James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Welfare to work will be the first big test of the coalition’s new model for public services

Moving people from welfare to work is going to be the first big test of the idea that public services should be paid for by the state but don’t have to be provided by the state. The coalition intends to task private sector and voluntary groups with moving the unemployed back into the labour force and then pay them by results. For every person they move back into stable employment, they will be paid a fee—based on how long the person has been out of the labour market—out of the saved welfare payments. Tomorrow, the government intends to announce the groups that have successfully bid for these contracts. I understand that the voluntary sector has secured contracts with the potential to be worth north of £100 million.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Things are getting fraught inside the coalition as AV vote looms

Relations between the coalition partners are fraught at present, more of which in the column tomorrow. The main cause of this tension is the AV referendum which is pitting the two sides against each other in an increasingly bitter fight. But even by recent standards, Chris Huhne’s response to the Tory chairman Sayeeda Warsi’s claim that AV would help the BNP is dramatic. As Patrick Wintour reports, Huhne has accussed Warsi and the No campaign of indulging in an ‘increasingly Goebbels-like campaign.’ This latest riposte follows Huhne’s letter at the weekend which made clear that the No campaign’s tactics were threatening the existence of the coalition. The next nine months will be the period of maximum danger for the coalition.

James Forsyth

An explosive session

This PMQs will be remembered for the Cameron Balls spat. As Cameron was answering a question from a Labour MP, he snapped at Balls who was heckling him, shouting ‘you don’t know the answer, you’re not properly briefed, why don’t you just say you’ll write to her’. A visibly irritated Cameron shot back, ‘I wish the shadow Chancellor would shut up and listen for once’. At this the Labour benches erupted, their aim at PMQs is always to get Cameron to lose his temper and they had succeeded. Cameron then produced a brilliant comeback, saying that Balls was ‘the most annoying person in British politics’ and ‘I suspect that the leader of the opposition will come to agree with me.

James Forsyth

Danny Alexander’s duty

In the aftermath of the Budget, the Lib Dems were keen to let it be known that the idea of a windfall tax on North Sea oil companies to pay for ending the fuel duty escalator was Danny Alexander’s idea. But, as Andy Sparrow notes, this claim has ended up causing them some problems. In the chief secretary’s native Scotland, where the Lib Dems are already worrying about a humiliating set of election results on May 5th, the idea has not gone down so well as it has south of the border. The Scotsman reports,  that Lib Dems in Scotland have been scornful of the move. The Lib Dem MP Malcolm Bruce has even accused Alexander of being “economically illiterate". I rather suspect that this line might pop up at PMQs today.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Budget lessons from across the pond for America

In Washington, a budget shutdown is becoming an increasing possibility. The Republican controlled House of Representatives wants deeper cuts than the White House will accept. This has led a growing bi-partisan group of Senators to try and revive the work of the blue-ribbon commission on Fiscal Reform and Responsibility that produced its report late last year. Interestingly, the commission’s proposals are very similar to George Osborne’s plan. UK Treasury analysis shows that the Osborne plan calls for an average tightening of 1.6 percent a year from 2009-10 to 2015-16  while the commission suggests 1.4 percent a year from 2010 t0 2015. The composition is also similar, both work on roughly three quarters spending cuts and one quarter tax rises.

James Forsyth

What to do with Gaddafi?

The charge sheet against Colonel Gaddafi in any trial would be a long one. There are his crimes against his own people, his support of terrorism overseas and his wars in Chad. But, however morally right it would be to make Gaddafi face justice, the door should be left open to him to go into exile. Gaddafi and his family leaving Libya would make possible an end to this conflict and prevent huge bloodshed as Gaddafi attempts to cling on to power street by street. The unpleasant truth is that if dictators are left only with the choice between fighting to the bitter end and a trial in the Hague, they will pick the former option as they have little to lose.     This war in Libya can only be ended by Gaddafi’s departure from power.

