Katy Balls

It's crunch day – yes, really this time – for Theresa May. After spending the evening in one-on-one meetings with a select few cabinet ministers, this afternoon the Prime Minister will chair a special cabinet meeting – where she will seek approval for her proposed deal. The devil will be in the detail – but for some the detail is neither here nor there with the European Research Group quick to see red ahead of reading the document. Last night, Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested on Newsnight that he could be forced to withdraw his support for the Prime Minister. Not helping matters is a Brussels leak that makes its ways into the Times and FT. Brussels negotiator Sabine Weyand has told EU ambassadors that the 'temporary' backstop may not be so temporary.

The government is facing a defeat on the Budget. But rather than a Brexit showdown or the DUP pulling the rug from under Theresa May's feet over the rumoured backstop, the issue is a domestic one. After Tracey Crouch resigned from government over the decision to seemingly delay reducing the maximum stake for fixed odds betting terminals (FOBT) by six months, more than 20 Tory MPs – including Remain MPs and Brexiteers such as Jacob Rees-Mogg – and all 10 DUP MPs have signed an amendment demanding the new maximum stake be brought forward. The vote is scheduled for next week. While the government would currently lose that vote – no-one expects it to get that far with a climbdown expected in the next few days.

Although Philip Hammond's spending splurge Budget has received broadly positive front pages and a cautious thumbs up from the public, the Chancellor has been given a reality check by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). After crunching the numbers, IFS director Paul Johnson has concluded that Hammond had 'gambled' on the public finances. Johnson said that the Chancellor ought to be 'thanking his lucky stars' for his £12billion windfall from a revised public borrowing forecast. With no plan set out for how to fund this level of spending in the future, Johnson concluded that 'inevitable tax increases' would have to follow in order 'to pay for our ageing population'. On the Tory benches, it's widely accepted that this was a Budget that put off the difficult decisions.

When Theresa May announced at this year's Tory conference that she would put an end to austerity, it's safe to say that her Chancellor hardly looked thrilled as he clapped from the front row of the hall. Philip Hammond is regarded as a fiscal hawk and rather averse to loosening the purse strings. At today's Budget, Hammond tried to get on board with No 10's ending austerity message. But in doing so, he also attempted to put some clear blue water between 'end austerity' Conservatives and anti-austerity Labour. Firstly, Hammond defined what he sees as 'ending austerity'. The Chancellor said that ending austerity meant an above-inflation increase in departmental spending. The Tory version of ending austerity also means no tax rises in the quest to do so.

Theresa May tried her best to persuade grumpy MPs that a Brexit deal was still in sight when she addressed the Commons this evening. With colleagues from across the Conservative party losing faith in No 10's negotiating strategy, the Prime Minister insisted that '95 per cent of the Withdrawal Agreement and its protocols are now settled'. The trouble is the remaining 5 per cent is the most difficult. As May herself admitted, the main sticking point is 'a considerable one': the Irish border. With the Brexit talks at an impasse over the terms of the Irish backstop – the arrangement the UK would fall back on to avoid a hard border if no new trade deal is in place by the end of the transition – few believe a solution is in sight.

Theresa May's Hell Week 2.0 has aptly ended with a Conservative backbencher branding the current operation a 'sh-t-show'. In an interview with The House magazine, Johnny Mercer has let rip – complaining that were he not a Conservative MP he wouldn't vote Conservative. Mercer says the party's values have changed since the Cameron days and if he weren't an MP already 'there would be absolutely no chance that I would try and be a Member of Parliament' in the current climate. Mercer also rules out taking a job in the current administration – though it's safe to presume that No 10 won't be particularly minded to give one to him after this outburst. So, is Mercer throwing his toys out of the pram – or does this intervention touch on a wider problem?

