Nigel Jones

Opinion polls are notoriously a snapshot rather than a prediction, but the latest Ipsos survey of more than 1,100 voters should put a huge spring in Nigel Farage’s step, and terrify both the Tories and Labour, who are placed nine points behind the surging populists. The poll gives the highest ever level of support for Reform The poll states that if a general election were held tomorrow, a Reform government would be elected on 34 per cent of the vote, putting Reform leader Nigel Farage in 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister with a massive majority. Labour would be reduced to 25 per cent, and the Tories to just 15 per cent and a pathetic rump of just ten seats or so in Parliament.

The sudden resignation of Reform UK’s chairman Zia Yusuf came as a shock in Westminster yesterday – but is unlikely to do the party much lasting damage. Yusuf, 38, a successful businessman and a former Goldman Sachs banker, said in a terse and huffy statement that working for the election of a Reform government was no longer a good use of his time.  While Yusuf gave no other specific reason for his departure , the move was almost certainly triggered by his anger at new Reform MP Sarah Pochin’s question to Sir Keir Starmer on Wednesday. Pochin, who won the Runcorn and Helsby seat from Labour last month, asked the Prime Minister if he would consider banning the burqa – the face cover worn by pious Muslim women – as other European countries have done.

It is an axiom of political debate that once you compare your opponents to Hitler’s Nazis you have definitely lost the argument. That golden rule seems to have escaped the notice of the Attorney General Lord Hermer, who, in a speech to the Royal Institute for International Affairs (RUSI) defence think tank did just that. Hermer, a close friend and fellow human rights lawyer colleague of Sir Keir Starmer, told RUSI that both Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Kemi Badenoch’s Tories were echoing Nazi ideology that placed national law above international agreements with their threats to withdraw Britain from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR): But does Lord Hermer really have Britain’s best interests at heart?

Reform is now touching 30 per cent in the polls, as Labour lags on 22 per cent and the Tories trail on just 15 per cent. As such, the insurgent party must prepare for more frenzied attacks from the old parties whose dominance it now seriously threatens. Is Nigel Farage’s party ready to face the inevitably detailed forensic scrutiny of its still rather vague policy agenda? One key question that Reform must answer is where they stand on the ideological spectrum: are they Thatcherite free marketeers, or neo-socialists prepared to use the state to mitigate the excesses of unbridled capitalism?

Eighty-five years ago, on 14 May 1940, Anthony Eden, newly-appointed secretary of war in Winston Churchill’s government, went on the radio to appeal for volunteers to join a newly formed defence militia to guard against a German invasion. Originally called the Local Defence Volunteers, this force later became the Home Guard, immortalised on our TV screens as ‘Dad’s Army’. As things turned out, the Battle of Britain ensured that Operation Sealion, the Nazi invasion plan, never took place, but the Home Guard remained in being, and while never tested in combat, they were a morale-boosting reminder that Britons old and young were ready to do their bit in defending the country.

Rupert Lowe must currently be the most frustrated man in British politics. The MP has been exonerated of accusations brought against him by Reform, yet his political career appears to be over. The police have said that there is insufficient evidence to justify proceeding with charges after leaders of his old Reform party accused the Great Yarmouth MP of bullying his office staff and threatening party chairman Zia Yusuf. Lowe, who has been expelled from Reform and now sits in parliament as an independent MP, responded to the news of him being cleared with an angry tweet accusing party founder and leader Nigel Farage of being a ‘viper’ and added that he must never become prime minister. https://twitter.com/RupertLowe10/status/1922598164592300389?

The attack on a prison officer by Axel Rudakubana, the killer of the three girls at a dance class in Southport in 2024, has revived calls for a restoration of capital punishment, as many ask why he is serving a 52-year jail term at huge public expense, rather than have been put to death at the time for his heinous crime. Rudakubana is reported to have thrown boiling water from a kettle over an officer from his cell at Belmarsh high security prison in south-east London. Although at the time he made his murderous attacks on the children, he was 17 and was therefore just under the age when killers could legally be hanged when Britain still retained the death penalty, there have been calls for an exception to be made in his exceptionally awful case.

The news that First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Key, the head of the Royal Navy, has stepped down from his job while claims of an alleged affair with a junior female officer are investigated, have come as a shock. The armed forces have been relatively free of the sex scandals that have become so common in politics since the Second World War. Sir Ben, a 59-year -old married father of three, has made no comment on the subject , and his duties have been taken over by Vice Admiral Sir Martin Connell, his deputy. Nonetheless, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that he has stood aside for 'private reasons'. It is the first time in the Navy's five centuries of existence that its first sea lord has faced a misconduct inquiry.

Though local polls and by-elections are notoriously unreliable guides to general elections, and a week is indeed a long time in politics, what happened at last week’s local elections could portend one of the greatest changes in our political system in over a century: the permanent presence of Reform UK, and consequently the demise of our oldest political party, the Tories. The Tories have been around in various forms since the reign of King Charles II, when party politics emerged as a rivalry between the Tories and the Whigs over the issue of whether to exclude James II from the throne on the basis of his Catholic faith. The two parties alternated in government throughout the 18th and 19th centuries and well into the 20th.