Monday

James Forsyth

Boris’s remarkable ability to infuriate Labour

Today’s Commons ding-dong on the riots that followed Saturday’s march was real, politics of the viscera stuff. The Labour benches were furious about Boris’s comments in today’s Telegraph that 'Balls and Miliband will feel quietly satisfied by the disorder' and that they 'will be content to see the police being unfairly attacked on all sides'. Yvette Cooper was so angry that when she tried to read out this section from Boris’s column that she couldn’t get the words out. Boris and Yvette, both Balliol graduates, have previous. But it was still striking quite how angrily Cooper heckled May as she refused to condemn Boris’ comments.

James Forsyth

Another phase in Gove’s revolution

Michael Gove has just finished announcing to the Commons his proposed replacement for Educational Maintenance Allowance. The new scheme is more targeted than the old one that went to 45 percent of those who stayed in education post-16. Interestingly, it will be administered by the schools and colleges themselves. Gove’s argument is that it is these institutions that are best equipped to know which student needs how much money to support them staying in education. This drew predictable opposition from the Labour benches which wanted a top down, national scheme. On top of this discretionary fund, every student who is receiving income support will receive £1,200 a year.

James Forsyth

Clegg’s new direction?

Perhaps the most interesting political story of the weekend was Nick Clegg’s political mentor, Paddy Ashdown rejecting the idea that the Lib Dems should be equidistant between the two main parties in an interview with The Times: 'I don’t want to go back to using the word ‘equidistant’ because the world has changed.” He predicts that Labour will look increasingly like “a bunch of superannuated students shouting from the sidelines.' There are two schools of thought in the Lib Dems about their approach to the next election. One has it that the party must appear equally prepared to do a deal with either of the main parties in the event of a hung parliament.

Sunday

James Forsyth

Why Cameron is so keen on start ups

Cabinet ministers were relatively relaxed about yesterday’s march against the cuts—and rightly so. It did not make a sea-change in British politics and merely served to underline the lack of a credible alternative to what the coalition is doing. But what does worry ministers is where the growth is going to come from in the economy. The corporation tax cuts and the planning law changes are designed to help big business. But what the Prime Minister is more interested in is small businesses; hence tomorrow’s launch of Start-Up Britain by the Prime Minister. The scheme is designed to offer help—both technical and financial—to those looking to start a business.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Miliband is marching to the wrong drum

Ed Miliband’s decision to address today’s anti-cuts march is a strategic mistake. It makes him look like the tribune of an interest group not a national leader. He’ll also be tarred by association, fairly or not, if these scuffles we’re seeing turn into anything more serious. In his speech, Miliband tried to place the march in the tradition of those for female emancipation, civil rights and against apartheid. But this rhetoric doesn’t work as, given Miliband’s commitment to the Darling plan, we are talking about relatively modest differences about the pace of cuts. One other thing that was striking about the speech is Miliband’s attempt to accuse Cameron of practicing the politics of division.

James Forsyth

Politics: Can Osborne make Britain right again?

George Osborne is using his budgets not only to get the economy moving but to make Britain a centre-right country once more. George Osborne is using his budgets not only to get the economy moving but to make Britain a centre-right country once more. The political test of his economic policy will be whether the Conservatives succeed in creating a new majority who feel invested in balanced budgets and low taxes. It is tempting to dismiss Gordon Brown as a failure: a man who coveted his neighbour’s job for a decade, and then didn’t know what to do when he got it. But just because his career ended in failure, doesn’t mean that he failed to achieve anything.

Friday

James Forsyth

Welcome revisions to IPSA’s rules

If you want to get an MP going, just ask them what they think of IPSA — the new expenses watchdog. The body is hated: when Cameron joked at PMQs this week that it should be relocated to Croydon there was laughter across the House. IPSA is regarded as rude and inefficient. When Tory MPs were in a particularly grumpy mood before Christmas, David Cameron went to the ’22 and promised that IPSA would either have to mend its ways or be mended. Today’s revisions to the rules by IPSA (£) will go some way to addressing the concerns of MPs. The old rules only allowed children to be treated as dependants until the age of 5. Now, they can be treated as such until 18.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Agreement in principle reached for Nato to take command of operations over Libya 

I understand that agreement in principle has now been reached to pass command of the Libya operation to Nato. The United States has been keen to relinquish control for days now--the Obama administration has no desire for Libya to turn into another American responsibility--but agreement within Nato about the alliance taking over command of the mission could not be reached. This has led to an embarrassing situation where no one appears to want to actually be in charge of the operation. The blockage, up to now, to transferring control to Nato has been Turkey. Ankara is not keen on the whole intervention and is furious about not having been invited by Nicolas Sarkozy to the summit in Paris last weekend.

