Matt Mayer

With Rob Portman’s announcement that he will not seek a third term in the US Senate, the two questions of the hour are: can Democrats do what they did in Georgia to take the seat? And who will run for his seat? The first is easy to answer: no. Ohio isn’t Georgia, as it lacks a mega-city such as Atlanta where Democrats can run up huge numbers. With the population exoduses out of Democratic strongholds Cleveland, Toledo and Akron-Canton over the last 20 years married to the conversion of blue-collar Democrats to Trump Republicans, winning statewide in Ohio for the first time would be very hard for Democrats. Plus, the Democratic bench in Ohio is wafer thin, with only Rep. Tim Ryan being possibly viable statewide.

At the end of the day, the votes cast and counted determine who wins and who loses. Though it might be the case that many people cast ballots in 2020 who weren’t eligible to do so for one reason or another, putting that horse back into the barn after the election is nearly impossible. The vote totals in seven Ohio counties shows why Donald Trump barely lost the election to Joe Biden while Republicans down ticket did extremely well. Republican congressman Troy Balderson’s 12th Congressional District encompasses parts of heavily-Democratic Franklin County (Columbus and its suburbs) along with six other suburban and rural counties north and east of Franklin County. Those counties include: Delaware, Licking, Marion, Morrow, Muskingum and Richland.

I’ve watched with a mixture of amusement and surprise over the last few days as my right-wing friends have descended into indignation and finger-wagging on Twitter. Their disapproval is aimed at the mainstream media, Democrats, Big Tech and their henchmen over the Eric Swalwell and Hunter Biden developments. The amusement came from watching people post old tweets from hacks like Ben Rhodes or CNN anchor Christine Amanpour, expecting them to atone for being wrong. The surprise came from the same activity — surprise that my friends just don’t get it. They don’t give a damn. They won.

For four years now, Democrats and the media have droned on about how much of a narcissist Donald Trump is. It goes without saying that there is solid evidence that he is one. Over the last month, however, evidence has piled up showing that Barack Obama is also a raging narcissist. Yet, the media never applies that label to Obama. Orange Man bad; mixed-race man good. But maybe it’s time we all tried to look deeper than the widespread reflexive Barack worship. Because there are plenty of reasons to think that Obama’s ego is out of control. First; the monstrously self-indulgent memoirs. With Dreams from My Father (466 pages) and The Audacity of Hope (384 pages), Obama wrote about his pre-presidential life and thoughts on many issues.

It started a few weeks before Election Day. With the polling data almost universally showing that Joe Biden would win the White House and a ‘blue wave’ would sweep Mitch McConnell into the Senate minority, creatures of the Washington swamp started becoming emboldened enough to publicly buck Donald Trump and his team. I don’t mean, of course, the NeverTrumpers who opposed Trump during the primary and general elections in 2016. Those ‘brave’ souls assumed Trump wasn’t going to beat Hillary Clinton so spoke out against him with incredibly judgmental letters and tweets by the dozens, telling voters Trump was unworthy of the presidency, as if Bill Clinton never happened.

The 2020 election has provided fertile ground upon which Republicans can spend the next four years doing to Joe Biden what the Democrats did to Donald Trump and George W. Bush. For four years, Democrats and their media allies trumpeted every claim, no matter how baseless or crazy, that Trump’s 2016 election win was illegitimate and fraudulent. Despite zero evidence that so much as a single vote was interfered with, Democrats peddled the hoax that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to elect Trump. Even after the Mueller investigation exonerated Trump and his campaign from the collusion canard, Democrats, led by the shameless Adam Schiff, continued to allege collusion. Their simple goal was to undermine and delegitimize the Trump presidency.

The 2020 election has already kicked up myriad allegations of fraud. From dead people voting in key states to late Biden ballots magically showing up, recounts and the courts will determine fact from fiction. Along with those issues, there were other five outcomes that should cause reasonable people to scratch their heads.First, Colorado. Just a few years ago, Colorado was considered a purple battleground state. Donald Trump even vocalized a belief he could win there in 2020. But this month's results should end Republican dreams of winning statewide top-of-the-tickets races in Colorado for the foreseeable future. As a former Coloradan who ran a congressional campaign and served as a deputy on Sen.

While Donald Trump appears to have lost the 2020 presidential election, Trump’s agenda of populism focused on the working class and putting America first won, well, bigly. Contrary to the Democrats’ claim that Joe Biden’s razor-thin win gave them a mandate, the only mandate America’s voters gave this year is that they want more Trumpism. To wit, the swing of roughly the same number of voters in a handful of states by which Trump won in 2016 is the gap of Biden’s win. Going forward, Republicans must focus on maintaining that sentiment and fight off attempts by NeverTrumpers and Establishment Republicans to throw Trumpism out with Trump.

The networks have made official what seemed to have occurred when Georgia flipped from red to blue: Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. We can spend the next few months analyzing why Donald Trump lost as I started to do on Friday, but fundamentally few of the voting irregularities cited by the Trump campaign appear to be widespread enough to reverse one, let alone several, of the states Trump would need to flip to get to 270 electoral votes. That doesn’t, of course, mean the Democrats in the big cities didn’t engage in shenanigans. It simply means it will be hard to prove what they did after the fact.

