James Forsyth

At the weekend, it appeared that Chris Huhne had won his battle with Vince Cable and George Osborne over whether or not the government should sign up to the 4th carbon budget. This budget covers 2023 to 2027 and is all part of a plan to cut carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 compared to the level in 1990; they have currently been reduced by 26.5 percent from the 1990 level. But it now appears that the greens in government might have been premature in declaring victory. First, the next set of cuts in UK carbon emissions is dependent on the European Union agreeing to embark on an equally significant emissions cut by early 2014. If this does not happen, then the UK carbon budget will default to the EU average.

Looking at today’s papers, it is clear—as Pete says—that Chris Huhne’s political career is in real danger. The most striking thing about the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Times stories about the allegation that he asked someone to take driving penalty points for him is that the person who took the points appears to have taped a recent conversation between the pair about the matter. This suggests a total breakdown in trust between them. The Sunday Times also includes the allegation that Huhne “is alleged to have entered another person’s name on the form, without consulting them.

David Laws has just apologised to the House of Commons in a short statement listened to in sombre silence. Laws stressed that he was glad that the commissioner and the committee had accepted that his motivation had been to protect his privacy not to enrich himself. Indeed, Laws pointed out — somewhat boldly — that there had been ‘no adverse effect’ for the taxpayer from his arrangements as he could have claimed more. The report and the punishment are harsher on Laws than many expected. But given that the coalition needs him and, as David has noted, that Laws’ own explanation for why he broke the rules has been accepted, I think Laws is a contender to return in the March 2012 reshuffle.

David Cameron was received in the usual desk-thumping way at the 1922 Committee. But what was striking about his appearance was his message that the NHS reform pause is his idea not Nick Clegg’s and that he won’t let the Lib Dems take credit for the coming changes. The robustness of this message took even Tory MPs by surprise. But I understand that Tory high command feels that Clegg’s decision to list the Tory policies he had blocked this morning means that they are allowed to make points like this. There were some hostile questions to Cameron but the general mood of the meeting was positive.

One of the worries of Tory modernisers about the coalition back in May last year was that the Tories would end up being seen as being responsible for all the tough but necessary stuff, eg deficit reduction, while the Lib Dems would claim the cuddly stuff, for example the pupil premium — a policy that was in both the Tory and Lib Dem manifestos.   David Willetts in a piece in the Telegraph today, taken from a speech he’s giving tonight, makes this point anew in the context of the new, frostier coalition relations: “This agenda is shared, so it would be a mistake to get into a game of identifying Liberal measures and Tory ones in a perpetual trade-off.

After every election, the political stock exchange goes into a frenzy trying to work out who is a buy and who is a sell. Thirty-six hours after the polls closed, it is a little clearer who the winners and losers of this election season have been. Here are our selections: Winners Alex Salmond, the biggest winner of Thursday night. Salmond has achieved what the Scottish electoral system was meant to prevent, an overall SNP majority in the Scottish parliament. Salmond now has the votes he needs for a referendum on independence.

Chris Huhne’s behaviour still has everyone at Westminster talking. Earlier in the week, senior Liberal Democrats were saying that once the voting had happened, Paddy Ashdown and the party president Tim Farron would communicate the party’s anger at the behaviour of the No campaign, while the party’s Cabinet ministers began to rebuild relations with their coalition colleagues. Vince Cable, for example, has been far more restrained today than he was during the campaign, blaming AV’s defeat on the failings of the Yes campaign not the No campaign’s tactics. But Huhne either didn’t get these instructions or has chosen to ignore them.