James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

McCain’s first step to the nomination

John McCain’s commanding win here makes him, remarkably for a candidate who was written off for dead last summer, the favourite to be the Republican nominee in November. To be sure, he still has obstacles to come most notably his difference with the Republican base on immigration and the distrust that some of the more conservative sections of the party feel for him. But he now has the momentum to win Michigan, which would finish Romney off, and once has done that he is left facing Mike Huckabee and Giuliani who have their own more serious issues with sections of the Republican party. The victory speech McCain delivered tonight was beautifully crafted. McCain is not a great orator but he speaks with sincerity giving the lines that he delivers a real emotional force.

James Forsyth

ABC call New Hampshire for Obama

The big question now is the margin. If it is less than five the Clintons will spin a comeback narrative, if it is double digits for Obama then the meltdown storyline will continue. UPDATE: Bad info, sorry. Hillary Clinton pulled off a remarkable comeback victory which I'll try and explain in a minute.

James Forsyth

<p><strong>McCain wins New Hampshire</strong></p>

This place has just errupted with the news that the networks have called New Hampshire for McCain. Considering how quickly this has been called, McCain must have won by a comfortable margin suggesting that he should have enough momentum to take Michigan. Also worth noting that the Democratic race has yet to be called, implying McCain's margin is bigger than Obama's.

James Forsyth

On to South Carolina: Hillary gets back on track

But it’s all still to play for, says James Forsyth. Senator Clinton’s astonishing comeback does not mean that Obama is finished by any means -— and John McCain has injected much-needed energy into the Republican primaries, too Hillary Clinton has now done something that her husband never managed: she has won a contested New Hampshire primary. In doing so, she has revived her presidential campaign and ensured that the 2008 Democratic presidential primary will be an epic and drawn-out contest. Her recovery from near political death is up there with Truman’s defeat of Dewey as the greatest comeback story in the history of American politics.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

This could be a blow out

Extra Democratic ballots are needed in a string of towns, this is great news for Obama—who won in Iowa by bringing new people into the caucuses—and bad for Hillary Clinton. A double-digit loss would be a hammer blow to her campaign and if the margin climbs to around 15 points we would be well into humiliation territory. John McCain’s team must also be a little worried that this suggests that very few independents are voting in the Republican primary. One more sign of Obama’s momentum is that his campaign are having to turn away donors from a fundraiser in New York—the adopted hometown of Hillary Clinton—tomorrow night. The question is how far are the Clintons prepared to go to try and take Obama down?

James Forsyth

If you want to win big, you’ve got to think big

The post-mortems are already beginning on the Clinton campaign as everyone here is expecting a big Obama win tonight; the spin from her side is that if they can keep the margin in single figures then it will be a good night for them. In trying to understand why Hillary’s star has fallen so far so fast, it is worth considering why she was running in the first place, the essential essence of their candidacy is what a politician can return to when things gets tough. But as Chuck Todd, the political director of NBC News, points out, Hillary never really laid out why she was running. Her slogan was “In it, to win it”, which raises the question of why she is in it now that she’s not winning.

James Forsyth

Hillary supporters rally to her but there’s no sign that she is set to be the new comeback kid

The line of cars trying to get into the Clinton event tonight must have been more than a couple of miles long and her supporters were noisy, clearly determined that if she is to go down here she will do so with dignity. Encouragingly for her campaign, her emotional moment earlier in the day is playing sympathetically and hasn’t been used to declare her political death. This was the first time that I had seen Bill and Hillary at a rally together. He didn’t speak this evening, unlike at her pre-caucus rally in Iowa, but he was a distracting presence. You do find yourself constantly looking to him to see how he is reacting to things that she says.

James Forsyth

McCain and Romney go to the wire in New Hampshire

John McCain and Mitt Romney have both been criss-crossing the Granite state in one last quest for votes. McCain’s Straight Talk Express pulled a decent, but far from spectacular, crowd in Manchester earlier. Mitt Romney filled a school hall in Bedford. There’s a bond between McCain and New Hampshire voters, as one undecided voter (she’s picking between Hillary, Obama and McCain) told me he’s a maverick and this is a maverick state. McCain was in feisty form emphasising his ability to be commander in chief from day one—working in a reference to today’s incident in the Straits of Hormuz into his remarks—and his outsider status in an attempt to deflect the Romney critique that he is a creature of Washington.

Monday

James Forsyth

Did Hillary just alienate black voters?

Hillary Clinton has been trying to raise doubts about Barack Obama by talking about the limits of hope. Obama has counter-punched by pointing out that many of the greatest advances in American history were due to hope and that hope is an essential American quality; one that inspired the Colonists in 1776, the abolitionists and  the civil rights movement among others. The trailblazing nature of his candidacy makes this a particularly effective rejoinder.  Now, Ben Smith is reporting that Hillary said this to Fox News: "Dr. King's dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act," Clinton said. "It took a president to get it done.

James Forsyth

<strong>The sharks gather</strong>

A whole slew of polls have now confirmed that Obama is surging ahead of Hillary here in New Hampshire. To compound the problem for the  Clinton camp, there is now a full media feeding frenzy. Bill’s comment that “We can’t be a new story, I’m sorry. I can’t make her younger, taller, male” became the story for cable news this morning and now Drudge is claiming that there’s chatter about Hillary getting out of the race. Considering the circumstances, it is hardly surprising that Hillary’s voice cracked on the trail this morning. But having just seen the video (available here) I think this moment humanises her more than anything else. It would take a heart of stone not to feel some sympathy for her as her dreams collapse around her.

James Forsyth

How badly will Rudy do?

