James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
It is confirmed, Boris Johnson is the next Mayor of London. Boris won by close to 140,000 votes once second preferences had been counted, a 53 to 47 margin. Boris's victory puts the icing on the cake for the Conservatives who have done better in these elections than they would have dared hope at the beginning of the week. For Boris, it is a phenomenal achievement. He has routed a politician who neither Margaret Thatcher nor Tony Blair could beat.
Still no official word, but The Evening Standard has declared Boris the winner.
The latest William Hills odds for the next leader of the Labour party make interesting reading in the light of last night’s results and the list of cabinet ministers at risk. D Miliband 2/1 E Balls 5/1 A Johnson 7/1 J Straw 10/1 J Purnell 10/1 J Denham 14/1 A Burnham 14/1 Y Cooper 16/1 H Benn 16/1 D Alexander 16/1 E Miliband 16/1 H Harman 20/1 Personally, I quite fancy a sly fiver on Jon Cruddas but William Hills doesn’t offer odds on him yet.
Ben Brogan reports that just to make things even worse for Labour, the incoming General Secretary has resigned. Meanwhile, even Jackie Ashley is saying that Brown only has until the party conference to sort himself out. Somewhere, Cherie Blair is laughing her head off.
Steve Richards is one of the most perceptive commentators on the left, he’s also generally inclined to give Gordon Brown a pretty fair shake. So, his piece for Open House detailing how impressive the Tory achievement last night was and how Labour has ‘no clear route’ towards salvaging its general election chances is all the more devastating. Here's how Richards starts: There are no qualifications. The election results are dire for Labour and a triumph for the Conservatives. The Conservatives can claim much more credibly now that they are on course to win a substantial majority in a general election.
The Tories have an open road ahead of them. Until at least the party conference season, Labour will be in disarray. This provides the Tory with a real opportunity to set the political agenda and lock in the 44 percent of the vote they achieved last night. Boldness now would be seen as a sign of confidence not panic. Perhaps, the most important task for Cameron and Osborne is to set out how they would shift the tax burden from work to waste. A more detailed tax policy to go alongside the already impressive work the Tories have rolled out on education and welfare would give the Tories the core of an election-winning manifesto.
The BBC are confirming that the Tories have taken North Tyneside, a nice psychological boost for the party.
When considering what effect these results will have on the mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party, it is worth remembering that most people are blaming Labour’s ghastly performance on the abolition of the 10p tax band. Now, who was responsible for that? G. Brown. If Boris has won London—which seems almost certain, watch to see what Ken says about why he lost. If he blames his defeat on Labour’s national unpopularity, he will heighten the skittish mood among Labour MPs.
Jeremy Vine just sent a chill down the spine of Labour MPs with extrapolation for how many MPs each party would have if the parties received the same vote-shares in a general election. Labour would be down to fewer than 170 MPs, while the Tories would have nigh-on 400. If, as expected, London falls to the Tories tomorrow, many Labour MPs are going to press the panic button.
In the first elections since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, Labour’s national vote share fell to 24 percent. Labour’s worst result in a generation is bound to further undermine Brown’s position. By contrast, the Tories had a good night. Their national vote share rose to 44 percent and they had a few spectacular results, including a win in Southampton and a performance that shows that they have friends in the north. However, the biggest prize may still await them: the London mayoralty. There is a growing consensus among political pundits that Boris Johnson has won. If that is the case, then May 1st 2008 might become the night when it became clear that the Tories are heading for victory at the next election.
Geoff Hoon is turning in one of the worst TV performances I've ever seen by a front-line politician. His attempt to pretend that the results really aren't that bad is making him look like Baghdad Bob.
The national vote equivalents that the BBC just projected are dire for Gordon Brown. Under him, Labour are doing worse than they were under Tony Blair at the height of public discontent with the Iraq war. The Tories are up to 44 percent, a formidable showing and one that was at the high end of expectations for them at the beginning of the night. Nick Clegg will be relieved to have forced Labour into third. Geoff Hoon is trying to dismiss the Tory performance tonight and suggests that Cameron won’t be too happy with the results, he just sounds ridiculous though.
The BBC is now predicting that Labour’s vote share will be only 24 percent, a disaster for Gordon Brown. William Hague is bullish, claiming that tonight is a big step forward for the Conservatives. Ed Miliband, now on for Tessa Jowell, and has conceded that the government has had a bad few months. Doing a Fraser and thinking forward to Labour without Brown, you have to wonder whether Ed Miliband might be a contender. He is certainly a better media performer than the vast majority of the cabinet.
The Tory victory in Southampton is the first sign that something big might be happening tonight; no one had this one down as a possible change. John Denham is blustering terribly on the BBC trying to explain the result away. Meanwhile, Tessa Jowell—while not conceding London—is taking every opportunity to distance Labour nationally from the London result, hardly a sign of confidence.
George Osborne really is in his element on the BBC’s election night special. Every time Dimbleby comes to him, Osborne stresses how this is Brown’s first electoral test and if things are as bad as they look for Labour, Brown has some explaining to do. No Tory politician enjoys getting under Brown’s skin more than Osborne does. Update: Ben Brogan predicts Labour has slipped below 25 percent, a disaster for Brown, while Sky is mapping these results onto a general election and predicting a Tory majority of 144.
There are many in small ‘c’ conservative circles who do not yet love David Cameron—often this has more to do with them than Cameron—but no one can credibly claim that he is not a huge asset to the Tory party. The BBC exit poll shows that 68 percent of voters think Cameron is an asset to the party and only 24 percent say he’s a liability. By contrast, Brown’s net rating is minus ten.
A poor early result for the Tories, failing to take Worcester. The home of Worcester Woman has not yet left Labour all together, which is consolation for Gordon Brown.
Tessa Jowell, George Osborne and Charlie Kennedy just got the chance to set expectations for their respective parties on the BBC's election special and their answers were rather revealing. Jowell waffled her way through Dimbleby’s question about whether she has a sense of foreboding, stressing that she wasn’t going to pre-judge anything. Osborne, who seemed even more confident than usual, instantly set this up as a test of Gordon Brown’s premiership, emphasising that it was his first electoral test. Kennedy downplayed Lib Dem’s chances. The BBC’s key ward projections are suggesting that the Tories have had a god night, the Lib Dems a bad one and Labour a mediocre one. Meanwhile, Sam Coates is saying that Labour are saying that London is too close to call.
I’m very much inclined to believe Conservative Home’s claim that Boris has won London, but my faith has been bolstered by Nick Robinson’s latest blog post. Here’s how he starts and finishes: “The Tories are beginning to believe that Boris has beaten Ken in London.” “The key to the result will be who was more motivated to vote - Ken haters or Boris fearers. My guess, the haters may just have it.
The Electoral Reform Society has produced an invaluable briefing on tonight’s event. Handily, it includes the times that the key results are expected to be called—remember that the counting in London doesn’t begin until tomorrow although there should be an exit poll after the polls close at ten. The results to look for are Bury (expected at midnight) which is currently under no overall control, if the Tories can go from having a plurality of the seats to a majority it will suggest that the Cameron effect is spreading beyond London. North Tyneside (another one at midnight) is very possibly the win the Conservatives want most as it would show that they have friends in the north. Coventry (not expected to declare until 3am) could slightly sour Cameron’s night.