James Forsyth

William Hague’s speech to conference today wasn’t the barn-burner of years past. It did include some jabs at Balls and Miliband. Hague joked that “their shadow Chancellor was Gordon Brown’s right hand man. And their leader was right hand man to the right hand man.”  But the overall tone was serious. Politically, two things struck me as significant about the speech. First, Hague showed how determined the Tories are to play the Cameron card. The speech ended with a long tribute to the Prime Minister which called him “the leader for a better future”. The Tories are convinced that of the three party leaders, Cameron is the only one who strikes the country as a plausible PM.

On Any Questions, Alan Duncan—a minister of state at the Department to International Development and a longstanding ally of the Foreign Secretary William Hague—has just predicted a partial Greek default. He told the programme that ‘I guess what’s going to happen is there will be a partial default and some kind of agreement’. There have long been rumours in Westminster that the British government’s position was now to—in private—push for an orderly default. Indeed, George Osborne’s comment in his Telegraph interview today that the eurozone “need to end this endless speculation about Greece — they have got to come to a decision and stick to it” implied that.

The European Commission has just given David Cameron the perfect chance to stand up to Brussels. Its attempt to make Britain pay benefits in full to any citizen of an EU country who pitches up here is, frankly, barking and if successful would totally undermine public support for the free movement of people, as Fraser said last night. But, politically, this row provides Cameron with a real opportunity. By taking the commission on over it, he can reassure his party that he’s still a Eurosceptic while avoiding the more fundamental issues of the euro and Britain’s whole relationship with the EU.

Those now leaving Liverpool are indulging in some shadow Cabinet reshuffle speculation. This chatter has been sparked both by the fact that Miliband has now abolished shadow Cabinet election and by how many of the media rounds in the past few days have been done by members of the 2010 intake notably Stella Creasy, Chuka Umanna and Rachel Reeves. Expect them to be in line for rapid promotion. To make way for them, some of the under-performing members of the shadow Cabinet will have to be sacked. One name touted as being in the frame is John Healey, the health spokesman. Healey has long infuriated some in the leader’s office who think that he spends more time wondering how he could become deputy leader of the party than on how to attack Andrew Lansley.

Ed Miliband has just finished an hour and twenty minute long question and answer session. The audience was meant to be a mix of the general public and Labour members, but there seemed to be far more Labour members than anybody else. It would be easy to take the Michael out of the whole event. The questioner who walked out as the Labour leader was trying to answer his question, Miliband’s tendency to stare into the bleachers with his hand above his eyes and the technical glitches. One could also, rightly, say that the vast majority of questions were classic lefty fare. But there was the glimmer of something important here. There were flashes of the humour that comes across in private but not in public. In short, Miliband seemed far more himself than he did yesterday.

Ed Balls’s speech to Labour conference just now was a typically Ballsian performance. There was intellectual aggression, dividing lines with the Tories and a bit of class warfare from this privately educated Oxbridge graduate. The meat of Balls’ address was a Brown-style five point plan. The new elements of this were a National Insurance holiday for new workers and a reduction in Vat to five percent for home improvements and maintenance. The former struck me as a classic bit of opposition politics, work out what the government might try and do and announce it first.

David Miliband was studiously loyal to his brother in his one speaking appearance at Labour conference. He told Movement for Change, the community organising group that he founded, that ‘Ed deserves huge praise’, that ‘Ed has led with purpose and conviction and that ‘we’ll all here because we want to put Ed into Downing Street’ But the brother over the water did come with three warning for Labour. The first was that ‘if Labour becomes a sectional party, we’ll never be elected to government.’ The second was that there’s ‘never been more distrust of the state across the industrialised world’ so if Labour becomes ‘a big state party, we’ll never get over the mistrust of the state’.

The sense of unreality that hangs over party conference seems particularly heightened this year. As events outside roll on at a dramatic pace, the conferences try to proceed as normal. A new law on stalking may be necessary but it is small beer compared to the economic crisis gripping the Western world at the moment. Ed Miliband’s challenge in the next few days is two-fold. First, he has to work to restore Labour’s economic credibility—something that will be made even harder by today’s allegations about the role of his shadow Chancellor in the last government. Second, he has to show that the party gets the seriousness of this moment. Miliband, who travelled up on the train with his wife and children earlier today, is running into a headwind of bad polls.