James Forsyth

The best thing that can be said for David Cameron’s current predicament is that he has been here before. His career has been punctuated by moments when the polls and the pundits have said he was done for. In 2007, with the new Prime Minister Gordon Brown enjoying a honey-moon and considering a snap election, this magazine pictured him on the cover with a noose and the headline ‘Get out of this, Dave’. He did. At times, even he has thought his leadership was over. On election day last year, he spent the early evening rehearsing his resignation speech to his closest aides. Hours later, he was hailing the ‘sweetest victory of all’. It was the Scottish referendum two years ago that caused Cameron the most worry.

One consequence of David Cameron’s refusal to take part in any ‘Blue on Blue’ debates is that he and Michael Gove are appearing several days apart on BBC Question Time. Tonight, it was Gove’s turn to face the studio audience. In reply to the first question, Gove made clear that—in the event of Britain voting to leave—he wouldn’t support the so-called ‘punishment Budget’ that George Osborne set out today. Gove said that the Remain campaign were ‘turning it up to 11’ on the scare stories as polling day approached. Though, interestingly, he studiously avoided any personal criticism of Osborne. With the polls tightening the Remainers are getting more passionate, and Gove faced some fairly hostile questions from the audience.

All sides of the Remain campaign are turning their fire on Boris Johnson at the moment. But these attacks are, I argue in The Sun today, a mistake by the Remainers. First, it makes Boris, the most popular politician in the country, the face of the Out campaign when the IN campaign’s strategic aim is to make voters think that Nigel Farage embodies the Out case. Second, it means that the whole referendum is seen through the prism of the Tory leadership. This is not only bad for Tory party unity post-referendum, but also makes it harder for IN campaign to get the support of Labour party voters as it drowns out Labour’s own message. Senior figures in the Remain campaign think that the attacks on Boris work because, they claim, he is seen as being out for himself and a hypocrite.

Sometimes you sense that Nigel Farage is keen to create controversy, to stir things up. But tonight in his interview with Andrew Neil, Farage seemed keen to do the opposite; turning in a restrained performance. When Andrew Neil asked what net migration would be post-Brexit, Farage replied that ‘it would be up to us’. He said that the two sides in this campaign shouldn’t be putting forward manifesto-style promises, as the question is really about who governs not what they do. The subtext of this seemed to be that it wouldn’t be him deciding the policy. Under further questioning from Andrew Neil, Farage said he would like to get net migration down to 50,000 or so.

The Spectator Podcast Christopher Meyer, James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the first 100 days of Brexit At 5.15 a.m. on Friday 24 June 2016, David Cameron calls Michael Gove and concedes defeat in the EU referendum. The conversation is brief. With nearly all the results in, it is clear that Remain cannot overturn Leave’s advantage. Downing Street announces that Cameron will address the country before the markets open. Up to now, this scenario has just been a worst nightmare for the Remain campaign and the wildest dream of the Brexiteers. Even now, the political class is almost unanimous that ‘in’ will win. But there is little psephological evidence for their certainty.

PODCAST: Listen to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss George Osborne's performance: In a feisty interview with Andrew Neil, George Osborne has just declared that Turkey is not going to become a member of the EU. Osborne said that ‘Turkey has gone backwards’ since 2010 when David Cameron voiced his enthusiastic support for it joining the EU. He then went on to say, ‘Is it going to be a member of the European Union? No, it is not’. I suspect that Osborne’s intervention won’t end the Turkish issue in this referendum campaign. It is, after all, still official government policy that Turkey should join the EU at some point.

The first of the BBC’s series of prime-time EU referendum events took place this evening, with Andrew Neil interviewing Hilary Benn. The programme highlighted both the uneasy relationship between Benn and his leader Jeremy Corbyn and the Remain campaign’s difficulty in dealing with the immigration issue. Andrew Neil began by putting to Hilary Benn a very Eurosceptic quote from Jeremy Corbyn about the EU from the Maastricht debate of the 1990s and asking Benn what Corbyn got wrong. To which Benn replied, rather uncomfortably, that the ‘Jeremy of today’ supports Britain staying in the EU.

