James Forsyth

The House of Lords has tonight rejected a Labour amendment that would have given 16 and 17 year olds the vote in the EU referendum. This removes the largest potential obstacle to getting the EU referendum legislation into law quickly. This means that, if the government can get a deal at the EU summit in February, a June referendum is still possible. The government’s victory in the Lords tonight was not expected. Most observers, including myself, thought that the opposition’s in-built majority would be enough to get the Labour amendment passed, and so start ping pong between the two Houses. But the Lords has backed down from a confrontation with the elected House on this matter.

When the EU is in crisis, the Commission’s answer is, inevitably, more Europe. So, its response to the migrant crisis is to propose an EU border force that could, in extremis, take over the management of Schengen countries’ borders without permission. Now, Britain is not in Schengen so this proposal would not apply here. But it is worth considering just how federalising it is. Under this proposal, the Italians, say, could suddenly find the EU manning its borders. It would be a major erosion of national sovereignty. The Guardian’s Ian Traynor reports that the French and the Germans are backing this idea, which gives it a reasonable chance of success.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/thegreendelusion/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss Labour's civil war over Syria airstrikes" startat=700] Listen [/audioplayer]It makes no sense for Britain to bomb Islamic State in Iraq but not Syria. Attacking a group that does not respect international borders on only one side of a border makes no strategic or military sense. From the Prime Minister down, government ministers are acutely aware of this absurdity. That is why they have been so keen to gain the Commons’ permission to extend the strikes to Syria. Yet this week Westminster has been gripped, not by the strategic case for taking the fight to Islamic State in Syria, but by the effect that this debate has had on the Labour party.

A majority of the shadow Cabinet voted with Jeremy Corbyn tonight in opposing extending air strikes against Islamic State to Syria. But 11 members of it voted for bombing Islamic State in Syria. Here’s the full list: Against: Jeremy Corbyn Jon Ashworth Jon Trickett John Healey Lisa Nandy Kerry McCarthy Andy Bunrham Diane Abbott Catherine McKinnell Ian Murray Lilian Greenwood John McDonnell Seema Malhotra Nia Griffith Kate Green Owen Smith For Hilary Benn Tom Watson Angela Eagle Gloria de Piero Michael Dugher Maria Eagle Lucy Powell Heidi Alexander Luciana Berger Chris Bryant Vernon Coaker The chief whip Rosie Winterton, contrary to earlier reports, abstained.

David Cameron has just said that the Commons will debate extending air strikes against Islamic State to Syria on Wednesday. Given that Cameron has repeatedly made clear that he wouldn’t bring the issue back to the Commons unless he was confident he could win a vote with a clear majority, this must mean that he calculates that Labour granting its MPs a free vote means that he now has the numbers he needs. Speaking from the Cabinet Room, Cameron argued that this ‘was the right thing to do’ as the UK’s allies had asked for this country’s help and because Islamic State does not respect the Iraqi / Syrian border, it makes little sense to attack it only on one side of this border.

At the start of this week, everyone was wondering how George Osborne was going to get out of trouble on tax credits, avoid a deeply damaging row over police cuts, all while still keeping to his surplus target. But thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility upgrading its forecasts, Osborne was able to scrap the tax credit changes, protect the police budget and maintain his plan for a £10 billion surplus by the end of the parliament. But now, an even bigger challenge awaits Osborne: the EU renegotiation. I argue in my Sun column today that it is now the biggest threat to his chances of becoming Prime Minister.

David Cameron came to the Commons today to make the case for the UK extending its bombing campaign against Islamic State to Syria. His tone was as emollient as possible, as he responded to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee report which argued that the UK should not do this. He said that the UK could provide unique capabilities and that there are 70,000 non-extremist, Syrian fighters who could act as a ground force to support the bombing campaign. He stressed that as long as the Islamic State ‘Caliphate’ exists, it would act as a rallying cry for Islamist extremists around the world and that it had ‘repeatedly’ tried to attack the UK.

In the peroration of his statement today, George Osborne declared that the Tories were ‘the mainstream representatives of the working people of Britain.’ This is how he wants to position the Tories and it is why the tax credit changes had to go: they were getting in the way of the Tory attempt to rebrand themselves as the workers’ party. By ditching the tax credit changes, the Tories can now return to this theme—and can try and gain maximum political benefit from the national living wage. Osborne believes that with Jeremy Corbyn / John McDonnell leading the Labour party, the Tories have a real opportunity to pick up support from low income voters who wouldn’t normally have thought of voting for the Tories.

David Cameron’s initial statement to the Commons on the Strategic Defence and Security Review was a rather high-minded affair. Cameron talked about how the world was an even more dangerous place now than it was in 2010 and conceded that governments can’t predict the future, and that you had to ‘expect the unexpected’ when it came to national security. But his reply to Corbyn’s rather rambling response - which went on so long that John Bercow felt obliged to tell the Labour leader to hurry up - was brutal. Cameron rattled off Corbyn and his shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s greatest hits on national security as the Labour benches looked even more depressed than they did last Wednesday.