James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Election timing

One of the overlooked elements of the PBR was the Chancellor’s assertion that Britain would be out of recession by the third quarter of 2009. This offered a metric against which the PBR and the other measures Labour have taken can be judged; if the country is still in recession then it will be reasonable to say that they have failed. This is one of the reasons why some Tories expect Brown to go in 2009. Andrew Grice sums up the early election speculation in the Independent today: “Privately, Tories fret about a mid-recession 2009 election, with the Prime Minister seeking a "doctor's mandate" to complete the patient's recovery. Their fears have been enhanced by a slimline Queen's Speech this week, which gave the impression of a party preparing for an election.

The police and politics don’t mix

Sam Coates makes a telling point over at his blog: “The Crown Prosecution Service, who decided it could not bring charges, has torn up electoral law in the process. They have decided Peter Hain was not legally responsible for over £100,000 of late donations because he wasn't the signatory on the campaign accounts. This has come as a surprise to the Electoral Commission, who thought that as candidate he was the "regulated donee" and therefore should take the rap. So the much hated 2000 donations laws are now officially a complete mess, with the watchdog and police working by completely different rules. That wont sort itself out in a hurry. But once again we had interviews under caution, and police sources saying "that the file provided a compelling case". Then nothing.

How could Brown shuffle Hain back in?

There is a fascinating little dance going on between Peter Hain and Brown Central. As soon as the CPS decided they weren’t going to charge him, Hain was telling Sky News that "I only left government to clear this up, and would like to return, but that is a matter for the Prime Minister." Brown repaid the compliment with his political spokesman saying, “We obviously welcome the fact that Peter Hain has been cleared in this matter. Peter has been a great servant of the Labour party and has much to offer in the future.” Now, you could see this as merely an exchange of pleasantries. But as Andrew Sparrow notes Brown’s comments are sufficiently warm to imply that he will bring Hain back in some capacity or other.

A return for David Davis looks increasingly likely

At the moment, David Davis would probably rather be arrested than return to the shadow cabinet. But the prospect of Davis being asked to come back to the top table looks more likely now than at any point since his spectacular resignation in June. Davis could well be back in his old job after a reshuffle in the New Year. The Damian Green affair has reminded the Tory leadership how much they miss someone with Davis’ hunting skills. Dominic Grieve was impressive in the Commons yesterday but he has failed to cut through in the media. He was outperformed on Newsnight the other night by Chris Huhne which is rather like being the second tallest mountain in Holland. He also seems to lack Davis’ instinct for where the government might be most vulnerable.

The Tories must remember Mandelson is mortal

It is hard to disagree with Martin Kettle’s assertion that Peter Mandelson is the “most interesting” figure in British politics right now. Since his return from Brussels, Mandelson has had a key role to play in every major political story and has revelled in the quite extraordinary amount of coverage he has received. As Kettle—who interviewed Mandelson for an hour or so at Saturday’s Progress conference—notes, Mandelson is now a far more intellectually confident figure than he was in 1997. Much of Mandelson’s success has stemmed from the fact that the Tories are so intimidated by him; they talk about him in hushed tones. They are convinced that everything Mandelson does must have some hidden genius to it.

Gordon gets his headline but the devil is in the detail

Holding up the front pages on Newsnight last night, Jeremy Paxman observed that Brown couldn’t have got better coverage for his mortgage package if he’d paid for it. But as always with one of Gordon’s initiatives, a look at the small print reveals it to be not quite such a good deal after all. Both Tim Worstall and Dizzy point out huge flaws in it. It does seem that this was done on the fly to catch out the Tories.

Washington or Whitehall whispers?

As Matt reflected just after Obama’s election win, both David Cameron and Gordon Brown desperately want to be and be seen to be Barack Obama’s best friend. There’s a bit of a blow to the Cameron campaign today with a New Statesman story about how Obama branded Cameron a ‘lightweight’. But a close read of it suggests that the sources for this claim might be in Whitehall not Washington: “Instead, I have been told, Obama exclaimed of Cameron after their meeting: "What a lightweight!" He apparently also asked officials about Tory Euroscepticism. Soon, word about the rather awkward encounter between the two self-professed candidates of change made its way quietly round the upper echelons of Whitehall.

The Serjeant at Arms has to go

It is hard to see how anyone can have confidence in the Serjeant at Arms. It is incredible that having been warned that an MP might be arrested and that the police might search a Commons office, she did not think to check what the rules and precedents surrounding this were. This is nothing less than a dereliction of duty on her part. Some on the left are trying to claim that she is a victim of sexism and maybe some of her critics are sexists, but it is hard to see how anyone can think that she has performed her duties competently. It was telling that Harriet Harman—who no one could accuse of being a misogynist—was not prepared to say she had full confidence in the Serjeant at Arms and the Speaker when asked this repeatedly by Jeremy Paxman.

