James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Monday

James Forsyth

Tackling knife crime

Stephen has a good piece in today’s Times arguing that the way to deal with the current wave of knife crime is not to pass yet more laws but to enforce fully the ones that are already on the books. As Stephen notes, In 2006, only nine of the 6,314 people convicted of carrying a knife were handed down a maximum sentence. Most were given a caution.  One of the great failings of this government has been the belief that legislation can cut crime. In reality, the many criminal justice bills passed are only the worth the paper they’re written on if they are properly enforced.

James Forsyth

A Straw in the wind

Today’s Guardian reveals that Brown, unsurprisingly, plans to hang on until the last possible moment before going to the country. Brown hopes that two years will give him time to turn thing round or—more realistically—that something will turn up in this period. More immediately, though, all eyes seem to be on Jack Straw who is, word has it, putting himself forward as the man who could tell Gordon the game is up. The Guardian reports that: Eyebrows were raised when Straw pulled out of a planned broadcast interview on Friday in the wake of the byelection defeat. It is not clear when he will next appear on the media. "Jack Straw is strangely silent," one senior Labour figure said. But this speculation was dismissed by Straw supporters.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Labour’s problems go far deeper than Brown

There’s a seductive narrative emerging that places all the blame for Labour’s problems on Gordon Brown’s personal and presentational failings. It has obvious appeal to those Labour MPs who believe that if Brown would go all would be well and to our personality-driven media. But as Matt writes in The Sunday Telegraph, “It is certainly an epic delusion to imagine that the removal of Mr Brown and his instant replacement by A N Other would do the trick.” The truth is that Labour has been directionless for quite a while now. Tony Blair had towards the end of his premiership a clear idea of where he wanted to take the country next, but his party wouldn’t let him go there.

James Forsyth

Miliband far from Shermanesque in his denials

David Miliband was on Adam Boulton’s show today and described reports that he is manoeuvring for the leadership as ‘fiction’. But his denial of interest in challenging Brown left him plenty of wriggle room : "I am not in the market for any job other than the one I have at the moment.” If Miliband really wants to show that he is not signalling to Labour MPs that he would step in if other people would do the dirty work of getting rid of Brown then he needs to issue a Shermanesque statement. Sherman, a Union Civil War General, denied all interest in running for president in1884 with the statement "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve.

James Forsyth

Miliband on manoeuvres

The Sunday Times reports this morning that David Miliband is readying himself for a run at the leadership. A source close to Miliband tells the paper that “David is not going to do anything until a vacancy arises, but he is ready to go for it. There will be no public display from him in the next few weeks but he and his supporters will be making it clear to backbenchers that there is an alternative to Gordon.” Miliband’s plan reflects a phenomenal sense of entitlement. He plans to leave to his colleagues the grubby and difficult task of prising Brown from Number 10. He will then glide into the leadership contest expecting the support of those who have just risked their careers to remove the Prime Minister.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Campbell to Cherie: I never swore at your hairdresser

There is a classic letter from Alistair Campbell in The Times today disputing Cherie Blair’s account in her book of how Campbell swore at her hairdresser.   Sir, Before “you’re only a f***ing hairdresser” replaces “we don’t do God” as my most quoted remark, could I make clear that while I did say “we don’t do God” to an American magazine journalist, I have never described Andre Suard as “only a f***ing hairdresser” to anyone.

James Forsyth

Miliband’s gift to McCain

John McCain and Barack Obama have been involved in a fierce back and forth about Obama’s willingness to meet with the Iranian leadership without preconditions. McCain claims that Obama’s willingness to do this shows that he does not have the judgement or the experience to be commander in chief, while Obama argues that McCain’s refusal to sit down with America’s enemies proves that McCain comes from the George W. Bush school of diplomacy. David Miliband has now waded into this debate. The Times reports that when Miliband met with Obama’s foreign policy team he queried the wisdom of Obama’s proposed approach. This is fantastic news for the McCain campaign who will be delighted that this news has leaked out.

James Forsyth

Will Carter get Brown?

