James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The politics of the crisis

Westminster is convinced that Gordon Brown is the political beneficiary, at least in the short-term, of the current financial turmoil. Brown looks more energised and confident than he has in a long time, the rebellion within the Labour party has been quashed, and the Tories are in a bind. They have to be supportive of the government lest they be accused of playing politics with the situation but this leaves them looking like they have no ideas of their own as David Cameron found to his cost at PMQs. But the Populus poll in today’s Times, obviously taken before today’s bail-out, suggests that there is less of a Brown bounce than you might expect. The poll finds the Tories on 45 percent, 15 points ahead of Labour.

James Forsyth

Mortgaged futures

Today’s WSJ reports that almost one in six US homeowners now owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. 16 percent now do so compared to 4 percent in 2006. Among those who purchased their residence in the last five years, the figure rises to 29 percent. One wonders what the equivalent UK figures will look like by the turn of the year.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Tonight has to be the night McCain begins to turn this round

The polling news for the McCain campaign right now is grim. Yesterday, two polls in Virginia had Obama over 50 percent and ahead by double-digits; McCain pretty much has to win the Old Dominion to get to 270. Nearly all the toss-up states are now leaning to Obama, while states where McCain had a mild but significant edge are now becoming toss-ups. McCain has to change the game. McCain’s last best chance to do so is tonight’s debate. It is a town-hall meeting, which suits McCain, and being on stage with Obama for an hour and a half he has a chance to force Obama into a major error. McCain needs a moment that will come to redefine the race. At the moment, the economic news is so serious that it is hard for McCain to make much headway.

James Forsyth

All tactics, no strategy

As Matt notes, there is now a truce in the Labour party; the reshuffle has earned Brown the right to die another day. When you look at the reshuffle it becomes clear that Brown has appeased every faction in the Labour party: the Blairites get Mandelson back and McBride moved upstairs, Compass get Jon Trickett as Brown’s PPS, the Unions get Adonis moved from education and Gordon Brown himself gets a Whip office staffed by his praetorians. But it still remains totally unclear what Gordon plans to do next. Brown’s lack of direction and decision can be seen in the fact that apart from him there now appear to be three people running economic policy.

Monday

James Forsyth

When did Mandelson change his mind about Brown?

I don’t think anyone disputes that Mandelson used to not have a very high opinion of Brown’s premiership. As Danny blogged on Sunday, the Corfu story was in circulation before Mandelson’s shock return but not considered particularly surprising by anybody. But if Kevin Maguire is to be believed, Mandelson was still sticking the knife into Brown only ten days before returning to the Cabinet: “I heard an intriguing tale during Labour's conference in Manchester. After Brown's acclaimed speech a TV crew asked Mandy for a comment. The then Euro Commissioner continued walking straight ahead, lips sealed. About an hour later Mandy bumped into the same crew. "Did you get what you want?" he asked. The sneer was clear - Mandy didn't think much of Brown's speech.

James Forsyth

‘Emergency Labour’

Jackie Ashley coins the telling phrase ‘Emergency Labour’ to describe the party post-Mandelson’s return.  Looking at the reshuffle as a whole one is struck by how little ideological direction there is to it. It does not mark, whatever the headline appearances might suggest, a return to Blairism. Yes, Mandelson is back but at the same time Lord Adonis—the man who was doing more to push forward public service reform than anyone else in the government—has been moved out of his role. Indeed, Brown’s strategy appears to be to rely on the public believing that only he and his team of ‘serious people’ can see the country through the financial crisis.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Obama will determine the potency of the novice line

‘This is no time for a novice’ was undoubtedly the line of the conference season. It is the one that people will remember six months from now. But the effectiveness of it will to a significant extent depend on events outside of Brown or Cameron’s control. It looks as if the US presidential race is breaking decisively in Barack Obama’s favour. Obama’s lead in the polling averages is now the largest it has been since June and his numbers are trending upwards. Obama and Cameron’s levels of experience are roughly comparable and so his election will become a test of whether novices can lead in these troubled times.

James Forsyth

How can a borough where half the children live in poverty justify paying its chief executive £240,000 a year?

So frequently does one hear of public money being wasted that it is all too easy to become inured to it. But the Sunday Telegraph’s revelation that the head of Newham council, Joe Duckworth, is paid £240,000 a year should be enough to shock anyone out of their complacency about waste. It is quite simply immoral that in a borough where half the children live in poverty, council tax money is being used to pay for such a grossly inflated salary.  The idea that £240,000 is the market rate for this job is risible. First of all, as the Telegraph points out, the Audit Commission found that the quality rating of the Isle of Wight council did not improve during Duckworth’s tenure. Second, the Prime Minister is paid more than £50,000 less than Mr Duckworth.

Saturday

James Forsyth

McCain has to shake the race up

Sarah Plain survived the VP debate on Thursday night but the trajectory of the race still favours Obama-Biden. If things continue as they are, they will win in something approaching a landslide on November fourth. Over the last few weeks, Obama has built a sizable national poll lead, the polling average puts him 5.7 percent ahead, and moved into a lead in most of the key battleground states. McCain needs a game-changer. As one McCain aide told the Washington Post, “There's no question that we have to change the subject here". McCain’s next best chance to change the dynamics of this race comes on Tuesday in the second presidential debate.

