Fraser Nelson

We host a lot of events at The Spectator but we've just held our favourite: the readers' tea party. About 200 subscribers come to the back garden for tea and cakes to meet our writers, our editors and each other. T-Sticks supplied the tea, H. Forman & Son the food and Taki brought along a bottle of Lagavulin for those in the mood for something stronger. The thrill, for us in 22 Old Queen St, is meeting the people that we spend our working lives thinking about. It's difficult to imagine a typical Spectator reader because they don't really exist: this afternoon, for example, I met a policeman, a mathematician, a specialist in Chinese antiquities, a joiner and and a taxi driver.

This morning, The Spectator held a series of discussions about the future of Conservative welfare reform, chaired by Andrew Neil and made possible by the sponsorship of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. It was a sell-out invent with a stellar panel, and we’ll bring you the full reports later. But I thought it worth mentioning what our keynote speaker, Iain Duncan Smith, had to say about tower blocks and the work capability assessments made notorious in the film I, Daniel Blake. There are 4,000 tower blocks in Britain which the former Work & Pensions Secretary says represent an "architect-led" planning mistake. "Tower blocks, by and large, are not part of the housing culture of the United Kingdom.

Theresa May has made a far better offer to EU nationals, saying they will be granted permanent residence after staying five years. But the EU has not. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has said that her offer is 'below our expectations and risks worsening the situation for our citizens'. He wants the European Court of Justice to have authority over the UK government in policing its pledge to EU citizens. Theresa May has ruled out any ECJ authority saying, quite rightly, that the Brexit vote was a move to end all that. So where now? Joseph Muscat, the prime minister of Malta which holds the rotating EU presidency, warned of the danger of 'pitfalls', in which people were 'treated differently' depending on when they arrived in the UK.

Should it be Boris? He was twice elected mayor of a Labour city and if the Tory mission is to stop Jeremy Corybn, surely you need someone charismatic to see off a populist. Then again, David Davis is a dependable caretaker, a bruiser who can hold the line on Brexit. Or why not skip a generation? There’s the articulate Priti Patel and the accomplished Dominic Raab. And to make this party go with a bang, why not ask Michael Gove to be someone’s campaign manager? He’ll change his mind on the day and then: pow! They’ll all form a circular firing squad, like last time, and whoever’s left standing wins. To their credit, the Conservatives recognise their capacity for self-destruction.

You can see why Theresa May locked her Chancellor up in a cupboard during the general election campaign. Not only was his credibility shot in his bungled Budget, where he seemed not to realise that his plan to raise National Insurance violated the manifesto upon which he was elected, but he’s now still seeking to undermine his colleagues on Brexit. The UK position is clear: yes, we’d like a good deal with the EU but if one is not forthcoming then we’d walk away and use the default World Trade Organisation rules. Hardly a leap into the unknown; the WTO rules govern the UK trade with our largest single partner, the United States. And the guidelines have already been guaranteed.

“Burn neoliberalism, not people” said Clive Lewis in a tweet showing the skeleton of Grenfell Tower. Odd words from a Labour MP. When asked just what he meant, he explained that his 'agenda' is to 'end not just the current government but Thatcherite economic dogma'. In this way the grief and anger after the Grenfell Tower disaster has been moulded into a march on No10 with chants of 'May must go' and 'blood, blood, blood on your hands'. Just a few days ago, John McDonnell was calling for a protest march in Westminster. Now, he has got one. https://twitter.

British government may not be strong and stable but the economy is still the most formidable job creating machine in Europe. And while it's certainly true that much of the rise in employment is down to immigration, British unemployment is also down – figures today show the lowest level since 1975. My old friend Simon Nixon writes in the Times today about Britain becoming the new basket case of Europe, and has been making similar noises since the Brexit vote. He may well he right, but so far this basket is carrying more jobs than at any time in history. Don't expect the Tories to make this point: they've been out to lunch since the Brexit vote, and barely mentioned the economy in the campaign.

After a fairly disastrous general election campaign, Tim Farron has quit as leader of the Liberal Democrats. You can see why: he wanted to pose as the champion of Remain yet for for the first few weeks he seemed unable to move the conversation beyond his views on gay sex and marijuana. His attempt to rekindle the Brexit wars was a complete flop. The LibDems are an unlikely alliance of evangelical Christians and social liberals, and Farron's appointment embodied a clash that the media delighted in exposing. He said, today, that has decided that the two are impossible to reconcile: "I have found myself torn, living as a faithful Christian and leading a political party in the current environment.

