Lucy Dunn

On the face of it, the Caerphilly by-election result is a disaster, a drubbing and a humiliation for Keir Starmer’s Labour party. A once secure bastion of the Welsh Labour heartlands fell without a squeak from the governing party. Their vote collapsed to a miserable 11 per cent, while Plaid Cymru won with 47 per cent and Reform surged to second place with 36 per cent. The result suggests Labour is on course to surrender a boatload of seats at the 2029 general election, both to Reform and to whatever protest party is best suited to beat the government around the head – be it Plaid, the Greens, the Corbynites, the Islamist independents or the SNP. But is there good news for the PM beyond the headlines?  Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.

There have been lots of movements in foreign affairs over the weekend, including a potential collapse of the Gaza peace deal, a Trump–Putin bilateral and new revelations about the China spy case. But closer to home, all eyes are on Kent Council, Reform’s flagship administrative project run by Linden Kemkaran (formerly of this parish). Over the weekend, a Zoom call was leaked to the Guardian, in which council leader Kemkaran used some choice language – many are calling it a Jackie Weaver moment, if you can cast your mind back to 2021. Labour have put out a press release and the Lib Dems are apparently going to capitalise on it with something Traitors-themed, in an attempt to demonstrate that, for all their success in the polls, Reform can’t govern. Will this cut through?

Donald Trump says Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of his Gaza peace plan. During an extraordinary round table on the Antifa organisation last night, the US President was interrupted by Marco Rubio and given a hand-written message. He told those assembled at the White House: ‘I was just given a note by the Secretary of State saying that we’re very close to a deal in the Middle East, and they’ll need me pretty quickly.’ Details of the deal, including the finalised list of prisoners Hamas wants freed as part of an exchange, remain unclear. But the first part of the deal could be set in motion as soon as today once the Israeli government approves the plan at around 2 p.m. local time. Is he heading for a Nobel Peace Prize?

This morning Kemi Badenoch wrapped up Tory conference with a speech that will – for now at least – calm Conservative jitters. The Tory leader’s hour-long address in Manchester was intended as a rejoinder to critics of her leadership and she certainly achieved that aim. Having been accused of lacking spirit, imagination and vigour, Badenoch today demonstrated all three and gave an idea of what the direction of the party looks like under her. The main headline grabbing announcement was her plan to abolish stamp duty – a surprise ‘rabbit’ that sparked a standing ovation. Is she safe, for now? Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and William Atkinson.

Tim Shipman, James Heale and Lucy Dunn record live at Conservative party conference in Manchester. What's the mood at conference – and has Kemi done enough to neutralise her detractors? Tim says he expects there to be no immediate leadership challenge but the Conservatives need to get real about the 'attention economy' they're faced with. What inspiration can they take from Tory grandee Michael Heseltine? And can they 'make conservative sexy again'? Plus, audience questions on the upcoming budget and the challenges for the Conservatives in both Wales and Scotland. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

The Prime Minister was set to announce his crackdown on the existing rights of refugees at the European Political Community meeting today; however, he has flown back to chair a Cobra meeting after a terror attack in Manchester. Two people have been killed and at least two others injured after a driver allegedly rammed a car into pedestrians outside a synagogue and attacked them with a knife. The suspect, who was shot by police, is also believed to be dead. Also on the podcast, Tim Shipman interviews Kemi Badenoch for the magazine this week. As she enters conference season with the Tories running third in the polls behind Reform and Labour, she tells Tim that she is up for a fight.

The Labour machine has whirred into gear to try and contain a certain Northern mayor’s mischievous interventions this week, by announcing a big controversial piece of policy. The news that ID cards – Tony Blair’s pet project – will be introduced has splashed all the front pages, demoting Andy Burnham to yesterday’s news. It’s a policy with broad public support, but with a passionate minority opposition including the leaders of the other major parties. The fact that it is being rebranded as a ‘Brit card’ with the aim of tackling the migration crisis has also ruffled a few feathers. Will it work politically? And, more importantly, will it work in practice?  Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and James Heale.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Andy Burnham, Manchester’s mayor and self-styled champion of the North, is openly flirting with a return to Westminster just days before the Labour Party conference. In a revealing interview, he outlined his 'Manchesterism' – a blend of business-friendly socialism and public control of essential services – though what that actually means remains unclear. Typically, he is full of inconsistencies, criticising Westminster and how it 'makes you look false', while openly seeking a route back. Does he see the irony? Meanwhile, Keir Starmer faces challenges on multiple fronts: his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, is embroiled in a controversy over nearly £740,000 of undisclosed donations to Labour Together, threatening to overshadow conference proceedings.

Nigel Farage has unveiled his most radical immigration plan yet – scrapping indefinite leave to remain for migrants – in a move designed to reverse the so-called 'Boriswave.' James Heale explains how this would affect hundreds of thousands already living in the UK, why the party claims it could save £250 billion, and whether any of it is remotely feasible. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has formally recognised Palestine as a state, a decision hailed by many Labour MPs but criticised by others as diplomatically reckless. And, to round off a busy political Monday morning, the government has approved a second runway at Gatwick – but will it really boost growth before the next election? Lucy Dunn speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.