James Forsyth

I suspect that Lord Ashdown and the Lib Dems are involved in a bit of mischief-making with their suggestion that Blairite MPs might come and join them (see Pete's take on the story here). The Lib Dems have no realistic prospect of power and I suspect that the Blairites are thoroughly tired of constantly going against a party base that is considerably to the left of them. What I do think, though, is a danger is a lack of a Gaitskellian desire to ‘fight and fight again to save the party’. A friend of mine was recently in a discussion with a Cabinet minister and asked him what he would do if the party lurched to the left or was taken over by the Balls-Unite axis. He replied, ‘Oh I’d be off then.

One of the reasons Obama has been so successful in his brief political career is that he has largely dodged the culture wars. I remember in Iowa and New Hampshire meeting many voters who were drawn to him because they wanted to, in Obama’s phrase, stop re-litigating the 1960s.  But the Supreme Court vacancy caused by David Souter’s coming retirement could drag Obama into this battle. Where the nominee stands on Roe v. Wade, DC’s gun control laws and school vouchers which are used to send pupils to religious schools will dominate the debate.   Bush’s experience, though, shows a way that Obama, who used to teach constitutional law himself, could minimise the culture war fall-out.

Yesterday, The Times published an interview with William Hague. Here’s how it reported his views on the defence budget and Trident: ‘The MoD budget was “not immune”. But he again pledged his party to upgrading the Trident nuclear deterrent.’ But today at his press conference, David Cameron said: “having the best replacement there is for an independent nuclear deterrent - there are reasons for all of these things. But clearly, when you are reviewing spending, you have to review all spending” It is hard to see how one can square these two positions. It would be instructive to know which line—Hague or Cameron’s—is actually party policy.

In the slew of polling data that has come out to mark Obama’s 100 days, two numbers stand out to me: 81 percent of Americans like Obama, that’s 30 percent more than support his policies. This is a result of several things: his personal manner, the fact that people appreciate the historical significance of having a black president and the respect afforded the presidency. But I think an often overlooked factor is that even though Obama is a committed liberal he has some conservative instincts on, most notably, family policy and education. Take this comment from him in a just released interview with the New York Times Magazine: “My grandmother never got a college degree. She went to high school. Unlike my grandfather, she didn’t benefit from the G.I.

The defection of Arlen Specter is a nice momentum booster for Obama on the eve of his 100th day in office. To be sure, by switching parties Specter has saved himself a debilitating primary fight and pretty much guaranteed himself re-election in a state that is becoming increasingly Democratic. But even if the move is hardly a profile in courage, it should still worry the Republican Party. It means that once Al Franken is seated the Democrats will have 60 votes in the Senate; if the Democrats are united they will be able to vote down a filibuster. Specter’s departure also acts as an illustration of how the Republican Party is shrinking.

David Brooks is, to my mind, the most perceptive American commentator. He is a conservative who understands Obama and what he is trying to do. So, I was particularly interested by his remarks on the Charlie Rose show where he said that Cameron’s emphasis on society is what the right should offer as an alternative to the enhanced role for the state that Obama is advocating: “we now have two models. We have the Obama model, which is technocratic, sending teams of experts to solve problems. Very centralized, actually. And then if you want the alternate model -- the Republicans in this country unfortunately have no model because they haven’t thought about it, or they haven’t thought productively about it. But there is another model.