The Leave campaign have had their best week of the campaign this week. After months of being battered by the Whitehall machine, they’ve taken advantage of purdah silencing government departments to get themselves onto the front foot. As I write in The Sun this morning, even IN supporting Cabinet Ministers admit that Leave have had a good week. But they argue that they won’t be able to ride the immigration issue to victory on June 23rd. One argues that you can’t focus on immigration week after week, or ‘By week four, you end up sounding like Nigel Farage’. But Vote Leave think their trump card is the link between immigration and people’s pay packets. That is the economic argument they are confident they will win.

It was Michael Gove’s turn in the Sky hot-seat tonight and he came determined to make the democratic case for Brexit. In the initial exchanges, Faisal Islam went after Gove hard on the question of how many economists, international institutions and countries back Britain leaving the EU. Islam pushed Gove to name 11 economists who back Brexit, Gove declined to do so. Islam then asked Gove why the British public should trust him, to which Gove replied that he was asking the British public to trust themselves. But the bigger challenge for Gove was always going to be dealing with the audience questions, which he is far less used to doing than David Cameron.

In a feisty interview with Faisal Islam, David Cameron defended his pledge to cut immigration to the tens of thousands but wouldn’t put a date on when he would achieve it. Cameron argued that when the Eurozone economy recovered, he might be able to meet it. Now, this isn’t realistic. The problems with the Eurozone economy are structural and it is impossible to see how net migration could be reduced to the tens of thousands inside the EU; not that getting it down to the tens of thousands outside the EU would be easy—or even desirable. After the interview, came a series of questions from the audience. Cameron kept his cool under some hostile questioning and gave no hostages to fortune.

This EU referendum is a particularly difficult contest to poll and after the general election we all should be wary of treating them as gospel. But there’s no getting away from the fact that the mood in Westminster—and on the two campaigns—is heavily influenced by the polls. The recent good numbers for Leave have put a string in its step. They have also ensured that Vote Leave’s focus on immigration in the last few days isn’t seen as the last roll of the dice but as an attempt to focus on one of its strongest areas. Interestingly, influential figures on the Remain side privately accept that the referendum appears to have tightened up in the past few days.

The IN campaign’s plan for victory in this EU referendum is relatively simple.  ‘Do you want the status quo or the riskt alternative?’, is how one Cameron ally sums it up. To date, Remain—aided by the various government dossiers—have been pretty effective at pushing this message. That is why they are ahead in the polls. So, Vote Leave know that they need to push the risks of staying in, up the agenda. I write in The Sun this morning that their message in the coming weeks will be that ‘wages will be lower and taxes will be higher if stay in the EU’. Their argument will be that the continuing troubles in the Eurozone will hit the UK in two ways.

If you ask most people if they wanted to win £50 million, the answer would be: where do I sign up? That’s why Vote Leave has launched a competition this morning (here’ the link to enter) offering £50 million to anyone who can correctly predict the result of every game in this summer’s European football championship, if no-one scoops the whole prize,£50,000 will go the person who came closest. Why is the prize £50 million? Because that’s what Vote Leave say the UK sends to the European Union each day. Vote Leave hope that this competition will get one of its key messages, the cost of EU membership, out to a non-politically involved audience. So, what’s in this £50 million competition for Vote Leave? Put simply, data.

The Lincoln-Douglas debate it was not, but we have just had the first prime time TV debate of this EU referendum. With Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson for In and Liam Fox and the UKIP MEP Diane James for Out speaking to an audience of 18 to 29 year olds in Glasgow. Many in the audience wanted to complain about the tit for tat tactics of the two sides in this referendum campaign or to condemn the scaremongering by both sides; interestingly, they seemed very sceptical of the Treasury’s forecasts of economic pain if the UK left the EU. One audience member, though, seemed to object to the idea that he would have to think about the issue at all.