James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Change on the plane

Airlines these days seem to be finding any number of ways to squeeze some extra cash out of us. Some are now charging to check a bag, others for priority boarding. But as Phillipe Reines, who has taken more plan flight this year than most of us have had hot dinners in his role as Chelsea Clinton’s press chaperone, points out in a rather witty Wall Street Journal op-ed, there are other, better ways for the airline to make an extra buck or two. I like kids, I swear. But I'd pay almost anything not to sit in close proximity to one who is misbehaving. I will fork over 15 cents for every year of age over 10 for each passenger sitting directly next to me, in front of me, and behind me.

James Forsyth

Labour’s latest problem in Glasgow East

After an embarrassingly drawn out selection process with potential candidates dropping out or refusing Prime Ministerial entreaties to enter the fray, Labour has a candidate in Glasgow East, Margaret Curran who is currently a Glasgow MSP. But there’s a problem: she’s not the only Curran in the race. There is also a Frances Curran who is standing for the Scottish Socialist Party. Just to compound the problem for Labour, Frances’s name will appear ahead of Margaret’s on the ballot paper. If this by-election turns out to be a close run affair, the votes lost to Labour by this confusion could cost it the seat; The Times reports that at the last Scottish Parliament election there were an above average number of spoilt ballot papers in part of the constituency.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

How McCain can trump Obama’s convention address and change the course of the presidential race

On TV today, John McCain joked that the only way he could trump Barack Obama’s plan to deliver his acceptance speech not in the hall at the Democratic convention but at a 70,000 seat football stadium would be to parachute into the Republican convention in Minneapolis-St Paul. But there is something else he could do: hold a town-hall meeting with un-decided voters in Minneapolis-St Paul rather than deliver a conventional convention address. McCain can not hope to compete with Obama as a set-piece orator so he shouldn’t try. Instead, the McCain campaign should use the hours of prime-time coverage across all the networks to show voters their candidate in his best setting, the town-hall meeting.

James Forsyth

Why Israel probably won’t bomb Iran during the transition

There is a lot of chatter at the moment about the idea that Israel might use the gap between the US elections in November and the inauguration of a new president in January to strike a blow against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But as Bob Kaplan points out there is a good reason to think this probably won’t happen: There is a problem, though. Violating, say, Jordanian or Turkish airspace is not really the issue. The issue is that largely because of the on-going Iraq war, the U. S. controls the airspace over the entry points to Iran: in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf. Thus, an Israeli attack on Iran could probably only happen with U. S. connivance. And even if Israel could evade American sensors, few would believe that it honestly did so.

James Forsyth

Did they vet the wrong Ray Lewis?

There is a quite remarkable item in Londoner’s Diary today: RUMOUR reaches the Londoner that the reason Boris Johnson's office failed to pick up on the fact former Deputy Mayor Ray Lewis was not a Justice of the Peace is that it conducted a background check on a different Ray Lewis who is a Justice of the Peace in East London. The former deputy mayor for young people, Ray Lewis, gave the Mayor the impression he was a Justice of the Peace, a fact which the Mayor highlighted at his press conference last Thursday. The next day the Ministry of Justice said "he is not and has never been a magistrate". It subsequently transpired that the deputy mayor had been recommendedfor appointment as a JP and the appointment was still waiting to be ratified.

James Forsyth

Brogan: Brown should not beware Glasgow East but September

Over on his blog, Ben Brogan dissents from the conventional Westminster wisdom that Glasgow East is make or break for Brown, arguing that the polls post-conference will be more important: But even if Labour do lose - and I don't think they will (gulp) - I'm not so sure it will trigger the kind of armaggedon folk are predicting. For why? Because things are bad enough already. A wild result in a Scottish seat is unlikely to tell us something we don't already know: Gordon Brown is in trouble everywhere, even at home. But Scottish politics is different and the SNP are not the Tories. Labour MPs, those that haven't already disappeared on holiday, may just shrug.

James Forsyth

A plurality of Muslims under 35 support there being areas of the UK where some elements of sharia law are introduced

A friend of Coffee House is in touch to point out that the numbers from the ICM poll for Peter Oborne’s Dispatches programme last night, show that a plurality of Muslims under 35 are in favour of there being some parts of the UK where elements of Sharia are introduced. Here are the numbers: "Would you support or oppose there being areas of Britain in which some element of Sharia Law is introduced?

James Forsyth

Minister, you have six seconds to make your case

Skimming the interview with David Blunkett in G2 on the Tube on the way home last night, this grabbed my attention: "In my time in politics, the soundbite on television has fallen from 25 seconds to six." When you think about it, this does chime with the difference between TV news reports from the ‘80s and now. It certainly make you realise just how much a well crafted political message has to pack into a few words. PS Fraser is up in Glasgow East today, so check back later on for his report on what is going on up there.

James Forsyth

Addressing the social question

The Daily Mirror launches a predictable attack on David Cameron today, claiming that in his Glasgow speech yesterday he blamed the poor, the unemployed and the fat for their own problems and that “he has gone from hug-a-hoodie to kick-a-granny.” The rest of the press reaction, though, is fairly positive. Cameron is playing for big stakes. If he can persuade the electorate both of his analysis about society’s problems and that he can help people do something about them, then the electoral reward will be huge. As Rachel Sylvester argues in her Times column today, the social question is moving centre stage in politics. It is certainly telling that “grim” was the word used most frequently by focus group members during the London Mayoral election.

