James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

The Clinton factor

From our UK edition

Day two and again what the press want to talk about is the Clintons.  Tonight Hillary speaks and, to be fair, she is damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t. If she takes it to John McCain, the pundits will say look what the Democrats are missing. But if she talks more about her primary campaign and Obama, she’ll be accused of pulling her punches. The word is that she will indeed go after McCain hard, something that the Democrats failed to do in prime time last night. The problem is that the keynote former Virginia Governor Mark Warner is not a red-meat speaker so he’ll likely not hit McCain hard. The contrast will set off chatter about how the Clintons are the only Democrats who know how to play hardball.

Michelle Obama’s speech was cautious but effective

From our UK edition

Michelle Obama played it safe tonight. Gone was the sassy campaigner I remember seeing in Iowa and South Carolina. The aim of the speech was to introduce Michelle Obama to the public and to dispel the idea of her as an angry, divisive figure. On that score, it worked. Michelle Obama sounded both humble and proud of her country—the opposite of how her critics portray her. By talking about her father, she was able to emphasise his commitment to work and self-reliance, one of the key American values. Describing how he coped with MS, she said simply that he “woke up a little earlier and worked a little harder.” Her main theme was how Barack’s desire to see the world as it should be not as it is was what attracted her to him.

Rooting Obama in the American middle class

From our UK edition

Tonight’s message is going to be all about Obama and the economy. The Democrats want to paint Obama as a tribune of the middle class and as a member of it; they want to reduce the sense of otherness about him, what Mark Penn called his ‘lack of American roots.’  This is a crucial task, if they can’t do this then you have to expect the undecideds to break heavily for McCain which given the current closeness of the race would be enough to put him in the White House. In the security queue we got talking to one of tonight’s featured speakers, Tom Balanoff, a Union official from Chicago who is getting a few minutes in cable primetime to describe Obama’s community work there.

Can the Democrats unify?

From our UK edition

The Democrats want to achieve five things this week here in Denver: 1). Unify the party 2). Persuade voters that Obama is ready to be president 3). Tie McCain to Bush 4). Hone an economic message 5). Show swing voters that Obama is ‘one of us’ There is, therefore, intense irritation that this morning the story dominating the news is about tensions between the Clinton and Obama camps. The spark for this is that Bill Clinton, who seems much less reconciled to defeat than Hillary is, is unhappy about being asked to speak on Wednesday night about national security. Instead, he apparently wants to speak about the economy contrasting the prosperity of the Clinton years to the current economic troubles.

Don’t mention the ideology

From our UK edition

Alasdair Palmer has a piece that is well worth reading in the Sunday Telegraph about the leaked MI5 report on what turns people into terrorists. Here’ the key section of his argument: “It conspicuously fails to mention the potential terrorist's most obvious "vulnerability": adherence to an extremist form of radical Islamism. It stresses that "far from being religious zealots, a large number of those involved in terrorism do not practice their faith regularly; many lack religious literacy and could be regarded as religious novices.

Another huge Tory poll lead

From our UK edition

John Rentoul reveals that The Independent on Sunday’s latest poll, conducted by ComRes, shows another 21 point Tory lead. The Tories are on 46, Labour on 25 and the Lib Dems 16. Interestingly, among likely voters 38 percent think of themselves as generally speaking Conservatives, 30 percent Labour and 14 percent Lib Dems implying that Brown is acting as at least something of a drag on Labour’s numbers.

Obama has picked a Cheney when he needed a Gore

From our UK edition

In a peacetime election, Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden would make perfect sense. Biden is a national security heavyweight and his presence on the ticket would reassure voters than an Obama administration would be up to speed on foreign policy rather as Cheney did for Bush in 2000. But with America still engaged in two wars, the pick is risky. The Republicans are already pushing the message that America can’t have a president at time of war who needs his hand holding during a crisis. Selecting Biden also denies Obama one of his strongest possible lines in the debates. When McCain raises the question of Obama’s readiness to lead, Obama could have shot back saying: ‘I got Iraq right, you didn’t.

Obama-Biden ’08–just the ticket? 

From our UK edition

Has Obama just blinked? His selection of Joe Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as a running mate appears to be a recognition that he needs someone with national security experience on the ticket. This provides an opening for the McCain campaign. It also complicates Obama’s argument that national security is all about judgement. Just to compound thing, Obama and Biden made different judgement calls on Iraq back in 2002. The smart sides to the pick are more on the domestic and personal side. Domestically, Biden is a champion of the kind of downscale voters that Obama desperately needs to woo to his side. Also by picking someone who blundered badly in talking about race in the primaries, Obama has shown that he has no desire to get hung up on this stuff.

Sloganeering

From our UK edition

If there is a Labour leadership election, the candidates are going to need slogans and in an actual contest they’ll need something that draws a contrast. (With no opponent, Brown could run under the banner, ‘Gordon Brown for Britain.’) Thinking about what slogans, the various possible candidates might use does give you an idea of what they’re trying to sell. In Miliband’s case youth and a bit of excitement about Labour again, for Johnson an ability to unite the party and ease the dislike that the public feel towards the government while Jack Straw wants to emphasise his ability to steady the ship.