Well, this is going well. As the Tories pretend that all will be well under a reprogrammed Maybot, the expectations outside SW1 are rather different. Let's say someone moves against her, the other candidates start to move too – and before you can say Boris the party has formed another circular firing squad. What happens? What if the Tories can't keep it together and there's another general election? The bookies have decided: Jeremy Corbyn is more likely than anyone else to succeed Theresa May. Now the bookies get things wrong almost as regularly as pollsters, but expectation matters a lot in politics – and business. If most Tories think Corbyn is close to power, then this explains their good behaviour.

The reshuffle might be over, but the government is still changing shape. It has emerged that George Bridges has quit as a Brexit minister. He was highly rated by David Davis, his erstwhile boss, and had established himself as one of the most able ministers in the government – precisely the sort of person they can’t really afford to lose at this time. So why has he walked out now? We are only given a diplomatic answer: he’d been contemplating moving on for some time, and it seemed like a good time. If this rationale sounds familiar it’s precisely the formula that Katie Perrior deployed when she quit as Theresa May’s communications chief after just nine months in the job.

Only one Cabinet member – Chris Grayling – had a good word to say about Theresa May and even he waited hours to say it. The silence of the others underlines the scale of trouble that the Prime Minister is in with her own party after blowing its majority in pursuit of a personal mandate. If she had won a landslide (which seemed to be there for the taking), she wanted to make it a very personal landslide, asking people to ‘vote for me’ rather than her party. As I say in my Daily Telegraph column today, the defeat must now be owned by her personally. And the silence of her Cabinet is intended to let her dwell upon this fact: she shut most of them up during the campaign, hoping to personalise the glory of victory. They now want her to personalise the misery of defeat.

Extraordinary results for the Conservatives in Scotland, where the party – under Ruth Davidson’s leadership rather than Theresa May’s – is doing extraordinary well taking 13 seats. Alex Salmond, former Scottish First Minister, has just lost to to a Conservative in Gordon.  So has Angus Robertson who is the SNP leader in Westminster. Overall, the expectations are that the SNP will lose 20 of their 59 seats - the unionists had hoped to deprive them of ten at most, and would have settled for five. Amongst the many sentences I never thought I would type, I can add this: Scotland seems to is the only bright spot for the Tories, so bright that Scotland might well end up imposing a Tory government upon England.

The pound has plunged sharply on the exit poll, as markets start to come to terms with the idea that Theresa May might have blown it. It's 1.7 per cent down against the dollar, 1.8 per cent against the Euro - expect those gains to deepen if tonight's results confirm the results of the exit poll. For a simple reason: Theresa May asked for a general election to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations. If the public refuses to do so, she will be hugely weakened in the biggest negotiation that any Prime Minister has had to undertake. If, indeed, she survives long enough to undertake it - which is by no means certain if she does worse than David Cameron managed to do against Ed Miliband.

  After the 9/11 attacks, Tony Blair traced the jihadi menace to the problem of ungoverned spaces, like Afghanistan. In her speech after the London Bridge attacks today, Theresa May used similar language to describe cyberspace. “We cannot allow this ideology the safe space it needs to breed,” she said. “Yet that is precisely what the internet and the big companies that provide internet-based services provide”. What could she have in mind? Not the dark web: that’s notorious but it's beyond the (current) ability of government to regulate or remedy.

When the Conservatives were rebranded “Theresa May’s team” and the party's name purged from its literature, there were two explanations. One, that the UK system of Cabinet government doesn’t suit the Prime Minister, so wants an election where she’d campaign by diktat in order to govern by diktat. She'd go fetch a three-figure majority, then her Cabinet meetings would be a bit like the Spitting Image sketch about vegetables (above). The other explanation was more plausible, and benign: that her personal approval ratings were the highest recorded for any Prime Minister so it made sense for the Tories to campaign on the leader.

We’ve just had our pre-election meeting at The Spectator, and agreed the usual drill for the big night. Election day itself is dead: we relax and steel ourselves for the evening. There'll be the normal 8.30pm curry as we wait for the exit poll and we'll lay on some wine (and desk space) for contributors who'll be near our Westminster office. Katy Balls will stay up late – that’s how she likes it – and I’ll try to grab some sleep early and come into the office for 2.30am. Katy, James Forsyth and Tom Goodenough will do the night shift; Will Heaven, John O’Neill and I will do the early morning shift. We’ll record a podcast after the 10pm exit poll, which we probably won't need to revise because they're usually right.