With the last dominoes of Georgia and Pennsylvania falling, there is now clarity on the 2020 election cycle. Based on all of the data available at the time and, more fundamentally, the political antennae cultivated over the last three decades, I predicted Donald Trump would be reelected with a 305 to 233 electoral vote victory. My presidential tally was wrong. Joe Biden will secure at least 306 electoral votes, assuming North Carolina also doesn’t fall when final numbers are released next week.But (there is always a but), in my defense, I was also right.

As of 1:00 a.m. on Election Night, assuming Montana and Alaska go to Donald Trump and Nevada goes to Joe Biden, the presidential race sits at a standstill with Joe Biden at 243 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 216 electoral votes. Ignoring the single electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska, that leaves five states left to be awarded. The focus over the next two days will be on how many votes are left to count compared to what the current margins between the two candidates are in those states.Here is a breakdown and what Biden needs to do to overcome the Trump leads in the remaining five states, with my prediction on what likely will occur:Georgia (16 electoral votes)With 82 percent of precincts reporting, Trump leads by 310,107 votes out of 4,108,591 total votes cast.

I’m doubling down. In 2016, against virtually all of the polling data and sophisticated analysis, I predicted Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton 280 to 258. To the shock of the world, he ended up winning 304 to 277. Four years later, the world finds itself again facing an American presidential election in which the vast majority of polling data and prognosticators indicate a Joe Biden win by a fairly solid majority. At last check, the polling aggregator at RealClearPolitics puts Biden ahead nationally 51 percent to 44.3 percent and in top battleground states 48.9 percent to 46 percent, which would give Biden a 335 to 203 electoral victory. The latest betting odds show Biden favored 64.3 percent to 34.8 percent.

I don’t believe in astrology, but, if I did, I’d have to say the stars are aligning for Donald Trump in the last 10 days of this tumultuous election. Beginning with the second presidential debate where Trump finally displayed presidential behavior and Joe Biden expressly proclaimed his goal to transition away from oil (i.e., kill it), virtually every unfolding event has aided Trump’s cause for reelection. Though he still might not win, the momentum is clearly behind Trump as Election Day nears.First, Biden’s comment on energy at the last debate certainly hurt him with energy industry workers and their families in western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

Sigmund Freud famously noted that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. In the case of fracking, even Freud would have acknowledged that fracking is about so much more than just fracking. That is why the issue is so important to voters beyond those in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas where so much oil and natural gas is produced. That is also why Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to walk back their positions on fracking from the Democratic primary, when they said they’d ban fracking and cease the use of carbon-based energy sources, as well as push for the budget-busting and progressive utopian Green New Deal. Of course, it’s about jobs.

Too many pundits are ready to call the 2020 presidential race with a month to go. Four weeks is a lifetime in politics, especially in the age of technology where news travels faster than the facts. With both candidates in their seventies, health issues are always going to cause things to shift quickly. A couple of weeks ago, Joe Biden offered further evidence that all is not well upstairs when he claimed that ‘it’s estimated 200 million people have died of COVID’.Sure, the debate last week appeared to be a debacle for Donald Trump who then ended the week by coming down with COVID — though Hispanic Telemundo viewers thought Trump won the debate soundly.

Dublin, Ohio Since the presidential election of 1944 when Ohio went with loser Thomas Dewey over winner Franklin Roosevelt, Ohio voters have given majority support to every presidential winner except one. The sole ‘error’ occurred in 1960 when Ohio went with loser Richard Nixon over winner John F. Kennedy. That means Ohio has gone 14 straight elections, or 60 straight years, picking the winner. No other state carries such a distinguished record. With Joe Biden barely campaigning in Ohio and Donald Trump covering the state — signs point to Trump again winning Ohio in 2020, albeit with a smaller margin. Nevertheless, will Ohio be wrong this year? Don’t bet on it. For years, Ohio’s slogan was ‘The Heart of It All!

Though often lost in the debate over the Electoral College, Article II in our Constitution created a system in which the people of each state actually vote for a slate of electors representing each presidential candidate. The presidential candidate whose slate wins the popular vote in each state then gets to cast its ballots to elect the president. Each state gets electoral votes equaling the number of representatives and senators. That is why the only number that truly matters on Election Day is the number of electoral votes each candidate will receive when the electors meet and vote over a month later.

In 2016, I was one of the very few people who publicly stated the night before the election that, despite the polling data, Trump was going to win 280 to 258. I made that prediction because what I was seeing and hearing across Ohio didn’t match what the polling said would happen. I put out a detailed electoral map showing which states he’d win. I got every state right except Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which I called for Clinton, I thought New Hampshire would go for Trump. I let history overinfluence my call on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as no Republican had won Wisconsin since 1984 and Pennsylvania since 1988. Right now, my gut is telling me something just isn’t right again between the polling and the facts on the ground.