James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

How very Blairite, Brown’s foreign policy is

Gordon Brown’s Mansion House speech lacked the rhetorical flourishes of any Tony Blair address on world affairs but it was substantively far more similar than one would have expected. Indeed, there is, judging by David Cameron’s recent Berlin speech, far more difference between Brown and Cameron than Brown and Blair on the question of Britain’s role in the world. So rather than Cameron’s ‘national security first’, Brown tells us a ‘better world is our best security’. He also explicitly defends the principles of interventionism and a values-led foreign policy. One phrase in the speech which deserves special attention is, “resolutions matter results matter even more.

Balls’s real priorities in education

The more that comes out about the Brown-Blair tensions, the more you realise quite how damaging they were to good government. Just take this example from the forthcoming BBC documentary on the Blair years that the Daily Mail reports today, “Left-wing Labour MP Ian Gibson reveals how Mr Balls - now Schools Secretary - told him to step up the fight against the fees. He says: "I met Ed and he said, 'Gosh, you've been on the TV and radio a lot recently on the issue, keep going, excellent'."  So a Prime Minister whose passion is education was prepared to have his henchman jeopardise the passage of a hugely important piece of education legislation for purely factional advantage.

Don’t give your opponents ammunition

There is yet another story about Lord Ashcroft’s role with the Tories in the Guardian today. This time the news is that Ashcroft gave David Cameron a ticket to and a flight home from the Rugby World Cup final in Paris. At the risk of coming over all hair-shirt, this strikes me as a mistake. Ashcroft’s organization is obviously playing a key role in the marginals and going a long way to neutralise the incumbency advantage that MPs have but this kind of personal association risks fostering the impression of a party overly reliant on the largesse of one individual. Labour have obviously decided to make a big deal out of the Ashcroft connection and it seems foolish for the Tories to add any fuel, however small, to the fire.

Brown’s world

Gordon Brown’s Mansion House speech tonight will be pored over for hints about the direction of British foreign policy.  As Jackie Ashley, a columnist normally sympathetic to the Prime Minister, writes in The Guardian, “Brown's "vision" for foreign policy remains even more opaque than his domestic vision.” There is no desire in Downing Street for the Brown premiership to become as defined by foreign policy as Blair’s was. But as Tim Hames argues in The Times the moment of decision coming down the track on Iran, means that Brown might well have to make a fundamental choice on foreign policy before the next election.    To date, Brown seems determined not to box himself in.

The question Aitken still needs to answer

Jonathan Aitken’s return to Tory politics to lead a review on prison reform for Iain Duncan-Smith's Centre for Social Justice makes me uneasy. As Peter Preston writes in The Observer, “to this day, we still don't know why the minister we trusted to oversee our defence procurement was in Paris that long-ago weekend to meet the Saudis. We know that he lied and was found out, but we don't know why he lied. We're still finding out plenty about the contracts with BAE in the Eighties that Aitken helped put together - because the huge backhanders paid to the Saudis are public knowledge now - but we don't know what happened after he became a minister of the crown.” Until this question is answered, there will always be a cloud over Aitken.

Tories on 43% in new poll

The Tories will be encouraged by the latest ICM poll which puts them at 43%, up 3 on the last one. Labour are steady at 35% with the Lib Dems on 15%, a drop of 3 points. The poll indicates that the Tories would likely have a small overall majority and is the highest level of support for them in an ICM poll since 1992. Gordon Brown’s challenge is to find a way of wrestling the momentum back from David Cameron. This poll suggests that the Queen’s speech failed to do that.

The failings of the MCB

The interview that the head of the Muslim Council of Britain has given to The Daily Telegraph today is phenomenally unhelpful to the cause of community cohesion. Muhammad Abdul Bari throwing around analogies to Germany in the 1930s is only going to polarise the debate.  Yet, it is his response to the news that one in four Mosques are giving house room to hate literature, according to a recent report from Policy Exchange, that is most disappointing. Rather than condemning the literature outright, Dr Bari stonewalls: "The bookshops are independent businesses," he says. "We can't just go in and tell them what to sell … I will see what books they keep, if they have one book which looks like it is inciting hatred, do they have counter books on the same shelf?

Dignity at all costs

If George W. Bush goes down in history as the most disastrous US president since Herbert Hoover, it will be because of his foreign policy mistakes. Yet the person who tutored candidate Bush on foreign policy, co-ordinated it in his first term and was its public face in his second term is probably the most respected member of the Bush administration both at home and abroad. This is the paradox that Marcus Mabry sets out to explain in Condoleezza Rice: Naked Ambition. Throughout the Bush administration, Rice has been the most effective emissary for the President’s foreign policy because she doesn’t fit the stereotype.

Tortured thinking

The debate over torture in the US has descended into tragic farce. Some on the right are so determined to always take the toughest position possible on any war on terror question that they sound like a Stephen Colbert parody of themselves. The most recent example of this is Deroy Murdock, normally someone whose writings are well worth reading, declaring that “Waterboarding is something of which every American should be proud.” When those sympathetic to Murdock called him out for this and said that while waterboarding might be necessary in extreme circumstances—the ticking time bomb and the like—it is not a good thing per se, Murdock waded back in to say "I AM complaining that we do NOT waterboard enough. Yes, we need to waterboard more.

