James Forsyth

Today’s Daily Express poll will add to the sense of momentum that the Tory rebels are feeling ahead of Monday’s vote. The fact that 81 per cent of Tory voters want their MP to vote for the motion will make it harder for the whips to dissuade those who are inclined to vote for the motion. The poll results also demonstrate that only a small percentage of the public would vote for the country’s current set-up with the European Union if they had the chance. Only 15 per cent would vote to stay in, compared to 28 per cent who would vote to leave, while 47 per cent would plump for renegotiation. If forced to chose between In or Out, the public splits 31 to 52.

George Eustice’s comments just now that if the government doesn’t support his amendment  to the EU referendum motion, then he’s "minded" to vote for the original motion is a sign of how Downing Street is losing the parliamentary party on this issue at an alarming rate. Eustice having been press secretary to David Cameron is not an instinctive rebel nor can he be being accused of motivated by personal animus.   Equally telling is Eustice’s saying that he’s being pushed towards supporting the motion because "the government’s not going to deal with the party in a responsible way on this". This is a sign of just how fed up normally supportive MPs are with Number 10’s handling of this whole issue.

Sources in Number 10 tell me that the party leaderships feels it cannot support the Eustice amendment. They stress that it is not Conservative party policy. But I also detect a sense that there is no point even considering backing it as the Lib Dems would never accept renegotiation followed by a referendum being government policy. If Number 10 continues to be inflexible, it will have a sizable rebellion on its hands. Tory MPs — especially those who think they might have a reselection fight on their hands, and that’s a lot of them thanks to the boundary review — want something to take back to their constituencies.

We thought CoffeeHousers might appreciate an advanced viewing of James' political column from tomorrow's issue of The Spectator, so here it is: In the hours after the coalition was formed last May, a minister and a group of Tory MPs sat around a table in a parliamentary cafeteria discussing what it all meant. One new MP said to the minister that it was a pity that, in the course of the talks, the Tories had agreed to ‘park Europe for the next five years’. The minister, high on the Panglossian spirit of the early days of the coalition, reassured her that this was for the best. The party could devote its full attention to Europe when the economic situation was less pressing.

For all the attention that is being focused in Westminster on the publication of the Cabinet Secretary’s report into the links between Adam Werritty and Liam Fox tomorrow, the real story is the countdown to Cannes. It is now three weeks since George Osborne declared that the eurozone countries had three weeks to save the Euro. So far, they haven’t done anywhere near enough. There’s also little sign that this weekend’s summit will see them make much progress. The Germans are already busy playing down expectations. From a British perspective, the intriguing question is: what does the coalition do if the eurozone continues to show no sign of getting its act together?

One Cabinet minister fretted to me yesterday about the implications of Justine Greening’s appointment as Secretary of State for Transport. Their worry was not Greening’s position on the Tory ideological spectrum but her views on aviation. This minister worried that Greening, who helped lead the opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, would be against any expansion in airport capacity. In recent months, opinion has been shifting at the top of the Tory party on the airports issue. People were increasingly coming round to the view that there was need for an extra airport or at least an extra runway somewhere close to the capital.

Parliamentary party management is, perhaps, the subtlest of the political arts. It is, obviously, particularly difficult in coalition. But the Cameroons are still scoring a ‘must do better’ grade on this work. The mini reshuffle was fairly neatly executed. But it has, almost inevitably, left behind some bruised feelings. Part of the problem is that the Whips’ office is, to borrow a phrase, neither Sandhurst nor a proper careers’ department. Ministers and MPs are all too often left to guess at why they have been passed over for promotion. There is also a tendency for people to be rapidly promoted and then fall out of favour almost as suddenly.

The final reshuffle moves have now been announced. Chloe Smith, the winner of the Norwich North by-election, moves from the Whips office to become economic secretary to the Treasury. Expect Smith to, in time, do a lot of media. Greg Hands, Obsorne’s PPS moves into her slot as a whip. From this position, he’ll be able to continue running the parliamentary side of George Osborne’s highly effective political operation. Sajid Javid moves from being PPS to John Hayes to being PPS to the Chancellor. I suspect that Smith’s promotion will be seen by those Tories who held frontbench positions in opposition but missed out on jobs in government because of coalition as evidence that their chances of promotion are effectively gone.