Gordon Brown has survived the first 30 hours after Crewe and Nantwich. In public, the cabinet has remained supportive and even among backbenchers those prepared to openly call for leadership contest are few and far between. Behind the scenes, though, things are different—just look at the string of anonymous quotes in today’s papers. But no one is yet prepared to be, in Martin Kettle’s phrase, ‘Labour’s Geoffrey Howe.’ One man to watch in all this is Stephen Carter, the man that Brown hired to create and market ‘new Gordon.’ If Carter were to walk it would be taken as proof that Brown is incapable of change and that Labour has no chance of winning the next election.

James Forsyth

Writing Labour off

Peter Riddell  is rightly regarded as the dean of the Parliamentary press corp. He is not a man prone to exaggeration or over-excitement which is what makes the conclusion to his column this morning so important: Ministers and MPs have to decide whether to continue with him, or to change leader again in the hope of reducing, if not preventing, electoral defeat. The combination of the May Day elections and Crewe and Nantwich has persuaded Westminster that the Tories will win the next election with an overall majority; the conversation has now shifted to how Labour can minimise its loses. One wonders how much stomach the new hired hands at Number 10 have for a damage limitation exercise.

Friday

James Forsyth

If Labour want to limit the damage, then Alan Johnson is their best bet

One of the reasons that most pundits still think that Gordon Brown will survive is that there is no obvious alternative to him. Personally, I’m sceptical as to whether anyone could now deny the Tories an overall majority at the next election barring some unforeseen event; the public mood really does appear to have shifted decisively against Labour. However, I do think that Alan Johnson would keep the Tory majority down more effectively than anyone else. Johnson is the best communicator in the cabinet and has a natural rapport with the voters. His life story is attractive and he seems to understand the aspiring classes better than anyone else in government.

James Forsyth

Has anyone seen this man?

Update: In the comments, Emily points to a BBC interview with Ed Balls that I missed. So, I owe Mr Balls an apology. However, I would be even more impressed if Balls went and did one of the big set-piece interviews this weekend.   One of the least appealing aspects of the Brownites is how they scarper at the first sign of trouble.

James Forsyth

If Labour need ideas…

Clive points out that John Prescott is a late addition to the line-up at the Festival of Ideas in Bristol. Maybe, Prezza is going to reinvent himself as the new Labour philosopher.

James Forsyth

Not so capital

Before we get back to discussing Crewe and Nantwich and what happens next, I’m going to have a little rant about London traffic and the price of taxis. This morning, I was doing in an interview near Marble Arch and then going to have lunch at half twelve with Clive Davis on Greek Street. The interview finished about 12:15 so to be sure I’d be on time, I decided to hail a cab. 25 minutes and £13.80 later, I arrived in Greek Street. Now, I’m not quire sure whether I’m more irritated by it taking 25 minutes to go 2.4 miles or that it cost me £5.75 per mile. It used to be said that in New York there was a $20 leaving your apartment tax, in London these days it feels like there’s a £25 fee for going out of your front door.

James Forsyth

What we know now

Here are a few things that I think we’ve learnt from last night’s result: 1). The Tories are now the best closers in British politics: In London, the local elections and last night the Tories did significantly better than the final opinion polls suggested they would. This suggests that the Tory ground game is now good enough to add a couple of points to their score. At the next election, this could make the difference between a slim and solid Tory majority. 2). ‘Tory hatred’ no longer moves votes: The Labour campaign desperately tried to whip up prejudice against a public school educated, lawyer who looked and sounded like a Tory.

James Forsyth

Does Labour have no alternative to Brown?

Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely: "Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even - unlikely - if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political downturn than they do of a recession. There will be a lot of talk - up to cabinet level - but little more at this stage. Why?

James Forsyth

Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?

If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing. A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would have sounded as, if not more, absurd as the idea that the Tories would win Crewe and Nantwich with a majority of nearly 8,000. But now it seems possible if not yet probable.

James Forsyth

Tory majority of 7,860

The Returning Officer has just declared the official result and Edward Timpson is the new MP for Crewe and Nantwich. This is a massive defeat for Labour and will make many Labour MPs distinctly fearful about their own prospects.

James Forsyth

Final result sometime after 2am

No one is disputing that Labour has taken a mighty kicking tonight but we are going to have to wait until a little bit after 2am for the formal declaration. Turnout was high at 58 percent, but the word is that Tory Nantwich turned out in force while Labour Crewe stayed at home. This suggests that the Labour campaign had the opposite effect from intended--turning out the Tory base.