James Forsyth

In another sign of the government’s more cautious approach to the July 19 unlocking, Sajid Javid has just told the Commons that government guidance will encourage large venues to use ‘certification’ – in other words, proof of vaccination or a negative test – to determine who is admitted, that those working from home should return to their offices gradually and that masks will be expected to be worn on public transport. This guidance is, obviously, not the same as law but it is a clear sign that the government wants people to carry on behaving cautiously after July 19. It is a long way away from any kind of ‘freedom day’ rhetoric.

The next few weeks in politics will be dominated by the 19 July reopening, and whether hospitals can cope with the coming increase in the number of patients. But, as I say in the magazine this week, if the lifting of Covid restrictions is successful, then attention will turn to the various backlogs that have built up during the pandemic, most notably in education, the NHS and the justice system. In Whitehall, it is believed that one in four households will have someone on the waiting list by the autumn These backlogs will cause all sorts of political problems for the government. Those affected by them will want them cleared with urgency. But there are both capacity and financial constraints to how fast they can be dealt with.

The long-awaited easing of restrictions will not be the triumphant moment that many expected back in May. The Delta variant has seen to that. Increasing infection numbers have made the government nervous about the reopening. From 19 July, ministers will be busy trying to look responsible — consciously putting on their masks in crowded spaces — instead of being photographed gleefully enjoying the return of various freedoms. If case numbers are, as Boris Johnson has predicted they might be, at 50,000 a day and rising on 19 July — and even the double-vaccinated still have to isolate for ten days if they come into contact with an infected person (which will be the case until 16 August) — then that will put a dampener on any celebrations.

Labour have held on to Batley and Spen. In a result that will win some breathing space for Keir Starmer’s leadership, Labour won with a majority of 323 votes. Now, holding on to a seat in a by-election with a substantially reduced majority isn’t a spectacular result for an opposition. But expectations were so low for Labour in this contest, that Starmer will take comfort from this result. If Labour had lost the seat, following their recent defeat in Hartlepool, it would have plunged his leadership into fresh crisis. It would have led to more speculation about a challenge to him. The Tories will be disappointed not to take the seat. The number of times that the Tories brought the contest up at PMQs this week suggested that they thought that they would take it.