Playing house

From our UK edition

It all kicks off after McCain gives the worst possible answer to the question of how many houses he and his wife own: "I think — I'll have my staff get to you". (Video of Obama's ad and McCain's response after the jump) For a lot of candidates, this would be an election ending blunder. But McCain went through an ordeal a lot more traumatic than having your house repossessed in the Hanoi Hilton, a couple of his own children serve in the military meaning that you can’t paint the McCains as part of the idle or out of touch rich and Obama’s own housing issue complicates the Democrat’s line of attack so the gaffe isn’t fatal for McCain.

VP watch: Buy Bayh

From our UK edition

Time Magazine: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a Vice President. What is that decision going to tell voters about you? Barack Obama: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions, I get a lot of input from a lot of people and that, ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done and who are not about ego, self-aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but are focused on what's best for the American people. I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I'm not a believer in a government of yes-men.

The Tories have their biggest ever lead, Labour at record low

From our UK edition

The 24 point lead the Tories have in this month’s Ipsos/Mori political monitor is their largest since the survey began after the 1979 election. The 48 percent they scored is the highest they have ever been in opposition and their best performance since January 1988 when they were at 50 percent—their highest ever score.  By contrast, Labour’s 24 percent is its worst ever performance in the monthly survey. For those interested in comparing how the Tories are doing compared to New Labour in opposition, in 1995 Blair’s Labour party was consistently scoring in the mid to high fifties. But in every election apart from 1987, Labour has underperformed its poll ratings.

Brown still doesn’t know how to respond to the Miliband article

From our UK edition

After David Miliband wrote his infamous Guardian article, the Brownites had two options. Either they could welcome it as important contribution to the debate and try and laugh off the idea that it was the beginning of a leadership challenge or they could go on the attack, painting Miliband as disloyal and try to force him to back down. The Brownites, though, attempted a mix of the two strategies when they are mutually exclusive. Things have now gone too far because of both the initial briefing against Miliband in the Evening Standard and his appearance on the Jeremy Vine show for the hug him close approach to work.

Who does the PM side with in the Brown-Miliband dispute?

From our UK edition

The Conservatives have jumped on the confusion in the government’s foreign policy revealed by Nick Brown’s outburst on Comment is Freee (see Fraser’s post), with William Hague asking the Prime Minister to clarify who speaks for the government on foreign policy—the Foreign Secretary or the Deputy Chief Whip?  Gordon Brown has to get a grip. He needs to tell his attacks dogs—who are by all accounts straining at the leash—that foreign policy is off limits. British foreign policy can’t be turned into a battleground for the Labour party’s factional fighting.

Hillary’s brother meets with McCains victory chair

From our UK edition

This’ll set tongues wagging: Hillary Clinton’s younger brother met with Carly Fiorina, the chair of the Republican party’s Victory 2008 committee, at a private gathering in Pennsylvania. The event was hosted by the national director of the Citizens for McCain coalition. In the grand scheme of things this isn’t that important, but it re-injects the Clintons into the story at a time that Barack Obama is perceived to be struggling. (The story is, predictably, going crazy on the internet). Although Obama still leads in most polls his advantage is a narrow one, one poll today even has McCain up by five, and there are a few grumblings out there about his performance.

Musharraf’s missed opportunity

From our UK edition

Reihan Salam, a Spectator contributor, has a good piece at The Atlantic. In it, he conducts a thought experiment that is worth reflecting on: “It’s worth wondering what might have happened had Musharraf taken a different path. During a landmark speech in January 2002, Musharraf essentially declared war on the Islamic extremists who’d been hollowing out the Pakistani state from within. Popular support for the government - and for the government’s decision to side with the United States - was extremely high. The United States and its allies had offered a generous aid package, and the Islamists were at their weakest.

The things they spend our money on

From our UK edition

The Daily Mail flags up this bizarre response from Downing Street to the petition calling for Jeremy Clarkson to be made PM. At the risk of sounding like an old curmudgeon, is this really an appropriate use of taxpayers’ money?

Georgia sheds light on the mind of Cameron

From our UK edition

The final phase of preparing the country for Prime Minister Cameron is under way. Having decontaminated the brand and marched ahead of Labour in the polls, the Tories are now introducing the country to Statesman Cameron. Politics abhors a vacuum. So with Gordon Brown hunkered down planning his autumn ‘relaunch’ and David Miliband practising looking like an innocent flower while being the serpent underneath, Cameron had the opportunity to act the statesman during the Georgia crisis. He did so, even going to Tbilisi to convey Britain’s solidarity with Georgia. As one top Tory purred to me, ‘He’s combined the toughness of a Thatcher, with the tactical acumen of a Blair.

Could the pro-choice McCain VP candidate be Meg Whitman?

From our UK edition

There is still buzz that the McCain campaign is seeing if the Republican Party can be reconciled to a pro-choice running mate. It seems unlikely that they would carry on doing this if they weren't actually thinking seriously about having one, even if they don't pick one there is a risk that the mere talk of it alienates social conservatives and there is also a risk of appearing to have blinked in a confronation with the right of the party. All the speculation about a pro-choice VP pick has centered on Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman.