Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.
Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the economy ground to a halt in January, with no growth recorded. That was despite economists and businesses reporting a brighter start to the year. Economists had expected January to see growth of 0.2 per cent. Over the three months to January we did
With Donald Trump signalling that he does not want a long war in Iran, markets have started to settle down. Traders are no longer betting on interest rate hikes, the FTSE is in the green and a barrel of oil is hovering around $90. Nevertheless, the pressure on the Chancellor to set out further financial
The US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said today will be the most intense day yet of American strikes on Iran. Over the weekend, Donald Trump claimed the war could soon be over – and suggested the US has already effectively won. He also took aim at Keir Starmer, accusing Britain of joining wars America
Just as Britain’s economy looked to be ‘turning a corner’, it may be about to slam into a wall. The warning signs were obvious last week. On Monday, I’m told, the ship insurer Lloyd’s of London saw its ‘war desk’ hit its annual sales target within the first two hours of trading. As you read
30 min listen
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel as the war with Iran intensified over the weekend. Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude oil flows, how hard will we feel it back in Britain? And why has Britain left itself so vulnerable from its energy policy?
A few weeks ago I thought a March interest rates cut was ‘near certain’. Inflation was coming down and Bank of England rate-setters’ concerns about wage growth were being replaced by fears that higher rates were contributing to rising unemployment. In my defence, markets agreed: they priced the chances of a cut at over 80
75 min listen
Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves had been looking forward to today’s Spring ‘forecast’ statement, which was designed to be the lightest-touch intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in 2018: no OBR scoring of her fiscal rules, no tax announcements, no major policy changes and, crucially, no months of damaging speculation
12 min listen
Rachel Reeves has today delivered her much anticipated spring statement, her opportunity to address the looming energy crisis, the uncertainty in the Middle East and the crashing Labour market … unfortunately, she did none of the above. The Treasury promised that the spring statement was going to be boring – and at least it delivered
Rachel Reeves got what she wanted: an uneventful spring statement. It’s not even leading the homepage of the Financial Times. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. The forecasts the Chancellor read out from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) do not paint a pleasant picture of Britain’s economy. Growth for this year was slashed compared
Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves was looking forward to today. Her spring ‘forecast’ statement was going to be a doddle. The plan – to have the smallest intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in the spring of 2018 – was a sensible one. Britain’s fragile economy could not have handled
35 min listen
Britain’s banks have a hold over Rachel Reeves, declares Michael Simmons in the Spectator’s cover piece this week. Almost two decades on from the 2008 financial crash, the UK has failed to reform the system and – as ordinary people face a cost-of-living crisis – Labour is in hock to big business. Is the Chancellor too
16 min listen
Polls are open in Gorton and Denton for the by-election but as we eagerly await the result we thought we’d discuss economics, because looking ahead to next week we’ve got the spring statement. It’s not a major fiscal event – as Rachel Reeves will be anxious to point out – but one which is taking
The Epstein files lift the curtain on how power is exercised and influence traded by our financial elite. It is not a cheering sight. Business and economic gurus like the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers asking for dating advice from a convicted paedophile does not build confidence in the masters of the universe. Distasteful
6 min listen
Why are one in five school children classified as special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in 2026? The rates of children being diagnosed with neurodiverse conditions have scaled to disproportionate rates and the costs are a major concern for the government. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and explores why devolution has provided
Peter Mandelson, our short-lived ambassador to the US, has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. In a statement to journalists, the Met Police said: Officers have arrested a 72-year-old man on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was arrested at an address in Camden on Monday, 23 February and has been
21 min listen
There is an area of public spending nearly double what Britain spends on defence, more than policing borders or our streets. It’s servicing the costs of what Britain has borrowed in the past. The growing debt bomb is continuing to climb with real consequences for the taxpayer. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data
Britain is set for another dodgy data scandal. In last Friday’s Reality Check newsletter I picked up on reporting from the Times which called into question the income data used to calculate Britain’s child poverty metrics. Now, the BBC reports that those figures are going to be revised. The result: half a million children who the
Will any political party ever take on the triple lock? The answer from Reform’s Robert Jenrick yesterday appeared to be no. At a press conference where Jenrick, Reform’s Treasury spokesman, appeared to junk nearly everything Reform had previously said on economic and fiscal policy. He chucked overboard what was in many ways a left-leaning approach to both
It is Robert Jenrick’s big day out today. The newly-minted Reform ‘shadow chancellor’ made his first speech this morning, where he had the chance to show what kind of chancellor he would be and – sporting a snazzy pair of specs – he had plenty of soothing words to calm the jitters of the bond
Britain seems to be turning a corner. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show the rate of inflation fell to 3 per cent in January, having risen to 3.4 per cent at the end of last year. This downward trend is in line with forecasts from the Bank of England which expect