James Forsyth

George Osborne’s plan for this referendum was to turn it into a question of the future versus the past, for both the country and the Tory party. He wanted the voters to see the Out campaign as a bunch of people who wanted to take Britain back to a bygone era. Inside the Tory party, his aim was to have the talent and the ambition on the IN side with only old war horses and the passed over and bitter on the other side. But the events of the past 36 hours have blown this plan off course. Out now has one of the most popular politicians in the country on board in Boris, as well as one of the intellectual driving forces behind Tory modernisation and the party’s new social justice agenda in Gove.

At Cabinet this morning, every minister spoke in strict order of Cabinet seniority. This meant that Michael Gove was the first person to make the case for Out. I’m told that his argument to Cabinet was essentially the same as the hugely powerful statement he put out afterwards, which you can read in full here. The theme of the Cabinet discussion was, broadly, the trade-off between sovereignty and access to the free market. According to one of those present, where you fell on that question determined your position in the debate. One IN supporting Cabinet minister tells me that Oliver Letwin was the most persuasive speaker for that side of the argument.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/spectatorpodcastspecial-davidcameronseudeal/media.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss the EU deal" startat=18] Listen [/audioplayer] As the EU Council meeting in Brussels drags on and on, the chances of a Cabinet meeting this evening are receding. But based on discussions I’ve had, the Cameron circle now seem pretty much resigned to losing Michael Gove to the Out campaign once the deal is done. If Gove has gone to Out, it will be a shot of pure adrenaline for the Out campaign. It will give it intellectual respectability and genuine Cabinet heft. The move will also confirm Gove’s status as a conviction politician. No one seems to know what Boris Johnson will do.

David Cameron heads to Brussels today still not knowing which Tory big beasts he will have supporting him in the referendum campaign. The Cameron circle had always been confident that Boris Johnson would ultimately back staying In. But that confidence has been shaken by yesterday’s meeting between Boris and the PM. Part of the problem is that what Boris has always said that he wants on sovereignty is very hard, if not impossible, to actually deliver. If the Cameron circle is worried about Boris, it seems increasingly resigned to losing Michael Gove to the Out side. As I say in the column this week, an immense amount of emotional energy has gone into trying to persuade the Justice Secretary not to back Out.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, then the EU referendum campaign will be under way very shortly. Cameron himself will be the main figure on the In side of the argument. The Home Secretary Theresa May will also throw herself into the campaign, as Rachel Sylvester wrote this week. Another face of the effort to keep Britain in the EU will be Alan Johnson, the former Home Secretary, who is running the Labour IN campaign. The Remain side of the argument will, as the above list shows, be able to call upon a formidable amount of political firepower. But what is not yet clear is what kind of Out campaign it will face.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/thenextrefugeecrisis/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss the PM's argument for staying in" startat=763] Listen [/audioplayer]It is normally in the final, frantic days of a campaign that a multitude of dubious claims are made. But when it comes to the EU referendum, this has begun before the date of the vote has even been set. We’re told that anti-terrorism measures would be damaged by a British exit from the European Union, that migrant camps would sprout up in the garden of England and Six Nations rugby would never be the same again.

A walk in the park for David Cameron at PMQs this week. Jeremy Corbyn asked six questions on housing, but they were all too long and lacked any edge: they were the opposite of forensic. Cameron simply batted them away and rattled off a list of what he had done and the supposed failings of the last Labour government. Even Corbyn’s tactics of sourcing questions from the public backfired on him this week. As he talked about an email he had received from Rosie the House fell about — assuming it was a reference to Rosie Winterton, the chief whip, who is known not to be her leader’s biggest fan. Angus Robertson, who can normally be relied upon to put Cameron under more pressure than Corbyn, didn’t have a successful outing either.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/fightingovercrumbs-euroscepticsandtheeudeal/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Vote Leave's Stephen Parkinson discuss Euroscepticsm"] The Leave campaigns continue to bicker with each other in increasingly absurd fashion, but it would be wrong to think that everything is going the In campaign’s way. Number 10, as I write in The Sun today, have been taken aback by the sheer scale of the hostility to the deal. There have been some very tense meetings in Downing Street this week. Cameron himself is, I understand, acutely aware of how volatile the situation is and how quickly the referendum could turn. But those around him are more confident.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/fightingovercrumbs-euroscepticsandtheeudeal/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Vote Leave's Stephen Parkinson discuss Euroscepticsm"] The great confrontation between David Cameron and Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers did not materialise today. Instead, the tone of the questions following the Prime Minister’s statement was strikingly civil. Edward Leigh thanked Cameron for the fact that there was going to be a referendum, Steve Baker paid tribute to his negotiating effort and Peter Bone tried to recruit him to the Out side. Jacob Rees-Mogg, though, was more critical. He complained that the ‘thin gruel had been watered down’ still further and warned Cameron he had a fortnight to save his reputation as a negotiator.

With David Cameron in Chippenham, it was left to the Europe Minister David Lidington to respond to Jeremy Corbyn’s urgent question. Cameron’s absence was poor form. Lidington manfully tried to claim that it was explained by the fact the government didn’t know when Tusk would publish the draft, but the media were only alerted that Cameron would give a speech in Chippenham after Tusk had said the deal would be announced at midday today. Number 10 is defending Cameron’s absence by pointing to the fact he’d already decided to give a statement to parliament tomorrow—once the MPs have had a chance to examine the deal.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/whysexmatters-thedeathofsportandistheeusinkingwhetherbrexithappensornot-/media.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss whether the European project is in grave danger – regardless of Brexit happening or not" startat=1420] Listen [/audioplayer] Donald Tusk will not circulate the proposed draft UK/EU deal tomorrow. It had been thought that Tusk would put out a draft on Monday after final talks over supper with Cameron this evening. Instead, there will be further meetings between UK and EU diplomats, before Tusk decides whether or not to circulate a draft text to the other member states on Tuesday.

We are only days away from seeing Donald Tusk’s proposed text for the UK/EU deal. The President of the European Council is expected to circulate a draft early next week following his Sunday night supper with David Cameron. But, as I write in The Sun this morning, Downing Street is keen to stress that the publication of this draft doesn’t mean that the renegotiation is over. They are adamant that Cameron will have a chance to toughen up the terms at the European Council on February the 18th. Cameron’s problem is that he would like a deal at the February Council, so that he can have a referendum in June. But the more EU leaders think he wants a quick deal, the less they will be inclined to give him.