James Forsyth

The truth about Peronigate

After the Labour conference in Manchester, Iain Martin wrote a very funny post imagining how the whole Ruth Kelly 3am resignation might have leaked out because the Peroni in the bar run out. As with all the best satires, it was the element of truth in it that made it so funny: there was an awful lot of Peroni drunk in Manchester that week and a lot of information was exchanged in hotel bars.  The joke, though, gained a life of its own. A lot of people thought it was true—one Labour figure told me, in all earnestness, that it summed up everything that was wrong with the Brown operation. It added to the pressure on Brown to reform his Downing Street operation, a reform which this week has seen Damian McBride moved away from his frontline briefing duties.

James Forsyth

Preventing a stab in the back narrative

One of the things that has most worried the Blairites in recent weeks was that in 2010 they would be blamed for Labour’s loss. Their fear was that the party would lurch to the left, burying New Labour, as a left-wing challenger blamed them for the factionalism and in-fighting of the last few years. The return of Peter Mandelson to the Cabinet is, among many other things, an attempt to prevent this scenario from coming to pass. It is a very public statement that the Blairites will do everything they can to get Labour re-elected. As Peter Oborne notes, this position has been rather forced on them. After David Miliband’s poor few days in Manchester it was clear that there was no Blairitie alternative to Gordon.

Friday

James Forsyth

The temptation the Tories must resist

Just hours after Mandelson’s return had been reported, the Tories blasted out a document full of cutting remarks Mandelson had made about Brown. It was an impressively comprehensive list—there’s a lot of material to cover—but the Tories should cease and desist from this line of attack. In his press conference, Brown was spinning the past disagreements between the two men to his advantage. Tony Blair used to say that if World War Three broke out Peter Mandelson would be the first person he would call, Brown’s message was that economic war has broken out and the situation is too serious for him to let the past differences between Brown and Mandelson get in the way of bringing him back into government.

James Forsyth

Some people are sharpening–not burying–their hatchets

Kevin Maguire’s post earlier today showed that some Brownites are not happy about the return of that arch-Blairite Mandelson. Benjamin Wegg-Proser’s demonstrates that some Blairities can’t resist the chance to goad the Brownites. This comment from Wegg-Prosser is not going to encourage détente between the camp followers of the two factions: “Gordon Brown’s acolytes have held no-one in greater contempt than Peter, their reaction to this news, as with most things that they say to the press, is probably unprintable. Whether he can turn things around for Gordon Brown is another matter. He certainly will not be able to do it single-handedly.

James Forsyth

Quote of the day | 3 October 2008

Comment Central has asked various Times contributors if bringing back Peter Mandelson is a masterstroke or a mistake. Matthew Parris’s answer to the question is so good it deserves to be quoted in full: "The masterstroke may come from Mr Mandelson himself, but later. As for the PM's possible mistake, is it a mistake for a man losing his footing to grab at a spikey cactus for support?

James Forsyth

The Mandelson backlash

Bringing back Peter Mandelson and sidelining Damian McBride has not gone down well with some of the more hard-core Brownites. Kevin Maguire savages the Mandelson appointment, arguing that it makes Brown look weak, weak, weak: If Gordon Brown hopes people have forgotten who Peter Mandelson was he will be badly mistaken. Both will hate the ridicule coming their way. To turn to a figure who personified a lack of trust in politicians is a grave error. Should we start placing bets on Lord Mandy's third Cabinet resignation? What other surprises has Brown up his sleeve? John Prescott as Deputy PM? Denis Healey as Chancellor? Neil Kinnock's still around. And what about Tony Blair coming back as, erm, Prime Minister?

James Forsyth

The Tories need a top-quality politician to shadow Ed Miliband

Gordon Brown’s decision to create a new department of Energy and Climate Change and place one of his most talented protégés in charge of it is a sign that Labour plan to make a major push on the issue. This should worry the Tories. Tory energy policy is far too woolly at the moment; the party has still has not decided where it stands on nuclear power. Alan Duncan, for all his energy expertise, has not provided the intellectual leadership that the Tories desperately need on the issue. There will be a temptation for the Tories just to move up one of the shadow DEFRA or BERR team into this new role. That would be a mistake—none of them have the political skills needed for this new role.

James Forsyth

Does Gordon Brown remember the fable of the Scorpion and the Frog?

Just in case he doesn't, here is a reminder for him: "Hellooo Mr. Frog!" called the scorpion across the water, "Would you be so kind as to give me a ride on your back across the river?" "Well now, Mr. Scorpion! How do I know that if I try to help you, you wont try to kill me?" asked the frog hesitantly. "Because," the scorpion replied, "If I try to kill you, then I would die too, for you see I cannot swim!" Now this seemed to make sense to the frog. But he asked. "What about when I get close to the bank? You could still try to kill me and get back to the shore!" "This is true," agreed the scorpion, "But then I wouldn't be able to get to the other side of the river!" "Alright then...how do I know you wont just wait till we get to the other side and THEN kill me?

James Forsyth

The return of Mandelson shows that Brown knows just how deep a hole he is in

Well, who thought that Brown had it in him? The return of Peter Mandelson to the Cabinet is the kind of bold move that Brown has seemed incapable of making since becoming Prime Minister. It, along with the apparent departure of Damian McBride, sends out a message that Brown is going to try and rise above Labour factionalism. The appointment of Nick Brown as Chief Whip looks very different when seen through this prism.

James Forsyth

Palin makes it through the night

The insta-polls are scoring the VP debate to Joe Biden but theMcCain campaign will be mighty relieved that Palin got through the evening without making any major gaffes. The question now is can Palin proceed to regain control of her public initiative and get back to being an asset for the Republican ticket.