Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race for California Governor after a series of sexual misconduct allegations. Republicans may be celebrating the demise of the prominent Democrat, but they should hold off on the champagne for now. Swalwell’s exit only increases the chance of two Democrats moving through to the run-off, depriving the GOP of a place on the ticket.
However some Republicans still believe that the two GOP candidates in the race – Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco – can make it through California’s jungle primary and face each other in November. While it sounds exciting and makes a good social media meme, such wishful thinking could cause Republicans to blow a historic opportunity to defeat a deeply unpopular and chaotic Democratic party in California.
Two Republicans advancing to California’s general election for a statewide office has never happened in the 14 years since Proposition 14 enacted the top-two primary system. That is thirty-two total statewide races: it is hard to see how 2026 will be an exception.
Republicans have seen success in a handful of congressional races where two Republicans advanced to the general election, but these wins happened in districts where Republicans have a clear voter registration advantage. Statewide elections are different. They encompass Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and other deep blue regions that dominate the vote count. Los Angeles County alone casts more votes than the bottom 20 counties combined. Despite Republican growth in recent years, California remains a heavily Democratic state, with Democrats holding a substantial registration advantage and independents often breaking left in statewide contests.
With around a two to one voter registration advantage, Democrats outnumber Republicans by around 4.6 million registered voters in the state. This translates into percentages of around 45 percent for the Democrats and 25 percent for Republicans. This is relevant to the jungle primary because Democrats can afford to split 45 percent down the middle and still win decisively. Republicans cannot share their 25 percent and progress. There are simply not enough voters to go round for the GOP to have the luxury of two candidates.
The moment the Democrats consolidate around even two or three candidates, they will squeeze the Republican choices out.
Swalwell’s exit makes that more likely, even if by accident. Though he is still on the ballot, his vote will now dwindle fast and migrate to other candidates. No candidate on the Democratic side is lighting up the contest – Katie Porter remains uninspiring, and Tom Steyer only leads because he is throwing money at the race. But the pool is now smaller and that increases the chance of Democratic consolidation.
That is not to say a Republican cannot win the Gubernatorial election. If the right candidate is nominated, someone with broad appeal with the very large number of independents could win. If they can carve out a portion of Democrats who are tired of their state’s extreme leftward tilt and inability to function – while giving belief to the GOP base – a Republican could pull an upset.
But they have to get there first, and right now they risk repeating history in reverse. In 2018, Democrats captured both top-two spots in several statewide races precisely because they dominated the electorate numerically and Republicans split their vote among multiple candidates. The same pattern repeated in 2022.
What is to be done? Republicans need to look at the facts and commit to supporting the candidate who is most likely to get through to the run-off and the most likely to win the general election.
Looking at the data and the profiles of the candidates and their appeal to the general electorate, that candidate is Steve Hilton. Steve Hilton offers Republicans the strongest path forward to win the governor’s race. He brings name recognition, media experience and the ability to speak directly to Californians who feel locked out by one-party rule. He has led every poll over the last month. In the most recent campaign finance reports, Steve Hilton led nearly all candidates in fundraising during the second half of 2025, raising $4.1 million from over 30,000 small-dollar donors, outpacing Eric Swalwell who raised $3.1 million and Katie Porter pulled in $3 million. Hilton’s grassroots enthusiasm shows that his message is resonating beyond the traditional Republican base and his coalition can survive the headwinds in a deep blue state.
I watch and poll races all the time: Steve Hilton has the depth and the breadth to reach across the state and win.
While Chad Bianco has run a serious campaign, he polls lower than Hilton, he is behind on fundraising, and his general election appeal is limited. Given Hilton’s strength, his staying in the race splits Republican voters and weakens the party’s chances. President Donald Trump seems to see this, having endorsed Hilton last week. Meanwhile, the Californian Republican Party is still unable to decide.
If Republicans truly want a shot at beating another Democrat who will continue to push the same corruption Californians have seen over the last 16 years, now is the time for them to rally behind one candidate. Looking at the numbers, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that this candidate is Steve Hilton.
With Swalwell out, consolidation might happen to the Democrats by accident. Republicans’ only chance of staying in the race will be to choose to consolidate themselves. When the party unites behind one candidate early, it maximizes fundraising, volunteer energy and voter clarity.
The jungle primary rewards focus and punishes division. Betting on a rare and unlikely scenario where two Republicans advance is something California Republicans cannot afford. The safer and smarter path is unity. If Republicans understand the numbers, they will choose that path.
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