More to Lord Drayson’s resignation than just fast cars

The real reasons behind the timing of Lord Drayson’s resignation are beginning to seep out. Writing for Comment is Free, Robert Fox reveals that Drayson had intended to stay until the summer but brought forward his departure because of No 10’s refusal to sign off on a new defence industrial strategy which was designed to address a shortfall in the procurement budget of around £10 to £15bn over the next decade.  What it all boils down to is how badly underfunded the military has been in recent years. Between this year and 2011, as Robert Fox notes, defence spending as a percentage of GDP will drop 2.3 to 2.1%. Everyone has been so keen to spend the peace dividend that they have failed to notice that war hasn’t gone away.

Will Lord Carlile have the Lib Dem whip withdrawn?

Nick Clegg went on Political Betting this morning to answer questions from the site’s users. Most of his answers were fairly standard, but he did hint that Lord Carlile might have the Lib Dem withdrawn from him under his leadership if he carried on advocating an extension to the 28 day pre-charge detention period.Here’s the exchange:  Q: The Liberal Democrat peer, Lord Carlile is being quoted by the Government as a supporter of an extension in the 28 days detention. If you were Leader of the Liberal Democrats what would you do about a peer actively working with the Government contrary to the party’s policy?  A: Alex and I have discussed this on a number of occassions and have clashed openly about his views in public.

Labour and the Lib Dems raise concerns over Ashcroft

The row over the influence of Lord Ashcroft takes another turn with a story in The Guardian this morning about whether or not Lord Ashcroft has returned to the UK and is now paying tax in this country. Labour and the Lib Dems are keen to stoke up this issue and David Heath, the Lib Dems’s constitutional spokesman, tells the paper: "No one should take a place in the legislature of this country who doesn't pay taxes in this country. If he has reneged [on his agreement] it's very simple: he should no longer be a member of the House of Lords. He has a stark choice. He has given assurances - it's up to him to show he has kept them. If he has nothing to hide, he should make clear he pays taxes in this country like everyone else.

Man of the Year

Time magazine are inviting people to vote for their person of the year. The shortlist is Al Gore Hillary Clinton Hu Jintao Steve Jobs Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Barack Obama General Petraeus Vladimir Putin Condoleezza Rice JK Rowling. To my mind, it has to be Petraeus. At the beginning of this year, Iraq looked like a lost cause but now thanks to his strategy there are real grounds for optimism. When you think of the consequences of failure—an emboldened Iran, a weakened America, a base for terrorists in the heart of the Middle East, the real risk of a region-wide sectarian war—you realise what a difference Petraeus has made.

Can’t get no Respect

The internecine warfare at Respect just took another turn with George Galloway denying that he has left the party. There now seems to be a bitter dispute between Galloway’s faction and the Socialist Workers Party about which group is going to have to be the one to actually break away. The SWP are claiming that Galloway’s decision to hold a rival party conference suggests that he is the one who has left, while Galloway’s lot are refusing to budge.

This time with feeling

Tara Hamilton-Miller has a great little blind item in this week’s New Statesman:  A shadow secretary of state, who shall remain nameless, decided to sing and briefly weep to a Radiohead song in a northern university student union (determined, clenched, porcine fist punch ing the air during the rocky bit). She sang with such feeling that even the greasy left-wing undergraduates in the smoky basement were moved enough to keep the experience private.

Respectable behaviour

Respect is finally collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. Daniel Finkelstein reports that George Galloway has kicked out the Socialist Workers. However, this is only the beginning of the fun. Danny points to a statement posted on the party’s website: Dear Members, Respect has been locked out of its head office. Overnight the locks were changed on the Respect national office. This action excludes most National Officers, the national office staff and the majority of Respect members who support them from their own organisation's headquarters. All one can say is that it couldn’t have happened to a nicer party. It is a good job that they have a leader with such courage, strength and indefatigability to try and get them through this crisis.

What will it take for Sir Ian Blair to quit?

The Met have been convicted of breaching of Health and Safety Laws, the London Assembly has passed a vote of no confidence in him but still Sir Ian Blair clings onto power. At some point, actually a long time ago, Blair should have done the decent thing and resigned. Arguing, as Livingstone does, that all this fuss over Blair’s position is some kind of boon for the terrorists is tripe. By that logic for the rest of this struggle, which will go on for a generation at least, we won’t be able to hold any public figure to account for their actions. If we were to do that, we really would be letting the terrorists win.

Race for the White House hots up

Today is a big day in the race for the Republican nomination with both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain (pictured) rolling out major endorsements from influential Christian conservatives. Giuliani wheeled out Pat Robertson, the one time presidential candidate and a hugely powerful figure in the movement. Robertson’s backing should help reassure those who fear that Giuliani’s pro-choice stance could split the Republican Party.