James Forsyth

Tony Blair has just got out of his car and is walking down the street, hugging and embracing Labour supporters. It is a recreation of that famous walk down Downing Street on May 1st, 1997. The first of many pulls on the heart strings that we’re going to see today. You can say what you like about Blair but it is amazing how much of the magic has survived the decade Just look at this poll in The Guardian today, 44% think he’s been good for Britain—that's higher than the percentage of the vote that Blair got in 1997.

Melissa Kite’s story in the Sunday Telegraph about a coming Tory reshuffle has ruffled feathers. This morning, via the indispensable Conservative Home, comes a highly personal attack on Kite from Alan Duncan who accuses her of “shoddy journalism”, “poor judgement” and tops things off with the line that, “If she really thinks this is authoritative then I doubt she will soon either enjoy much respect or access”.  Duncan’s full-frontal assault is spectacularly ill judged.

Last night I said that it looked like being a mediocre result for David Cameron, well it looks like it was substantially better than that. The Tories have quietly rattled up 875 gains, far more than the 600 or so that they were expected to get. So the Tories must be considered, alongside the SNP, as the big winners. But you wouldn’t know that from listening and watching the Beeb today, who have diverted their eyes from anything as distasteful as a Tory triumph. This isn’t the first time the BBC has downplayed Tory local election success. They did exactly the same in 2003 when Crispin Blunt resigned straight after the polls had closed.

Former Reagan and Bush 1 staffer Bruce Bartlett thinks that conservatives might, out of necessity, end up embracing their favourite hate-figure. Crazy as it sounds his argument has something going for it. The Republicans are in dire straits and Hillary’s the most conservative Democrat running for president by some distance. But people don’t make political decisions on purely rational grounds and the personal animus against Hillary on the right is just too strong methinks. Even if she promised to abolish income tax, overturn Roe versus Wade and privatise social security most conservatives still wouldn’t be able to pull the lever for her.

Iain Dale has an interesting post on which shadow cabinet members get the most press. What strikes you straight away is how David Davis, who gets the most with the exception of David Cameron himself, only gets 17% of the coverage that Cameron does. Indeed, the leader gets considerably more mentions than all of his shadow cabinet put together.

James Forsyth says that the mighty race between the two Senators — the first serious black contender against the first serious female contender — will be the main event, as the Republicans’ fate is decided in Baghdad Clinton’s in, Obama’s in, everybody’s in. Last week the 2008 presidential contest got serious, as the Democratic heavyweights Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama entered the race. Obama announced on Tuesday, Hillary followed on Saturday. Already 16 candidates have launched bids for the White House with as many as eight others expected to join the race soon.

Washington All you need to know about the effectiveness of Labour’s official attacks on David Cameron is that Siôn Simon’s toe-curling spoof video doesn’t look so bad in comparison. Labour has so far failed to land a killer blow on Cameron, suggesting that the next election will be a genuine contest. There is, though, one issue that could resuscitate the Tory Wars, and set Cameroon against Cameroon. The issue isn’t Europe, crime, immigration or even tax. It’s Iran. In Westminster, all attention might be on Iraq following General Sir Richard Dannatt’s ill-advised outburst. But the question of what to do about Iran’s nuclear programme is about to race on to the agenda.