Rudy Giuliani’s sixth place finish in Iowa could be shrugged off as he had never really put that much effort into the state and as Iowa with its socially conservative Republican base was never going to be hospitable territory for a thrice-married, socially liberal former New York Mayor. But New Hampshire with its more small government, libertarian-leaning electorate was meant to be much more hospitable territory for him. Indeed, Giuliani made a major play for the state late last year only reducing his emphasis on it when a TV advertising blast failed to move the needle. So it will be much harder for Giuliani to shrug off a poor finish here. But that is precisely what he is heading for according to the latest polling averages.

James Forsyth

Twenty hours in America

 Voting in New Hampshire starts in 21 hours time and unless something dramatic happens between now and then Barack Obama will win big. If he does, the nomination will be his barring a game-changing error from him or some event—say a confrontation between US and Iranian ships in the Straits of Hormuz turning hot—redefining the election. On the Republican side things are tighter. The polls suggest that John McCain should win but by a relatively small margin. After Saturday’s night debate where all the candidates heavily criticised Romney his campaign could have imploded, but a strong Sunday performance in a televised candidate forum has stopped the bleeding.

James Forsyth

<strong>New polls show Obama with a double digit lead in New Hampshire</strong>

The latest New Hampshire polls suggest that Obama is going to blow Clinton away here. He leads by 13 in the Gallup poll and is 10 ahead in the CNN/WMUR poll. These polls match the mood on the ground where the buzz around the Obama events is the talk of the trail. (The photo gives you a sense of the line at the Obama event I blogged about on Saturday) If the polls are right, one would have to expect Obama to win South Carolina where he was level-pegging even before his Iowa victory. At this point, Hillary would face a choice.

James Forsyth

<strong>The Republicans debate</strong>

Tonight, the Republican presidential contenders—minus Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter—hold another televised debate here in New Hampshire. Last night, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani all piled on to Mitt Romney. In the spin room afterwards, their surrogates continued to unload on the former Massachusetts governor and so the big question tonight is whether Romney will face another sustained assault. At the Huckabee event today it was noticeable that he was still, even if not mentioned by name, the major target of Huckabee’s criticisms with Huckabee making cracks about Romney’s hunting bona fides and the amount of his own money that he is pouring into his campaign.

James Forsyth

<strong>How Huckabee is tailoring his message to New Hampshire</strong>

After Hillary’s rally this morning, we drove out to Mike Huckabee’s chowder-fest in the small town of Wyndham. The whole event was a testament to what a versatile politician Huckabee is. He won in Iowa by being, as his adverts controversially called him, a “Christian leader” but here in New Hampshire, where the evangelical population is only three percent, he has dialled the God factor right down. Instead, he is accentuating his economic populism and his humble origins. The room resounded with applause when he told the crowd, “you’re the ones who make the decisions, not the Wall Street types.”  The Huckabee campaign signed in 600 people but were claiming that the actual attendance was closer to 1,000.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Hillary needs a convincing critique of Obama–and fast

Hillary Clinton’s new strategy was evident at her canvas kick off this morning. She kept stressing how she, unlike Obama, had actually delivered change. She rattled off—Gordon Brown style—the numbers of New Hampshire children, national guard members and veterans she had ‘delivered’ health care to. However, it is hard to see this line of attack bringing voters flooding to her side and I expect that as Hillary talks in Washington acronyms about her achievements she is probably reinforcing the Obama-Edwards charge that she is part of the Washington status quo. With Obama 10 points up in the latest CNN/WMUR poll, Hillary needs to find a more potent critique of him if she is stop him from repeating his Iowa triumph here.

James Forsyth

Hillary’s quest for votes

I’m at a Hillary “canvas kick off” in Manchester, New Hampshire this morning and the Hillary supporters are out in force making more noise than is entirely decent at this time in the morning in an attempt to inject some energy into her flagging campaign. With less than 48 hours until voting starts here, Hillary needs to turn the tide and fast. Hillary’s organisation here is clearly formidable, she has a lot of people prepared to stand outside in the cold and shout themselves hoarse for her. But worryingly for her, there’s none of the spontaneous excitement that characterised Obama’s event yesterday.

James Forsyth

The winners: McCain and Obama

John McCain and Barack Obama won tonight’s debates here in New Hampshire not because of what they did but because of what others did for them. The mass Republican assault on Mitt Romney, which McCain joined in, ensured that McCain’s chief rival in the state left the debate bloodied and bruised. At this point, the stars seem to be aligning for McCain in New Hampshire. If McCain does win here, the other candidates might regret doing him such a favour tonight as the momentum he gains might carry him all the way to the nomination—but you get the impression that the other candidates wouldn’t mind that too much. Logic had little to do with the collective beating administered to Romney, who is no longer the front runner, tonight.

James Forsyth

The Democratic debate

I’m a little late to the party here as I was in the spin room listening to the surrogates for the Republican candidates. So, I’ll come back to the foreign policy section after the debate. The first thing to notice is that John Edwards is riding to Obama’s defence as Hillary tries to attack him. Edwards is depicting Clinton as the candidate of the status quo. Edwards’s attack was brutal. Hillary is firing back now. If she can’t rebut this charge, then it is over for her. Bill Richardson starts with a joke, “I’ve been in hostage negotiations that were more civil than this.” He then goes on to ask what’s wrong with experience and rattles through his record.

James Forsyth

The debate double-header

I’m sitting in the press filing centre at Saint Anselm College where the leading Republican and Democratic presidential candidates are about to hold back to back debates. The stakes are huge—this is Hillary Clinton’s last best chance to halt the Obama bandwagon before the primary on Tuesday. While on the Republican side, Mitt Romney can’t afford a bad showing. Worryingly for Romney, Ed Rollins, a key Huckabee aide, told the New York Times this morning: “We’re going to see if we can’t take Romney out,” Mr. Rollins said. “We like John. Nobody likes Romney.” The first question is on the Bush foreign policy legacy.