Speaker’s ‘regret’ leaves Brown isolated

Michael Martin came close to apologising to the House when he said that he “regrets” that police entered Parliament and searched Damian Green’s office without a warrant. Tory grandees including Michael Howard and Iain Duncan Smith pressed the Prime Minister on whether he too regretted that all this had happened without a warrant. Brown was left looking rather lonely as he repeated his pre-packaged line that he respects the police’s operational independence. It’ll be interesting to see if Jacqui Smith will go further than this when she addresses the Commons tomorrow.

What Mandelson is up to

Over at Three Line Whip, Jame Kirkup muses whether Peter Mandelson has taken a vow never to give a dull interview. Certainly, from a hack’s point of view, Mandelson makes for great copy. But it is Mandelson who is getting the most out of this relationship at the moment. I suspect that Mandelson realised he was going to be covered in exhaustive detail on his return whether he liked it or not. His skill has been to turn this coverage to his advantage by using the press’s fascination with him to get his message across.

The political backdrop to the Mumbai attacks

For any CoffeeHouser trying to understand the relationship between Lashkar-e-Taiba—the group that are believed to have been responsible for the Mumbia atrocities—and the Pakistani government, I’d thoroughly recommend Steve Coll’s post over at The New Yorker. This section seems to sum it up: “On the one hand, the group’s bank accounts remain unmolested by the Pakistani government, which gives Lashkar quite a lot of running room; on the other, the group resents the accommodations reached between Pakistan’s government and the United States. Clearly, Lashkar knows what it must do to protect the Pakistan government from being exposed in the violent operations that Lashkar runs in Kashmir and elsewhere.

The cheek of it

In the weeks since the Labour conference in Manchester, it has been clear that James Purnell has overtaken David Miliband as the leading contender among the Primrose Hill Set. Even though he is considerably more Blairite than Miliband, Purnell is attracting a wider range of support across the party because of his ability to put the Blairite agenda into left-wing language. Indeed, I suspect that if Labour do lose the next election, the ensuing leadership contest will come down to Purnell and Jon Cruddas. Purnell is now confident enough to indulge in a bit of tweaking of Gordon’s tale.

The other responsibility to protect

The Pakistan problem is one of the thorniest in international politics. It is almost impossible to see how you deal with a nuclear armed failing state whose government claims, with some justification, that it can’t control its military, intelligence service and all of its territory. But as Bob Kagan writes in the Washington Post today: "...nations should not be able to claim sovereign rights when they cannot control territory from which terrorist attacks are launched.

A statistic that shames Britain

Camila Batmanghelidjh's op-ed in The Times today contains a truly shocking fact: The truth, based on research by Kids Company and London University, is that one in five children in deprived inner cities is surviving neglect and abuse.

ComRes has Labour within one point of the Tories

The consensus  in Westminster is that the Tories are back on the front foot following the PBR and the Damian Green arrest, but a ComRes poll in the Independent (reported on by Political Betting) has Labour closing the gap to one point. This is drastically at odds with the other polls that have come out since the PBR which have shown increased Tory leads. It is even more surprising when you consider that ComRes's last poll has the Tories ahead by 11 points.  I’m tempted to dismiss it as a rogue poll but I’ll defer to the judgement of Anthony Wells who has yet to weigh in.

The new crew

Elections have consequences as John McCain likes to say. So it would be unrealistic of us hawks to expect the president-elect to appoint the kind of national security team that John McCain would have. But from a hawkish perspective, the team unveiled in Chicago this morning is about as good as it gets. Hillary Clinton is one of the soundest Democrats on foreign policy; we can be confident that she will be an advocate for a robust line on Iran. Robert Gates was not an initial supporter of the surge but as defence secretary he has shown an appreciation for what it has achieved. His retention suggests that Obama is not planning any dramatic departure from current Iraq policy which is a relief given his irresponsible rhetoric during the primaries.

Chris Galley to speak at 4.30

The Guardian is reporting that the civil servant involved in the Damian Green leak furore will hold a press conference at 4.30. We'll obviously have more coverage here on Coffee House once he's spoken.

Labour’s leaky position

There are few finer columnists than Martin Bright and his volley at the Progress conference on Labour ministers’ reaction to the arrest of Damian Green hit upon an important point: “It is important to debate the end of ideology. But what about the end of principle? I was told I had five minutes for introductory comments, which is always too much on these occasions, but all that really needs to be said is two words: Damian Green. What a disgrace this incident has been. To hear Labour Cabinet ministers who happily fed journalists leaked information during their years in opposition defending the 'independent operational action' of the police is quite staggering.