Freddy Gray

Some wag has gone around Rome putting up spoof 'Vota Turkson' posters. This is a reference to the Ghanian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who has been much-tipped to be the first black Pope. Turkson has a lot of support, it seems, and not all of it sardonic. Many Catholics say now is the time for an African Pope. And there's a sense that it might take someone from the developing world to knock the Roman Curia -- widely thought to be an arcane and corrupt body - into shape. But as I've written in this week's magazine, a number of Vatican insiders think that, far from being an outsider, the next Pope must be an Italian. Only an Italian, it's said, can understand and fix the complex problems within the Curia.

In a corner of the Sistine Chapel, below Michelangelo’s hell, is a door to the little chamber they call ‘the room of tears’. Some painter-decorators are in there, frantically doing the place up. That’s because, in a matter of days, a new Pope will be led into the room. According to tradition, at that moment, as he first contemplates the magnitude of his role, he will weep. A myth, you might think. But we can be sure that the next Supreme Pontiff — whoever he is — will have plenty to sob about. Since Benedict XVI’s resignation two weeks ago, each day seems to have brought yet more bad news. Scandal is swarming around the upcoming papal conclave like a Biblical plague.

A rather feverish mood around the Vatican today: La Repubblica’s sensational splash suggesting that Pope Benedict XVI was pushed out by a 'gay mafia' within the Church hierarchy has set Latin tongues wagging. Lurid whispers about sex and bribery abound. The theory - given wind by Benedict's Ash Wednesday statement that opposition ‘mars the face of the church’ - is that the Pope was so appalled by the findings of the top secret 300-page dossier he commissioned into the ‘Vatileaks’ scandal, he decided he couldn’t go on. It’s all rather intoxicatingly Italian, even if it sounds a bit too much like a pastiche to be true. More sober voices point out that journalism here is always incredibly hyperbolic and La Repubblica is on the wackier fringe.

It's got to be an African, hasn't it? That's what editors, including my esteemed boss, are saying across the country in response to Pope Benedict's shock resignation. And Fraser's right: a black conservative figure would make sense. It would perfectly represent the face of Catholicism in a globalised world. But there are good reasons to think that, far from being someone from the evangelically charged developing nations, the next Pontiff might be an American. Under Benedict, the power of America in the Holy See has increased dramatically. Vatican insiders even talk about the 'American moment' in Rome.

That's that then. Marriage will change, one way or another. Progress has won. Cue lots of right-on politicians talking about how proud they are to have ushered in such a historic reform. But what about the losing side? What should those Christians who believe that marriage must by definition be a union of man and woman do now? Accept and move on, I suppose. The best response is surely not to bleat on about a sinister 'Orwellian' state. But there's another way. Since the politicians have changed the meaning of a word for political gain, perhaps Christian leaders should play the same game. They could move the definitional posts again, ditch the word marriage and talk only about 'Holy Matrimony' instead? Sounds ludicrously old-fashioned, I know. But read me out.

Friday night in Jaffa, and it’s a party. Jaffa, to the south of Tel Aviv, is where the cool kids hang, apparently — think Dalston or the meatpacking district, and add radical chic. An Israeli-Russian dude in big ironic spectacles tells me that, not far from here, they filmed scenes for the second season of Homeland. ‘So you can see how edgy it is,’ he says. He’s being sarcastic. We’re in a nice big two-floor apartment. The crowd is a mix of British foreign correspondents grumbling about their salaries, good-looking Israelis, and anguished Yanks competing to be more pro-Palestinian than each other. (‘Off the record — OK? — but Israel is effectively a terrorist state that is systematically oppressing an entire people.

'I’m spiritual, not religious' is something people say to make themselves sound interesting. It doesn’t work. What is intriguing, though, is that, according to this new survey, those who see themselves as spiritual but don’t follow conventional religion are far more likely to be mentally ill. Now, before you trolly atheists out there in webland start typing 'What a lot of crap. ... anyone who believes in God is nuts. LMFAO!!', read me out. Yes, we might have a case of chicken-and-egg here -- the chicken being mental illness and the egg being the thirst for existential understanding. Or vice-versa.  But the survey might also go to prove the value of that least trendy thing: organised religion.

Isabel makes an excellent point about Ed Miliband's One Nation spiel. It soothes political minds to talk about society rather than economics, people rather than the state, the common good rather individual utility. Voters like it, too, because globalisation and technology make many of us feel lost and alone. But it is, as Isabel says, an easy language of opposition, even a facile one. In office, reality tends to preclude such grand posturing, particularly in an economic crisis. As it happens, last night I went to an interesting Centre for Social Justice lecture by Jon Cruddas, Labour's policy review chief, on the role of the state in the Good Society. Now I like Cruddas, even if he is a little too inebriated by the exuberance of his own verbosity.

Gulp. The General Synod of the Church of England has, against almost all expectations, rejected the ordination of women bishops. This seems to represent an early defeat for the incoming Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, who earlier had called on his fellow Anglicans to ‘finish the job’ and accept reform. Secularists and liberals will be baffled – just how fuddy-duddy are those members of the Synod who voted it down? Somehow there still are enough conservative evangelicals and Anglo-Caths in the Synod who are uncomfortable with the measure as it was presented. The chief controversy, it seems, was over provisions for parishes who did not want a woman bishop in charge.

So, another Old Etonian at the apex of the British establishment: Justin Welby, the Bishop of Durham, will be the next Archbishop of Canterbury. It’s sweet, in a way. All we need now is an OE named as Bank of England Governor, and David Cameron’s alma mater will have the complete power set. But it would be wrong to be too chippy about Welby’s elevation. Representatives at Number 10 actually pushed for John Sentamu, the charismatic conservative African, who had the blessing of, among others, Rod Liddle. But they got Welby instead. And why not? He seems a worthy enough choice, regardless of his 'lack of experience' as a bishop – he's a former oil executive who saw the light.