Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.
From our UK edition
Word is that Cameron will attempt the speech of his life without notes or autocue. Critics said his 2005 noteless speech was no better than many stage actors could do - but that was a short one. This will be an hour long. Dare he? We'll see soon enough.... PS: His aides say he will be carrying cards, to jog his memory if needed. But otherwise, flying solo. An incredibly, almost recklessly bold move.
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Samantha Cameron has risen even further in my estimation by declining to spend the week in Blackpool. She showed up on Sunday, to provide the main photo-shoot, then worked Monday and Tuesday in London arriving late last night and turning up at Les Hinton's packed reception. Her husband, as far as I can work out, hasn't attended one reception. There was a late rewrite of a major section of his speech last night, and an exhausted Danny Kruger (main speechwriter) turned up for breakfast as I was leaving at 10am looking like he hadn't been to bed. Mind you, I look that way too and I slept a whole five hours last night.
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The Tories don't like to be beside the seaside. Or, more specifically, I'm assured this is the last time they will choose a coastal resort for their conference; which means that--God willing--this will be the last time I see Blackpool. A colleague is already in bed with food poisoning. I have heard three separate stories about people finding blood stains in their hotel. Bring on Manchester.....
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Guido has been having fun at the conference here, and has caught wind of what’s in Cameron's speech tomorrow. It squares with the gossip here.
From our UK edition
The mood at the conference has switched from despair to optimism. I traced it to Osborne's speech but Emily Maitlis reckons it turned about midday. Anyway it was still buzzing at 2am this morning when yours truly retired. The upbeat mood is set to continue. If conference liked Hague socking it to Brown, then Fox will do the same today—and Brown's trip to Iraq may serve only to give him a better backdrop. I hear the good doctor (and a former Major in the Army medical corps when he was seconded there) has been around the Tory constituency AGMs practising a line: the Brown's conference speech had one words on Iraq and Afghanistan for every four people who died in the conflict. Expect more smiles here in Blackpool.
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Team Osborne (regular, if anonymous Coffee House visitors) call to take issue with my earlier blog. I am not right to say non doms will pay more than 50% tax rate, they say, because the £100k average annual earning figure does not include offshore earnings. They estimate the de facto tax rate will be much lower. (They don’t specify, but I get the feeling they mean 20% or so) Previous “what if” studies on milking the non doms, have estimated that 20% would leave after a crackdown. Crucially, Osborne calculates his tax is benign enough that no one will actually do so. Non doms, he says, believe that £25k is a price worth paying for an assurance that the tax man will not hunt down their worldwide income.
From our UK edition
For a party facing certain defeat at the next election, these Tories are strikingly upbeat. Osborne's speech has put lead in their pencil, they sense—to use a phrase—that the über modernisers have been slain and the focus now is about lower taxes, Conservative values and none of this "nasty party" stick they have taken from the platform for years. Osborne has teed up conference perfectly for Cameron, on whom everything now rests.
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Steve Richards has just asked Osborne what he meant by "über modernisers" in his interview with me last week. Here's his answer. "Some people who had urged modernisation on the party, not necessarily Conservatives, pick us up the moment we talk about law and order or other crucial issues.... We're accused of lurching to the right. I think that's rubbish, and that's what I was saying in the interview." I never had Polly Toynbe down as a Tory moderniser, but there you go....
From our UK edition
I'm sitting in a George Osborne fringe event, where he's being given the Parky treatment by Steve Richards from the Indy. He's discussing his new tax on the non domiciles: a £25,000 annual charge. Won't this turn them away, asks Richards. No, Osborne replies, the average non dom earns £100,000 he says, so £25k ain't much to them. But as he'll know, the average non dom pays £26k in tax, so this Tory idea would push their tax burden over 50%, which I doubt these highly mobile folk will suffer. His speech was excellent, though, and lifted spirits in the hall no end.
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Unlike the Labour conference, there is a bookshop here in Blackpool (what does that tell you?) and I have found a gem: The Little Book of Boris. It's one of those compendiums Iain Dale edits, a collection of the man's greatest aphorisms. Boris's genius is splitting people's sides, or making a devilishly complex point, in two sentences. No one does it better and any aficionado of the BoJo patter will find this a splendid stocking filler.
From our UK edition
The ice-breaker at the bars in Bournemouth during the Labour conference was “when will the election be?” Here in Blackpool, the conversation starter is “is it over for Cameron?” But unlike previous Tory mutinies I’ve witnessed, it’s being asked from concern, not malice. No one wants him gone. There’s encouragement at the tougher line he’s adopted in the last few weeks, and no one can name any plausible successor. I've yet to meet anyone who thinks the party has even an outside chance of winning an early election, though.
