative government reform the expenses system? The whole system of expenses is poisoning the trust in politics. I used to think that transparency and auditing was the key, I have now changed my mind. The whole issue needs to be on a proper footing independent of parliament and at a reduced cost. MP’s should not be able to decide the rules or vote on pay and conditions. Nicholas What exactly, if anything, will a Conservative government do to reverse and rectify the increasingly intrusive powers of the state and the erosion by the New Labour hegemony of the traditional freedoms, protections and privacy once enjoyed by all the English people?

The dangerous inheritance

From our UK edition

Gary Duncan makes a couple of important points about borrowing in today's Times: "If, as seems all too likely, Mr Darling's gamble on growth fails to pay off, then the eventual peak in the Government's borrowing could leap above £200 billion. Some authoritative forecasters believe it could soar to £230 billion, or a stunning 16 percent of national income. Worse still, even the Treasury's own numbers suggest that about three quarters of the predicted borrowing peak of 12 percent of national income is not owing to the 'cyclical' ups and downs of the economy, but to more permanent, structual factors. Thus, even if strong growth does emerge, borrowing will not fall away as rapidly as it has climbed.

Labour’s debt crisis becomes a catastrophe

From our UK edition

Debt, debt, debt.  That's the real story of today's Budget, as Brown has created an even worse mess than expected.  Sure, £606 billion of borrowing over the next 4 years isn't all that surprising, but Darling's optimistic growth forecasts are.  They mean that the Treasury is probably overestimating tax receipts for the next few years, and - in turn - that the real borrowing figures will be even worse than those in the Red Book.   Something tells you that the government knows this.  As Robert Peston points out over at his blog, gilt sales are forecast at £220 billion this year - well above the £180 billion or so that most analysts thought we'd see.  The markets will be wondering: just why does the Treasury need to borrow so much now?

Darling’s dodgy forecasts

From our UK edition

Lightning does strike twice.  Following the dodgy forecasts in last year's PBR, Alistair Darling has repeated the trick - giving growth predictions in the Budget that are optimistic to the point of madness.  Ok, you can quibble over whether the economy will start growing by the "end of this year", but 1.25 percent growth in 2010 and 3.5 percent growth from 2011 onwards is dubious in the extreme.  As Jeff Randall said on Sky just now, "no-one in the City believes that." The difference this time round is that the political fallout is further in the future.  When Darling made his PBR forecasts, he had to start backtracking - embarrassingly - almost immediately.  With forecasts for 2011 and beyond, the backtracking can wait.  All Brown & Co.