Fraser Nelson

In the Christmas special edition of The Spectator we ask various luminaries about their traditions on the day itself. For David Cameron, it's gathering the kids in bed to open presents. For Jacob Rees-Mogg it's mass at Downside Abbey then the Queen's Speech. For me, it's watching a short American film about Christmas in Britain in 1941, when the country waited for German invasion. When I heard the church bells ring in Somerset this morning, I was reminded of a passage from it:- "For the first time in history, no bells ring in England to celebrate the birth of the Saviour. No church bells are allowed to be rung in England. If they do, it will mean that the invader has come...

Anyone hoping for an inflation-linked pay rise in the new year can forget it. The only good news in today's data is that, at least it won’t be a pay cut: Britain is out of deflation – prices rose by 0.1pc year-on-year last month, according to the CPI (and were up 1.1pc on RPI). But that’s still next-to-nothing. But for those whose pay rises are not linked to inflation, it's good news. We’re in a period of reasonable growth, zero inflation – and, as a result, rising disposable household income. A pretty good scenario, and one that is expected to last – and, thanks to a new graph system we’re trialling, we can show how it is expected to last. And the user can check that we're not cherry-picking the data range: it goes right back to 1970.

Great steps have been made in open data in the last few years. Most figures for the UK economy can be found online and the creation of the Office for Budget Responsibility means that official forecasts, too, are now available. But they have not, so far, been expressed in a way that’s easy to understand. So The Spectator has come up with this dashboard, which shows historic and projected data for the main economic indicators. This is a work in progress, so please bear with us as we get through it. And please do leave any comments below. 1.Employment 2. Bank of England base rates 3. Mortgage rates (at various loan-to-value rates) 4. Inflation (CPI and RPI pch YoY) 5. Gross Domestic Product 6. Annual change in GDP 7. Disposable income 8. Households' debt-to-income ratio 9.

This evening Isabel Hardman was named Journalist of the Year by the Political Studies Association, becoming the youngest winner in the history of the awards. The judges had this to say: 'Hardman’s contribution to political journalism over the past five years has been truly impressive. The breadth of her work across both a wide range of topics and a diversity of media is complemented by a remarkable talent for providing a depth of analysis that is, without fail, clear, engaging and insightful. There can be few journalists who have made such a sustained impact, at such a young age, and in such a short space of time.

Right now, the junior doctors have public support. But that would fast change if any NHS patient died during the strike in any way that could be linked to lack of junior doctor. Even as things stand, the very threat of a strike has seen up to 20,000 NHS patients having treatment postponed. The British Medical Association has other strike dates in the diary - 8 and 16 December - but they now look less likely to go ahead. Ambulance drivers stepped back from the brink earlier this year and for the same reason: they didn't want to end up blamed for anyone's death. It had seemed that the BMA and the junior doctors were not quite as strategic in their approach.

Politically, the story was George Osborne's (wise) retreat on tax credit cuts. Economically, here's the upshot:- 1. The end of austerity: state spending is shooting up. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/FOVmc/index.html"] Everyone expected a hatchet day; instead, this was a tax-and-spend budget. Total state spending is now on the rise, and will be for the foreseeable future. The above graph shows the new spending plans (in red) and old (in blue). In his March Budget, the Chancellor was talking about a £30bn cut for public services; this fell to £18bn in his July budget and today it's £10bn. How does he manage such a retreat, while keeping to his target of a £10bn surplus in 2020? 2. Osborne's new tax raid.

Update: it's a small church and we only have a few dozen tickers left - reserved for subscribers. One of the MANY benefits of subscribing! Join us now. The nights are drawing in, and mini santas are already in the shops. For Coffee Housers who do their Christmas planning early, I'd like to extend an invitation: to The Spectator’s annual carol concert on 9 December – my favourite event of the year. Details are here. If you’re into London’s gorgeous Wren churches and Rutter-style choral arrangements then it’s a must. We serve up mulled wine and mince pies afterwards, then adjourn to the pub. When I first joined The Spectator this was just advertised as an evening of carol singing. 'You can rely on The Spectator to be in good voice!

The Spectator: if you’re a princess with only space for one magazine in your royal helicopter, accept no substitutes. The Duchess of Cambridge certainly doesn’t. As the above picture shows, she has insisted on the new edition tucked safely in the door of the helicopter (you can see it peeking out in the corner). She's in for a treat – there's certainly plenty to read this week. Nick Cohen and Charles Moore put Jeremy Corbyn, leader of HM’s Most Loyal Opposition, through the shredder Douglas Murray writes the cover story about France’s civil war, and why Francois Holland said he’s fighting the enemy ‘inside and outside’.