Michael Simmons

Overnight three federal judges on the United States Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs are unlawful and blocked them from going into effect. A group of businesses had taken the President’s administration to court, successfully arguing that the tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ were beyond the powers of the presidency.The ruling made clear that the US Congress has sole authority on passing legislation affecting cross-border trade. The White House immediately appealed and argued that the court does not have the right to rule on the matter.

Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the UK unemployment rate has risen to 4.5 per cent, the number of people on company payrolls has dropped by 63,000 over the past year, and there are 131,000 fewer job vacancies than at this time last year. Today’s employment data covers the period up to March – before the rise in the minimum wage and the Chancellor’s £25 billion national insurance hike took effect. The fact that the labour market was already faltering beforehand shows how deeply businesses were bracing for impact. It’s now the third consecutive month in which firms have shed jobs, and April's data could turn out even worse.

The White House has announced a breakthrough in trade negotiations with China following two days of talks in Switzerland. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had made ‘substantial progress’. This morning, he said that the US would lower tariffs on China to 25 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days, and that China would lower tariffs on the US to 10 per cent from 125 per cent for 90 days. Trump’s trade chief Jamieson Greer (who gave his first European interview to Unherd last week) said yesterday it had been a ‘very constructive two days’. He added: ‘It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.

Keir Starmer has ruled out a U-turn on the government’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment, with the Prime Minister’s spokesman insisting there ‘will not be a change to the government's policy’. This came after a report in the Guardian suggesting No.10 was considering softening the £1.4 billion cut, possibly by raising the threshold that defines who qualifies as poor enough to receive it. We can’t keep living in a state totally consumed by propping up its welfare system That a U-turn was even floated reflects two pressures: disquiet among Labour’s backbenchers, and the electoral warning shot fired by Reform UK in last Thursday’s local elections and by-election.

Britain’s welfare crisis may have slipped from the front pages following Liz Kendall’s £4.8 billion worth of cuts announced ahead of the Spring Statement, but the problems haven’t gone away. Figures quietly released by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) this week show that, despite Labour’s planned ‘reforms’ to the benefits system, nearly a million more people will end up on incapacity benefits by the end of the decade, at an additional cost of £9 billion. Kendall’s reforms have only chipped away a few pebbles from Everest Last autumn, the DWP’s own forecasts projected welfare spending on disabled and sick Britons passing £120 billion by 2030.

The Chancellor will meet America’s top economic official, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, today as she concludes her trip to the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings in Washington. As discussed on Coffee House this week, Rachel Reeves will use her meeting to attempt to make an Anglo-American trade deal a realistic possibility.  Yesterday, the Chancellor put in a surprise appearance on one of Donald Trump’s favourite news channels, Newsmax, and said she understood that both her government and the Trump administration were elected by voters who felt globalisation had not worked for working people. The tone of her interview was very much aimed at the President and his team.