Katy Balls

It’s hard to think of a time when an opposition leader has had such a promising start to the new year. Jeremy Corbyn finds himself up against a prime minister who barely survived a confidence motion, with more than a third of the Conservative parliamentary party voting against her. The Tories have no majority of their own and have fallen out with their partner, the DUP. That same government is facing a make-or-break Brexit vote in two weeks’ time. It’s quite possible — some cabinet members believe probable — that it may soon collapse with a new general election called. All Labour needs is to be ready. In parliament, Corbyn’s closest allies are trying to do just that.

It's a new year, a new dawn, a new day – and for many Brits a fresh start. Unless you're Theresa May. The Prime Minister begins 2019 with things much the same as they were in 2018. Her party is at war over Brexit, she still has a hugely unpopular piece of legislation to pass and her rivals are circling – attempting to boost their appeal to the Tory membership in anticipation of an eventual leadership contest. After a briefing war between No.10 and the Home Office over the Christmas period – which saw details of leadership frontrunner Sajid Javid's luxury holiday wind up in the papers – it's now the turn of Jeremy Hunt to cause a stir. The Foreign Secretary is in Singapore flying the flag for Global Britain.

Dame Helena Morrissey has been described as the UK's own superwoman thanks to the fact that she balances a high-flying City career as a financier with bringing up nine children. She's also a rarity in the finance sector as a proud Brexiteer. So, I'm delighted to have Helena as my guest on the latest episode of Women with Balls. In the interview, Morrissey talks about what it is like being a lone voice on Brexit in her industry: 'I, maybe naively, had taken the logical extension of the work I'd done on encouraging diversity in the boardroom to mean that diversity of thought on issues like the EU referendum was to be welcomed. It became very shouty very quickly and very confrontational the whole run up to the referendum and then subsequently.

As Parliament rises for the Christmas recess, Jeremy Corbyn ends the term one MP down. Ivan Lewis has this afternoon quit the party citing Corbyn's response to allegations of Labour anti-Semitism as a motivating factor. Complicating matters is the fact that Lewis – a former Labour minister – has been suspended by the party since November pending an internal party investigation into an allegation of sexual harassment. In his resignation letter, Lewis – MP for Bury South – says it was with 'great sadness' he had come to this decision to quit the party – before turning his ire on Corbyn's handling of anti-Semitism allegations: 'All too often you have been unwilling to condemn those whose hatred of Israel becomes Jew hatred'.

It's the day of the government's immigration white paper and what was supposed to be a Brexit deal vote winning announcement has descended into a Cabinet row. No.10 pressed ahead with the publication – and a briefing went out to hacks near 8pm. The delay has been put down to internal wrangling over several items in that paper – notable the call for a £30,000 minimum salary for five-year working visas. Several pro-immigration ministers say this will damage the economy – and send the wrong message by striking an anti-immigration tone. The tensions were apparent even this morning when Sajid Javid appeared on the Today programme to discuss the policy proposals.

After an afternoon of will-they-won't-they over Labour's threat to table a motion of no confidence, Jeremy Corbyn has told the Speaker he will do just this. However, where earlier reports suggested the no confidence vote would be in the government, it will now be in Theresa May herself. This is important because a confidence motion in the Prime Minister personally has no legal or constitutional force – were May to lose it she would not need to resign. It is also up to the government whether they make time for it – they don't have to. Given that Labour have no opposition day debates left to set the agenda, it could just not happen. The Labour leader's decision to do this comes after a bizarre afternoon filled with contradicting messages from party figures.

After a nightmare EU Council summit, Theresa May attempted to put on a brave face in her summit press conference. The Prime Minister told hacks that despite the fact the EU had refused to agree to her request for a 12 month limit to the backstop, progress had been made. As for that heated exchange between May and Jean Claude Juncker in which she appeared to call the European Commission president out for describing her as nebulous, that was merely the type of 'robust' conversation good friends can have. While there is reason to believe Juncker was being disingenuous in calling May 'nebulous' over her requests (the UK side insist the EU side know what it wants), this press conference did manage to fall into the nebulous category.

How can Theresa May regain the confidence of the 117 Tory MPs who voted against her leadership? A big part of May's pitch to her party on Wednesday night was that she would repair relations with the DUP – after the confidence and supply agreement broke down over the backstop. One idea now gaining momentum with senior Conservatives of how to do that is to dump Karen Bradley as Northern Ireland secretary, as part of a mini-reshuffle to show May is listening to MPs' concerns. After the Prime Minister limped home in Wednesday's confidence vote, there is deep unrest over May's leadership. Rather than quash the Brexit rebels, it's become clear that the concern over her premiership goes beyond the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs.

Theresa May has won the confidence vote tabled against her by her own party. The Prime Minister won by 200 votes to 117 against. This is not a victory in any real sense for May. Government figures tonight are surprised by the number of MPs voting against. No. 10 had hoped to keep the rebellion in double figures. However, ministers are keen to put to Coffee House that 200 is a respectable figure - even if it is on the low end of respectable. May’s critics will likely argue that the defeat is in triple figures so she should resign. That looks unlikely. Even if May had won by a mere 20 votes the expectation was that she would fight on. So, what happens now? As one government source put it, ‘May is over’.

The so-called People's Vote campaign have today held an event on the need for a vote on the final Brexit deal. The screen for the event is emblazoned with a new slogan: 'If not now, when?' – in an attempt to argue there's no time like the present. https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1072456826661285888 Whether or not you agree with the sentiment, more people are coming round to the idea that a second vote is likely – the odds on a second EU referendum has moved from 7/4 into Even money in recent days – as a way to break the Brexit deadlock. While Theresa May has delayed a Brexit clash by moving the vote, there's a feeling that she's simply putting off the inevitable rather than working on a new plan.

Faced with a choice between a humiliating defeat or moving a vote in order to delay a humiliating defeat, Theresa May has plumped for the latter. This morning, cabinet sources say the Prime Minister made the decision to delay the vote on her Brexit deal. Despite No.10 insisting repeatedly this morning that the vote would go ahead on Tuesday, the scale of defeat appears to have become too much and there are now plans to try and shelve it. Cabinet sources suggest that the vote will be moved to January. The vote could still go ahead if May's opponents find a procedural ruse by which to thwart the government.

With three days to go until the vote on Theresa May’s deal, this had been the point in the process that No 10 hoped the Whips would be closing in on the swing rebels. Instead the number of rebels is growing with every day. This evening Will Quince has resigned as a PPS - urging the Prime Minister to go back to the EU and renegotiate the detail so it becomes something MPs can support. Now Quince is no household name but he is also not an ardent Brexiteer or an ardent Remainer. The fact that he has resigned shows how MPs sense a sinking ship and have no plans to be attached to a doomed deal which has little chance of passing. It used to be the case that a job in government was enough to entice loyalty from ambitious MPs.

Tony Blair has spent his lunch attempting to charm the Parliamentary Press Gallery. The former prime minister used his appearance before hacks to lay out his pitch for a second referendum. The ardent Remainer claimed that MPs were likely to come round to the idea of a second Brexit vote in the coming weeks as they would work out that there is no Parliamentary majority for any form of Brexit at present. He said that Theresa May's deal was the worst of both worlds as it wasn't properly leaving. As a result, Blair argued that the options on the ballot paper in a second vote should simply be 'Remain' and a 'hard Brexit' – though given that the EU has said that May's deal is the only deal, that implies Blair is suggesting no deal.