With Conservative MPs across the spectrum seeing red over a mooted extension to the implementation period after the UK leaves the EU, Theresa May attempted to dial down the rhetoric in her EU Council press conference this afternoon. After a disappointing evening which saw the Prime Minister granted neither dinner nor sufficient progress by the EU27, May insisted to hacks that a good Brexit deal was still in sight. On reports that No 10 is planning to extend the transition period by up to a year in a bid to reach a deal, May did not deny the claims – but insisted that this wouldn't really be an implementation period extension per se.

Has Theresa May's Mufasa just transformed into No 10's most troublesome minister? Geoffrey Cox – the Attorney General – shot to the public consciousness this month thanks to his star turn as the warm up act for May at Conservative party conference. The seasoned QC gave a barn-storming speech (which drew Lion King comparisons) calling for his fellow Brexiteers to get behind May and prepare to compromise in their quest for a good deal for the UK. As regular Coffee House readers will be aware, this was the second time Cox had thrown May a lifeline. Prior to his appointment to the Cabinet, the Conservative MP demonstrated his loyalty to Theresa May at a difficult 1922 committee after Boris Johnson had resigned over Chequers by defending the Prime Minister’s plans.

In the Prime Minister's statement to the House, Theresa May did her best to insist that despite an impasse in the Brexit negotiations it was business as normal. However, for all May's claims that the differences between the UK and the EU were solvable, the hostile questions that followed from MPs showed just how hard it would be to get any deal through Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn's attempts to say that the government's 'Groundhog Day' Brexit plans would fail Labour's six Brexit tests were met with laughter and derision. The Leader of the Opposition's shouty performance gave the beleaguered Prime Minister little reason for worry. However, the questions from the backbenchers did.

If last week was 'hell week' for Theresa May, the next few days could be classed as the Prime Minister's trip to the ninth circle. With problems over the Irish border backstop unsolved, No 10 are fighting fire on multiple fronts ahead of a crucial EU Council meeting on Wednesday. The papers are filled with Cabinet resignation threats, rumoured leadership bids and a warning from the DUP that 'no deal' is now the most likely outcome. The Sunday Times puts the number of no confidence letters with 1922 chair Graham Brady at 44 – if four more go in a confidence vote will follow. Should that come to be and May lose, David Davis is now being talked up (once again) as a caretaker PM over Boris Johnson.

From the offset, this week was described as one that would be hellish for Theresa May. However, the DUP have given fresh meaning to 'hell week' after embarking on a PR offensive to make their displeasure at the government's Irish backstop proposals known. Today the Prime Minister meets with a select number of Cabinet ministers (those seen as supportive) to update them on the Brexit talks – but the people she desperately needs to win over are Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds. Foster and her colleagues have seen red after details have emerged of May's backstop proposals. These proposals would see different regulatory systems for goods in Britain and Northern Ireland. With such a system, it's hard to see how Northern Ireland could be part of new global trade deals the UK signs.

When Dominic Raab took up the post of Brexit Secretary in the wake of David Davis's resignation over Chequers, a number of Tory MPs were surprised by his decision (see Geoffrey Cox for reasons to take Cabinet jobs). Some Brexiteers thought that Raab ought to have proved his Leave credentials and said no given the terms of Theresa May's soft Brexit blueprint. Others couldn't work out why the job appealed to an ambitious rising star given that it was by all accounts a hospital pass. Today's Brexit statement in the Commons went some way to providing evidence for the latter point. With Theresa May lukewarm on the idea of giving a statement to the Commons on the disastrous Salzburg summit and the state of the negotiations since, Raab was sent out instead.

In the end, the star of Conservative conference was a Brexiteer. Only it wasn't Boris Johnson – or even Jacob Rees-Mogg. Instead, it was someone with a much lower media profile – Geoffrey Cox QC. Theresa May's recently appointed Attorney General stole the show with a Mufasa-inspired barn-storming stage routine. In it, Cox’s booming baritone echoed across the hall as he gave a robust defence of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union – and May's Chequers agreement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ As Conservative MPs watched from the front row seats, a few had to admit that they weren't sure who their colleague was. The bulk found that they didn't have his phone number.