James Forsyth

John Rentoul in The Independent on Sunday argues that Brown won’t be forced out this time but will be in the autumn.  Here’s the crux of his argument: “When he faces his next convulsion, probably in the autumn, the timetable will look very different. Alan Johnson will be able to come in and promise an early general election – in the spring of next year; that is, roughly, when there has to be an election anyway and nobody has anything to lose. Then, the only calculation that matters is, as James Purnell put it in his resignation letter, whether Brown's "continued leadership makes a Conservative victory more not less likely", or, as Stephen Byers asked more bluntly: "Is Gordon Brown a winner or a loser?

A new Channel 4 / YouGov poll has further weakened the Prime Minister’s position. It shows that more Labour members want him out by the autumn than want him to stay and fight the election. Party members are usually the last group to turn against the leader so the numbers are particularly harmful and may steel the nerves of a few of those wavering about whether to sign the letter. Just under a third of members think that Labour cannot win a general election under Brown. Two-thirds say Brown is a bad communicator and a majority think Labour would be better off if Blair was still in charge. When it comes to the question of who should succeed Brown, 35 percent favour Alan Johnson and 12 percent David Miliband. No one else makes it into double figures.

Nick Raynsford just delivered perhaps the most articulate on-the record version of the rebels’ case that we have heard. Raynsford stressed that periods where government have huge majorities and the opposition are in chaos are not conducive to proper Parliamentary scrutiny—pointing both to Thatcher’s second term and Blair’s first two. Interestingly, a lot of the Labour people who have spoken out today are veterans. Perhaps, it is because they have less to lose. But, I think, more important is the fact that they understand the consequences of the kind of defeat that Brown is leading the party to.

YouGov has just released a European Election voting intention poll and it has Labour in third behind UKIP. The poll has the Tories on 26, UKIP 18, Labour on 16, the Lib Dems 15, the Greens 10 and the BNP on 5. However, if those not certain to vote are included the numbers become the Tories 37, Labour 21, Lib Dem 19 and UKIP 8. So, who can get their vote out is going to be key. It is hard to imagine that Labour supporters are going to feel particularly enthusiastic about voting for their party in the current circumstances. Obviously, what Labour gets and where it finishes is the politically most important factor of the results. But if the Tories score below 30, they received 27 percent of the vote in these elections in 2004, then there will be some disquiet in Conservative circles.