Jonathan Jones

No more Mr Nice Guy | 16 January 2012

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r8z0uag5mI So Jon Huntsman is dropping out of the US Presidential race today. Apparently a battle with Rick Perry for fifth in South Carolina didn't appeal. Even though he looked like the best bet to beat Obama, Huntsman was never likely to win the Republican nomination. When many Republicans were desperately searching for a more conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, running as the more moderate alternative to Mitt Romney wasn't going to be a winning strategy. This year of all years, you couldn't see a man who had served in the Obama administration as Ambassador to China and who tweeted ‘I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.’ becoming the Republican nominee.

Miliband beats Miliband in the polls

Ed Miliband's poll ratings are going from bad to disastrous at the moment. Last week his YouGov approval rating dropped to its worst ever, with just 20 per cent of respondents saying he's doing a good job, and 66 per cent saying he's doing a bad one. And today they slip even further. Again 20 per cent say he's doing ‘well’, but now 69 per cent say ‘badly’: And, most worryingly for the Labour leader, the number of Labour voters giving him the thumbs down (49 per cent) now outnumbers those giving him the thumps up (46 per cent). That's compared to the 95 per cent of Tories who think Cameron's doing well, and the 72 per cent of Lib Dems for Clegg.

Labour’s new strategy in the cuts blame game

Even as Ed Balls embraces the need for austerity today, he takes a very different position to the coalition on why it’s necessary. The government has always blamed the need for cuts on the ‘awful economic inheritance’ bequeathed it by Labour. Balls, on the other hand, puts the blame squarely at George Osborne’s door. In his Fabian Society speech, he said: ‘George Osborne’s economic mistakes mean more difficult decisions on tax, spending and pay.’ His argument is that, by cutting ‘too far and too fast’, the coalition has caused the economy to stagnate and thereby created the need for more austerity. Labour has, of course, long been trying to shift the blame for the cuts away from themselves and onto the coalition.

Balls’ attempt at credibility falls short

‘I must be responsible and credible in what I say.’ No, it's not Bart Simpson writing on the blackboard at the start of The Simpsons, although it may have been said with just as little enthusiasm. It's Ed Balls on the Today programme this morning, explaining his decision to endorse George Osborne's public sector pay freeze. Balls' interview in today's Guardian is his biggest effort so far to sound 'responsible and credible' on the economy.

From the archives: Saving the Union

With Scottish independence very much the issue of the week, we thought you might enjoy this Spectator leader from 1979, arguing for a 'No' vote in that year's referendum on Scottish devolution: To preserve the Union, 24 February 1979 ‘So, Sir, you laugh at schemes of political improvement?’ ‘Why, Sir, most schemes of political improvement are very laughable things.’ The Scotland Act, which comes before the judgement of the Scottish people on Thursday, is certainly laughable. Would that it were no more than that.

Gove takes on bad teachers

Michael Gove’s giving a robust defence of his plans to make it quicker and easier for schools to sack bad teachers. ‘You wouldn’t tolerate an underperforming surgeon in an operating theatre, or an underperforming midwife at your child’s birth,’ he says in the Mail. ‘Why is it that we tolerate underperforming teachers in the classroom?’ And he was similarly forceful in an interview on the Today programme, the full transcript of which we’ve got here. Gove is emphatic about how important this is. ‘The evidence is quite clear,’ he says. ‘If you’re with a bad teacher, you can go back a year; if you’re with a good teacher you can leap ahead a year.

Transcript: Gove on sacking teachers

This morning, the Education Secretary went on the Today programme to explain his plans to make it easier to sack teachers. Here’s the full transcript: James Naughtie: From the start of the next school year in England, head teachers will find it easier to remove teachers that are considered to be under-performers.  The Education Secretary, Michael Gove, thinks the process is too cumbersome so it is being streamlined. The National Union of Teachers, as we heard earlier, says it could become a bullies’ charter.  Well Mr Gove is with us. Good morning. Michael Gove: Good morning. JN: Bullies? MG: I don’t believe so.

More Mili-woe

It gets worse for Ed Miliband in the polls today. After revealing last week that just 20 per cent of the public think he's doing well as Labour leader, YouGov now find that only 17 per cent think he'd make the best Prime Minister. That's his lowest score yet, and it compares to 41 per cent for David Cameron. But the way those numbers break down may be even more worrying for Ed. Only half of current Labour supporters say he'd be the best PM, and a minority — just 43 per cent — of 2010 Labour voters pick him. By contrast, Cameron has the backing of 97 per cent of Tory voters. Of course Miliband's personal ratings have been poor for a long time, but they're now worse than ever.

The Obama-Romney electoral map

Of course, Mitt Romney hasn't secured the Republican nomination yet. But now that the bookies have him odds on at 1/9, it's definitely worth thinking about how he'd shape up against Barack Obama. Does he have much of a chance? Well, yes, actually. The head-to-head polls so far point to a close fight between Obama and Romney. And Obama's approval ratings and GDP growth forecasts — better predictors of the result at this stage — also point to a very tight election. It's shaping up to be one of those elections where the key to victory is not the national popular vote, but the Electoral College. It'll be winning each individual state, and its electoral votes, that matters. 270 is the target. The map above — which I produced at 270towin.