From our UK edition
Great to see Hezza back in the saddle, talking about the plight of British cities. But I'm not sure I agree with his analysis. The main problem, which he did not mention in his speech, is that in Manchester, Glasgow, Liverpool and (yes) Blackpool, one in four is claiming out of work benefits. No wonder social decay follows. The answer is to empower people by ending dependency, not empowering inept, spendthrift local authorities.
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William Hague has been given the task of Brown baiting. His speech went quite well until this bit: "After ten years of failure and disappointment, he cannot be the change the country needs." There's something strange about hearing this Ghandi 'be the change' patter put into Hague’s mouth. As I suspect he knows, the public want politicians to enact change not purport to embody it. And this preference for "I am" rather than "I will" is what Cameron must reverse over this conference.
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Given that David Cameron has given himself a tiny fund for tax cuts, I'm not at all convinced that cutting stamp duty should be his priority. Are first time buyers really going to think "I'll vote Tory to save 1% off my home" when the flux of the housing market can take values up or down by this amount on a weekly basis? It simply serves to underline the paucity of the offering. I hope the proposals get better this week.
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Just six weeks ago, David Cameron was enthusing to friends about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s speech to the Conservative party conference. The governor of California had been on the phone, saying how much he was looking forward to visiting Blackpool. It turned out that Schwarzenegger knew what he was in for, having toured England’s seaside towns during the bodybuilding pageants of his youth. Then, a fortnight later, he had mysteriously become too busy, and the supposedly relished visit was — well — terminated. It is a fair bet that a British opinion poll found its way to Sacramento. When Mr Cameron first wrote to the governor, the Tories were ten points ahead.
From our UK edition
A new map hangs in George Osborne’s office, showing the latest parliamentary boundaries for the next general election. It could have been designed to soothe the nerves of a Conservative party election co-ordinator, for it is dominated by Tory blue. A few tricks have been used to achieve this optical illusion. There is no Scotland, for example, and marginal Labour seats are painted a faint red. But overall the picture is of a Conservative country, and an election which is eminently winnable. This is how Mr Osborne sees it — and not, he insists, just to keep morale up. ‘Although I never said so at the time, I went into previous general elections I was involved in — 1997, 2001 and 2005 — with a sense of foreboding,’ he says.
From our UK edition
I loved the Fink’s tracing of passages in Brown’s speech back to those of American politicians. But why stop at rhetoric? Brown’s policies are burgled from America too. He used to go to America for ideas in the way that Colleen McLaughlin goes there for clothes. Tax credits were a Clinton device. Sure Start nursery centres are a (failed) copy of Head Start. Even New Labour as a title apes the New Democrats. He bills his international aid package as a Marshall Plan. His Youth Volunteering is explicitly modelled on Americorps. The only thing which isn’t American is his tax burden.
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My interview with George Osborne in tomorrow's Spectator has caused much interest, particularly his contrasting of himself with the "uber modernisers". This phrase has travelled so fast that a Cabinet member I just met for coffee in Bournemouth had already heard it. "A split story right before conference," he grinned. "Just what they need. Osborne doesn't just acknowledge a faction, but christens one". Not quite fair. It was hardly a coded attack on Cameron, whom he heaped praise on. George was just stating the obvious, making it refreshingly clear where he personally stands in a party which is openly in the middle of a policy debate. Such candour isn't heard very often in politics. Perhaps this is why.
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Much discussion over what Ed Balls meant when he said that the “gamble” was to delay the election, not hold it now. What could he mean? The only interpretation being given is that he thinks his chances of winning will increase from the 11% lead of today. But I’d like to offer another one. Can you see Brown in November 2011 on a podium at a conference pledging to lead Britain until 2015 or 2016? Nor can I. I suspect that this master strategist knows this, and knows he has only one election in him. He’ll have seen from Blair what happens when that election is won. One’s authority collapses. So to go early would curtail his time in power: the gamble is on longer power, but a later election.
From our UK edition
When I zipped through security, I knew something was up. The conference here is almost dead. The normal buzz of a Tuesday has vanished, even if Brown's up for a soft focus Q&A with Mariella Frostrup tomorrow few are hanging around to see it. Alan Johnson's NHS speech was underwhelming. David Miliband's speech was full of Blair-style verbless sentences, which made me feel rather nostalgic. But has divided the audience between those who found it odd, and those who saw in him the next leader. But 11 point Labour lead in YouGov's poll has moved the gossip at the conference on to one topic - what will Cameron do now? How will he recover? His mission is to make "fightback" rather than "mutiny" the motif at Blackpool.