Mark Nayler

As the Catalonian independence battle continues to escalate ahead of the proposed October 1st referendum, Mariano Rajoy’s government is going all-out to thwart the secessionist efforts of Catalan president Carles Puigdemont. As he does so, it is becoming harder to see when or how this increasingly unpleasant conflict will be resolved. Following the orders of a judge on Wednesday morning, national police raided 42 premises in Barcelona – including several governmental offices - in search of referendum-related materials such as ballot papers and pro-independence pamphlets. They arrested 14 people, amongst them the Economy Secretary General Josep Maria Jové and an advertising professional whose firm is believed to be in possession of material relating to the referendum.

As the events of the last few days show, the increasingly toxic issue of Gibraltar means the UK's Article 50 talks with Spain might become more fraught than either party would like. It's not just that Spain wants to share sovereignty of the Rock with Britain; more dangerous is the fact that Brussels can exploit this dispute to punish the UK for Brexit. In fact, this weekend's fracas over Gibraltar's post-Brexit status shouldn't have caused the uproar it did. True, the document distributed to EU member governments on Friday by Donald Tusk highlighted Spain's ability to veto Gibraltar's inclusion in any EU-UK deal; but as part of the soon-to-be 27 member bloc, Spain already possessed that ability.

The increasingly radical Catalonian independence project has been dealt its latest blow this week: on Tuesday, Spain's constitutional court ruled that a projected September referendum on secession would be illegal. This means any plebiscite is effectively banned. But whether Catalonia's pro-independence president Carles Puigdemont goes ahead anyway remains to be seen. A similarly defiant course of action was pursued by his predecessor Artur Mas, who held a vote in 2014 (in which eighty per cent of people backed independence), and is currently on trial. The latest setback in the quest for Catalonian secessionism is particularly ill-timed.

It should come as no surprise that the Spanish government has so swiftly rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s proposal of a bespoke Brexit deal for Scotland. Although Spain might have finally ended its ten month political freeze a couple of months ago, the febrile issue of Catalonian independence remains unresolved. Far from quietening down or going away, the secessionist movement in Barcelona is becoming more aggressive and radical. As it does so, the central government in Madrid adopts tougher measures to try and suppress it including, last week, another ruling by its constitutional court against a referendum on the region’s independence.

It's been exactly a year ago since Spain held what would turn out to be the first of two general elections in ten months. The first vote unleashed chaos: new parties Podemos (‘We Can’, on the radical left) and Ciudadanos ('Citizens', on the centre-right) split 35 per cent of the vote between them. This ended the joint hegemony of Spain’s two oldest parties, meaning it was time to say goodbye to a status quo established when Franco’s death inaugurated democracy in 1975 - a world in which the Conservatives and the Socialists simply swapped power back and forth. Everything had changed. Or had it?

After nearly a year of bickering and stalling, Spanish politicians have finally formed their country’s new government. Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative Popular Party (PP), returns for a second term as prime minister. This time, Rajoy heads up a coalition made up of the PP, centrist newcomer Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) and the centre-right Canary Islands Coalition. This is good news for Spain and shows that, at last, pragmatism has trumped ideology. It has ensured that a dreaded third election, which had been looming in December, won't now be needed. Rajoy’s administration won’t have it easy though. The coalition is deeply unpopular with many Spaniards and will face formidable opposition in congress.

There aren’t many certainties in the maelstrom of Spanish politics at the moment, but there is one: that the left, for now at least, is a defeated force. A civil war within the PSOE, the traditional Socialist party, resulted in the resignation of its leader Pedro Sanchez a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, radical hard-left newcomer Unidos Podemos is suffering its own identity crisis, and has been unable to capitalise on the surge of anti-establishment feeling that brought it to prominence in last December’s general election. Perhaps the only other certainty is that the left’s splintering and infighting cannot fail to benefit the traditional Spanish right, represented by the acting Popular Party government.

The circus of Spanish politics shows no signs of stopping. For now, the country is managing to weather this eight month-long deadlock surprisingly well: Spain’s GDP growth has continued at one of the fastest rates in the eurozone. But this is in spite, rather than because, of Spain's zombie government. A record-breaking tourist season has helped, as has a jump in consumer spending. Yet finally, the cracks are beginning to show; and the impasse crippling Spanish politics - which now looks set to lead to the increasingly-likely prospect of a third election on Christmas Day this year - is starting to take its toll. So what's the hold up?

The only surprise result in Spain’s repeat general election on Sunday – rendered necessary by the impasse produced by December’s – was the failure of the new Spanish left to nudge the Socialists out of second place. The radical-left coalition Unidos Podemos (‘United We can’), a combination of Podemos (We Can) and Izquierda Unida (United Left), was expected to increase its joint share of the votes and take second-place behind the Conservative Popular Party (PP), replacing Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE as the dominant force of the Spanish left. Instead it came in third place, taking 21.11 per cent of the vote and 71 seats.

More than four months on from Spain’s December general election, optimism has given way to fatigue and cynicism among the electorate. Coalition negotiations between leading parties have failed, and a repeat election will now be held in Spain on 26 June, a few days after Britain's EU referendum. But there is little enthusiasm for this second-take. Many Spaniards are now saying they will register disappointment with their politicians by abstaining. And what of the supposed new breed of Spanish politician represented by Albert Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) and Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos (‘We Can’)?

Almost a month on from an unprecedentedly divisive general election, Spain seems further away from forming a new government than ever. In Madrid’s grandiose Palacio de las Cortes on Wednesday, the Spanish parliament convened for the first time since the December 20 vote, and it proved an eventful session - but not because some combination of the four main parties managed to move towards a coalition government. Division, not unity, was the order of the day.

Spain is a long way from being Greece or Portugal, but in Sunday’s historic general election, Spaniards sent out the same message that the Greeks did in July and the Portugese did in October – namely, a resounding ‘No’ to austerity economics. Anti-austerity Podemos—the left-wing challenger party that is less than two years old—took a staggering 20.7 per cent of the national vote and is now the third-strongest political force in Spain. As long as the composition of Spain’s new government is unknown, the country's economic recovery is on hold – but two things, at least, are now very clear.