Romney wins comfortably this time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lzNeRrD__o Last night Mitt Romney became the first Republican, excluding sitting Presidents, to win both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary. And unlike in Iowa last week, his supporters didn't have to wait until the next day to start celebrating. The exit polls were enough for Romney to be declared the winner within an hour of the voting booths closing. And now, with 95 per cent of the votes counted, he's secured about 39 per cent of the vote – slightly higher than the share McCain received in 2008, and 16 points ahead of Ron Paul this time. Romney looks more the inevitable nominee than ever, and his victory speech (above) sounded very much like the start of his general election campaign.

Can Scotland make it on its own?

What would an independent Scotland's public finances look like? ‘Good, actually,’ says the SNP as they present their ongoing case for independence. They like to claim that, discounting the rest of the UK, Scotland was in surplus for ‘four out of the last five years’ — it's Westminster, not Holyrood, that can't manage the public's money.  Which would be a powerful argument were it actually true. You see, the SNP are talking about the ‘current budget balance’, which excludes the £6.4 billion a year that Scotland spends on capital. When you include that spending — according to the Scottish government's own figures — there has been a deficit for every one of the last five years.

What to expect in New Hampshire

Tonight's New Hampshire primary is very unlikely to provide the sort of razor-thin margin we saw in Iowa last week. Mitt Romney looks assured of a comfortable win – Nate Silver's poll-based model (above) gives him a 98 per cent chance of victory. If one of the others did somehow beat him, it'd be the biggest upset of any modern US primary. The only real questions are just how comfortable it'll be (20 points? 30? or just 10?), and who will come second. The polls suggest the battle for runner-up will be between Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Paul is the favourite to take it, but the momentum of the past few days has been with Huntsman. Santorum and Gingrich look to be within striking distance, but theirs will more likely be a fight for fourth.

Romney hit from all sides on investment career

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M I noted on Saturday that one of the main attacks the Democrats are employing against Mitt Romney revolves around his 14 years as head of Bain Capital, a private equity investment firm which he co-founded. The argument is that Romney made a fortune as head of a company that was responsible for the closure of businesses and the laying off of thousands of American workers. Romney’s rebuttal is that this is how free enterprise works — in a debate on Saturday, he said: 'in the free economy, in the private sector, sometimes investments don't work and you're not successful...

Democrats ready to face Romney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUOM9QvhG5I As James said yesterday, Mitt Romney is well on the way to becoming the Republican nominee. He is virtually certain to win New Hampshire on Tuesday – Nate Silver’s projections give him a 99 per cent chance of victory – and he’s odds on in South Carolina and Florida too, which would give him a clean sweep of the January primaries. It’s not the outcome Team Obama were hoping for – they’d have had a much easier ride against just about any of the other candidates (save perhaps Jon Huntsman) – but it is the one they were expecting. As a result, they’re ready for him, and Romney’s already been the focus of Democrat attacks for several months.

Miliband comes out swinging

After being mostly absent in an embarrassing week, which culminates in today's Sun headline of 'Block Ed' referring to the Labour leader's Twitter gaffe yesterday, Ed Miliband has emerged with a self-assured interview in the Guardian. In parts, he is even boastful. Miliband declares himself 'someone of real steel and grit' and brags 'I am the guy who took on Murdoch... I am the guy that said the rules of capitalism as played in the last 30 years have got to change'. He claims – contrary to Maurice Glasman's criticism this week – to have 'a very clear plan' about what needs to change in Britain. And what is it exactly?

The debate over assisted suicide

Looking at today's report by the Commission on Assisted Dying, the first thing that jumps out is just how comprehensive it is. They reach the conclusion that assisted suicide should be legalised — and they've done so after hundreds of hours of consultation with various groups and experts, as well as sifting through the evidence from countries where various forms of assisted dying are allowed. This is no rush job.

Abbott’s Twitter troubles

That Diane Abbott tweet that Pete mentioned earlier ('White people love playing divide and rule') has made her the centre of attention this morning. She may have deleted it, and claimed that it has been 'taken out of context', but still the Labour Party has deemed it necessary to give her a public telling off for it. A spokesman said: 'We disagree with Diane’s tweet. It is wrong to make sweeping generalisations about any race, creed, or culture. The Labour Party has always campaigned against such behaviour – and so has Diane Abbott.' And Abbott herself has now apologised, although not exactly wholeheartedly: 'I understand people have interpreted my comments as making generalisations about white people. I do not believe in doing that.

Iowa’s losers

Back in September, Rick Perry was the betting favourite to win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination. Instead, he scored just 10 per cent of the vote last night, leaving him down in fifth place. This disappointing result may well be the final nail in the coffin of Perry's campaign, and last night he certainly sounded like a candidate at the end of the line: 'With the voters' decision tonight in Iowa, I've decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race... With a little prayer and a little reflection, I'm going to decide the best path forward.

What to expect in Iowa

Tonight, caucus-goers in Iowa will deliver their verdict on this year's Republican candidates for President. Above are Nate Silver's latest poll-based projections of the result, showing three candidates with a decent chance of victory: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum, who has surged in Iowa over the past week following endorsements from influential social conservatives Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, could win tonight despite not having led a single poll. Which candidate prevails will depend largely on turnout. Like Obama four years ago, Paul's hopes lie with those who would not usually vote in the Republican caucuses: Independents, Democrats and young people. But, also like Obama four years ago, his supporters seem to be the most enthusiastic.