James Forsyth

There’s a fascinating story in the New York Times today about how some al Qaeda terrorists are moving from the tribal areas of Pakistan to Somalia and Yemen. The key question is why are they doing this, is it because Pakistan has become a less hospitable place for them both because of US drone strikes and the Pakistani government’s change in attitude. Or is it because, the totally failed state in Somalia and the failing state in Yemen and the jihadi campaigns there make them them even more appealing places for terrorists than the bad lands of Pakistan. In other words, is the movement a sign of progress in the struggle against al Qaeda or not.

Charles Clarke’s interview with Andrew Neil for Straight Talk is going to make news. In it, Clarke makes clear that the moves to oust Brown are suspended not ended. As he tells Andrew: “It will depend how events go but more importantly than any other single thing it will depend how the people of the country form their judgement of our party and the Government.  And if, for example, the poll ratings go up or we win these by-elections which are going to come through or whatever, I think the issue will go away and he can be confident he leads us into the next election.  If, on the other hand, he somehow doesn’t fulfil those things or electorally we do badly or whatever it might be, then the issue will still be there.

In this week’s Economist, Bagehot has an interesting thought about the dynamics of the Mandelson Brown relationship: “The official line is that [Peter Mandelson] and Mr Brown have buried the hatchets they once deployed against each other, and revived the understanding they shared before their falling out. Perhaps; but perhaps his succour itself contains a subtle form of vengeance. Lord Mandelson could easily have destroyed his erstwhile foe. Yet to a refined palate, the one-off rush of bringing down an old adversary might seem a crass and unsatisfying triumph. How much more gratifying to hold his fate in your hands every day—and he knowing you own it?

As Fraser said earlier, the rebellion has not been defeated: Brown has not had some moment that restores his authority. Instead, he has made the same pledges that he has made before—to set out his vision, to be more inclusive and to call off his bully boys—and they look like they will be enough to buy him a few more weeks. But these pledges won’t be met because Brown can’t change. (Hands up if anyone thinks we’ll make it through the summer without a minister being briefed against by Downing Street). So, soon enough there will be another trigger for a rebellion—defeat in Norwich North or a string of polls with Labour in the teens, say—and the whole show will start all over again.

Alistair Darling has kept silent since the government reshuffle. He knows that any interviewer worth his salt would press him on whether he discussed any alternative jobs with the Prime Minister or the Prime Minister’s staff. But Darling will have to break his silence tomorrow at Treasury questions. Darling finds himself in a nigh-on-impossible position. Everyone in Westminster knows that Brown wanted to move him but couldn’t; I don’t think anyone was convinced by Brown’s denial of this point on Friday.  But Darling can’t be seen to be crowing about facing down the Prime Minister. The next test for Darling will be whether he can prevent Brown from inflicting further damage on the public finances.

Alex Barker at the FT’s Westminster blog rattles off a series of facts to show just how bad things are for Labour, where Brown has led them to. This trio are particularly devastating: “Labour is now the third party of local government in England, with fewer councillors than the Liberal Democrats for the first time since the First World War Labour secured the lowest vote share ever recorded by a serving government in both elections Labour fell under 20 per cent vote share for the first time since 1910, when the party was four years old” It is, as Labour showed in the 1980s and the Tories more recently, very hard for one of the two main parties to destroy itself. But if Brown continues, that might become a possibility.