James Forsyth

Libya operation will take months not weeks

With the Budget over, attention is beginning to shift back to the situation in Libya. A government source tells me that they expect the mission in Libya now to run for months not weeks. The challenge is that while the allies can stop Gaddafi’s forces from advancing from the sky, they can’t make the poorly organised and poorly armed rebels advance. There’s also an arms embargo in place on the whole of Libya and while some small arms are moving across the border with Egypt into the rebel-held east, the Gaddafi regime still remains far-better armed. This conflict could be over very quickly if those inside the regime turn against Gaddafi. But if they do not, this could go on for far longer than most people expect.

James Forsyth

Another Eurozone country bailout looms

The front pages of tomorrow’s papers are a mixed bag for George Osborne. He’ll be happy with The Sun’s welcome for his abolition of the fuel escalator but, I suspect, a tad disappointed by the Mail’s warning that there are ‘Shocks under the bonnet’ in the Budget. Among the other papers, The Express is very keen—‘Budget gives us all hope—but The Mirror is predictably hostile. There’s one other story moving tonight which has Budget relevance, the resignation of the Portuguese PM (pictured left) after losing a parliamentary vote on an austerity package. This makes it highly likely that Portugal will become the third Eurozone country to seek a bailout.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Osborne’s 50p question

If I was a betting man, I’d fancy wagering that if the economy is growing at a decent clip again by next year’s Budget, Osborne will abolish the 50p rate then. His announcement of a review of how much revenue it actually brings in, strikes me as a move to pave the way for its abolition. This review is, if it is using dynamic models, likely to conclude that the rate is bringing in no, or minimal, revenue and that a lower rate would produce more. This would give Osborne the political cover to reduce the rate. But, as with so much else, this is dependent on growth returning to the economy.  Osborne won’t want to get rid of the 50p rate until he can do some other things such as unfreezing public sector pay.

James Forsyth

Balls replies with mischief

Ed Balls has just delivered Labour’s Budget briefing. His main point was that the Office of Budget Responsibility now forecasts higher levels of unemployment than it did last autumn. He claimed that this would lead to a £12.6bn increase in spending on unemployment benefit. He also argued that the decision to increase tax thresholds by CPI rather than RPI was an effective tax increase and that it will hit the middle hardest. In a classic piece of Ballsian mischief, he reveled in pointing out that the Office of Budget Responsibility says that it received news of the extra cut in corporation tax and the 1p cut in fuel duty too late to add to its model.

James Forsyth

Lib Dems bringing home the bacon

There are a few big Lib Dem policy wins in this Budget, most notably the rise in the personal allowance and the introduction of land auctions. But there are also a few bits of rather unseemly pork barrel politics. Nick Clegg’s Sheffield gets an enterprise zone, which is probably fair enough. But we are also told that ‘following a thorough review, the government is approving the revised Sheffield retail quarter regeneration scheme.’ The south west, which has a disproportionately large number of Lib Dem seats, gets help to keep water bills down.

James Forsyth

Osborne pulls it off

George Osborne beat the expectations game today. His abolition of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament should — Elizabeth Taylor and Libya permitting — get him the front pages he wants.   Aside from the headline measures, I think there are three stories that will run on from this Budget. First, the government is accepting the Hutton report’s recommendations on public sector pensions in full. This puts the ball firmly back in the unions court, who had previously accused the government of trying to cherry pick from it. Second, the requirement that all planning decisions will have to be reached within one year will have a big impact. A huge number of projects get held up in the planning system for years, so this is a welcome move.