Monday

James Forsyth

The Tory lead is down but this poll might encourage Labour MPs to move against Brown

Normally the news that the Tories had fallen and Labour had gained in the polls would be met with cheers in the Brown bunker but the latest Populus poll might actually hasten the Prime Minister’s exit. The poll shows that opinion has hardened against him and that at least some of the Tory’s new-found support is soft. The implication will not be lost on Labour MP in marginal seats: if they change leader they might just have a chance. Brown’s personal numbers are, as Peter Riddell notes, incredibly bad. Only 25 percent of those polled think Brown is up to the job of being PM. Three fifths of those who voted Labour at the last general election think Brown is a loser with that fraction rising to three-quarters among the public as a whole.

James Forsyth

Obama’s most significant advantage

What should keep the McCain campaign up at night is not Obama’s financial advantage or even his poll lead but his ability to command the news agenda almost at will. Two events in recent days have underlined what a potent tool this is going to be for Obama between now and November. First, there is Obama’s coming tour of Europe and the Middle East. McCain has been on a couple of foreign tours and drawn some decent coverage. But now the Obama campaign is thinking about having their candidate deliver a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate, the same place where Ronald Reagan delivered his justly famous ‘tear down this wall’ speech. The attention that this will receive will be off the charts and Obama will be able to parlay it to his political advantage.

James Forsyth

Cameron has immunised himself from attacks on his morality matters approach

Conservative Home is worrying about how the press might report Cameron’s Glasgow speech, fearful that it might be presented as a ‘nasty party’ attack. But to my mind, the Tories don’t need to worry: this dog won’t hunt. First of all, Cameron has detoxified the Tory brand enough and spent so long portraying himself as a contemporary man that trying to paint him as some social authoritarian eager to take Britain back to Victorian times just won’t work. For this type of character attack to wound they have to chime with what people think about a politician. In this case, they will fall as flat as attempts to portray Boris as a racist did.

James Forsyth

A moral policy

One of the most frequent conversations that Fraser and I have is about whether politicians can change the moral weather. Fraser thinks they can’t, I think they can. If you agree with me, then David Cameron’s speech today in Glasgow is one of the most important of his leadership to date. Here is the key section of it: "We as a society have been far too sensitive. In order to avoid injury to people's feelings, in order to avoid appearing judgemental, we have failed to say what needs to be said. We have seen a decades-long erosion of responsibility, of social virtue, of self-discipline, respect for others, deferring gratification instead of instant gratification.

James Forsyth

Talking about Islamophobia

Peter Oborne’s Dispatches programme about Islamophobia in Britain is already making waves. (To get a sense of Peter’s argument, read this piece he did for the Mail). Peter is undoubtedly right that the press sometime do report rumours and urban myths about Muslims as fact which can contribute to a disturbing, anti-Muslim atmosphere. He is also right that if this country treats its Muslim citizens poorly it makes them more likely to become disaffected and fall prey to extremist recruiters. But where I think Peter goes off course is when he appears to suggest that criticism of the Islamic faith is equivalent to—or as worrying as—criticism of Muslims.

James Forsyth

Get Carter (Episode 25)

I’m not sure how to describe on a family-friendly blog what people in the know say the mood in Downing Street is like. But Sam Coates has a great example of just how bitter things are over there and how tense relations are between Jeremy Heywood, permanent secretary at Number Ten, and Stephen Carter: On Friday morning, it escalated. There were sore heads all round after the expenses debacle - where was Gordon at the time of the vote? what were those meetings? - and all 200 staff gathered in Downing Street, where they were addressed by Mr Heywood. According to one witness, he began by saying: "I had hoped Stephen Carter could be here this morning, but he has got tickets to the semi finals at Wimbledon.

James Forsyth

An unhealthy approach to policy

To many in conservative circles, the less said about Tory health policy the better. The Tories have seemingly decided that the best they can do is neutralise the issue politically and so have shied away from doing anything other than trying to win over the British Medical Association. To be fair, this strategy has worked tactically: the Tories are now more trusted than Labour with the NHS, denying Labour of one of its traditional sources of electoral strength. However, it also means that the Tories are, to some extent, to the left of Labour on health as Janet Daley argues in the Telegraph today. (As for the BMA, do read Stephen’s brilliant dissection of its self-interested attitudes in The Times today).

James Forsyth

Glasgow East moves centre stage

The Glasgow-East by-election is going to dominate the news for the next few weeks. The Westminster Village has concluded that if Labour can’t hold its 25th safest seat under Gordon Brown then the Labour party will move to get rid of him. Although, The Guardian reports this morning that one cabinet member believes that Brown should be given one final chance after a possible defeat to try and connect, suggesting that there would be no challenge until late autumn.    In a sign of Labour discipline having broken down almost completely, tensions about the running of the campaign have already spilled into the press. The Telegraph reveals that there is concern in Labour circles that Harriet Harman might try and run the campaign from London.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Magnificent

I’m not much of a tennis fan but even I was gripped by the men’s final. Every time you thought it was going to end, the player on the brink of defeat seemed to find another gear. Astonishingly, despite how long the match went on—it was the longest final in the tournament’s history—the quality of play never dropped. After this final and Euro 2008, the rest of the sporting summer has a lot to live up to. PS I do, though, have to agree with Clive’s gripe about the commentary.

James Forsyth

Look at who else he is talking to

There’s plenty to read between the lines in The Sunday Times interview with Tony Blair. This aside from Blair is particularly interesting:   “One thing you could say about me,” he says with a shrug, “is that I have no problem moving on.” And then as an afterthought: “I still talk to David and to Gordon.” Gordon? “Oh yes.” Rather infuriatingly, it is not specified which David Blair is referring to. But whether it is Cameron or Miliband it is bound to raise the Brownites’ blood pressure that David comes first in the sentence. On the surface, Blair is loyal to his successor but there appear to be some comparisons being made.