Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.
From our UK edition
I hear on the grapevine that Darling will tomorrow announce a "review" of inheritance tax. If so, Brown again risks derision about his claim to be a "conviction politician". In the long run, it's worse to be seen as a flip flopper than a tax grabber.
From our UK edition
Every time I’ve stood in a queue waiting for these No10 press conferences, the chat is usually “he’s really screwed now.” We’re usually disappointed. Same this time. This was neither the triumph nor the crucifixion many had predicted. Here’s my summary. 1) No speech: Blair would always start his hour-long press conferences with a little speech - using the focus of 24-hour News. Brown didn't. A reminder of how unsure he still is on TV. 2) Whodunnit?? "My first instinct, if I were honest with you, was that I wanted to get on with putting my vision of the country across... but I did listen to people". Ah, the dastardly others. He later named his Home Secretary as one of them. 3) The cock crows: Three times, he disowned his advisers.
From our UK edition
It’s always a pleasure to hear Will Hutton on the radio, the perfect antidote to the idea that the battle in politics is over. He justified inheritance tax on the basis that “society” deserves a slice of other people’s savings: of course, he meant the government. To me, the dividing line is between society and the government. On the one hand, communities – people doing the best for their families and neighbours: on the other, the looters – mistrustful of the public and hungry for the fruits of their labour. David Cameron stood up for society last week and it shook Labour to the core. As he says, there is such a thing as society – it’s just not the same thing as the state. The public is well up for this debate.
From our UK edition
Now the Brown fight back begins. I hear tomorrow he will announce plans to accept 500 Iraqis as asylum seekers, thus helping the translators. Generous? Not if you consider that 1,550 immigrants settle in Britain each day, and that 520 Iraqis work for the Ministry of Defence. And what about Bosnian and Afghan staff? We'll have to keep a very close eye on his announcements in the next few days.
From our UK edition
The Marr-Brown interview made me realise Brown wasn't ready for this election either. His claim that the Tory inheritance tax proposal would have "led to economic disarray" is laughable and would have perished on the doorsteps. Yet, he will--"of course"--look at inheritance tax again (expect him to raise the threshold, copying the Tory policy). He says he does "not accept" that he will take a hit for this fiasco. He'd better not read an opinion poll for the next few weeks, then.
From our UK edition
This is Brown's Black Saturday. He could have won even on these polls, but it would have been a fight rather than a massacre. And this is what he balked at. He has shown himself to be a graduate of the Scooby Doo school of conflict: he saw danger, yelped "yikes" and skedaddled. Fleet Street will not forget this in a hurry.
From our UK edition
Adam Boulton, political editor of Sky News, is famously fair minded. That makes his verdict on Brown simply devastating. He has just described this as "one of the worst blows to a serving prime minister that I can remember in quarter of a century of covering politics." He blames the debacle on Brown's advisers. "If I was giving him any advice tonight it would be ‘sack the lot of them’”. And he's hiding away while Ming and Cameron are taking questions. "It's not leadership as most people will understand it." This is just a nuclear bomb.
From our UK edition
Why did Gordon Brown call off the election? The News of the World, where I am a columnist, tells us tomorrow. It is the only newspaper to have polled in the marginal seats (a horribly expensive process) and the results exposes the type of information which Brown has been chewing over. The results are devastating. There is a six-point Tory lead in the marginals – yes, a six point Tory lead: 44% to 38%. It suggests that, if Brown did go, he’d lose his majority. Labour would still be the biggest party, with 306 seats to the 246 for the Tories. It also confirms what ministers told me anecdotally: that Labour voters are less likely to turn out in November. When asked, 59% said they’d go to the polls against 71% of Tories.
From our UK edition
Gordon Brown has called off the election. He may appear on Andrew Marr tomorrow to tell us why. I am in a rather unusual position here - I can tell you why, but not until 4.45pm. Stay tuned.
From our UK edition
For a party still facing defeat at the next general election, the Conservatives left Blackpool feeling remarkably upbeat. ‘It’s the spirit of Gallipoli,’ said a veteran of William Hague’s election campaign. ‘They’re united against Brown,’ mused one shadow Cabinet member. Neither image is quite right. This was no deluded optimism, no awestruck reaction to David Cameron’s speech. The mood at the conference had changed long before he stood up on Wednesday. Something had gone badly right. The week started with the party in a murderous mood, with talk at the candidates’ party centring on who would replace the evidently doomed Mr Cameron.
From our UK edition
If there is a snap election, I suspect the resurgent Scottish National Party's television campaign will look something like this...
From our UK edition
If there is a snap election, I suspect the resurgent Scottish National Party's television campaign will look something like this...
From our UK edition
Ben Brogan's blog makes available to the punter the kind of lobby corridor gossip which I'd have given my right arm to be privy to when I was a press gallery minnow. He's one of the best informed in the place - so when he rules out an autumn election, it's significant. His rationale makes perfect sense to me. Yes, Brown would take some stick for bottling it, but this won’t have much traction outside the Westminster village and the whole affair will be forgotten by Christmas. Plus his aides want to get stuck into the Tory non dom tax proposal (I agree that the figures don’t stack up, not that anyone will care) and there is a hugely emotive (albeit disproven) leftist argument against the Wisconsin-style welfare reform which Cameron is courageously pledging.
From our UK edition
It's 7pm and the Channel 4/YouGov poll is out: Lab40, Tory36, LibDem13. Now, 40% isn't bad for Labour - but a lead that’s shrunk from 11 points to 4 emphasises the volatility of polls in an era where party identification and tribal loyalties have never been weaker. We must factor in the post-conference bounce, so the "real" Labour lead is probably 7 points - but less in the marginals. If Brown goes next week, the bar is high for him: he needs to do better than Blair. A reduced majority will be emasculating, and he risks losing his majority. What a plonker he'd look. But then again - will the Tories be more beatable in a year or two years' time? I suspect not. So he has to make a gamble. And for a hesitant chap like Brown, the decision will be excruciating.
From our UK edition
I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that the Channel Four/YouGov poll has Labour's lead reduced to four points. The last YouGov poll (for the Telegraph) had a Labour lead of 11 points. Given the margin of error in these polls, that takes us into reduced majority territory for Brown. The phrase "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" springs to mind. The results will be here at 7pm. Crucial for Cameron not to let the momentum slip. He must start campaigning now as if the election had already started. It is time to start spelling out family and education plans. As James said, Brown is at his worst when he's rattled. If the poll rumours are right, he must campaign all the way into next week when Brown's parliamentary onslaught will start.
From our UK edition
The Tories have issued a document defending their plan to pay for the £3.5bn cost of their inheritance tax cut by taxing non dom. Still, the only source they can cite for their claim there will be 150,000 non doms to tax is Accountancy Age magazine. That's because there is no reliable data: the Tories and the Treasury are fighting each other by stabbing in the dark. No one knows how many non doms there are, how much they earn or how many would skedaddle if asked to give £25k a year to a Tory government. I’m relaxed about funding inheritance tax cuts, though. The state will take £553bn this year – savings can be found elsewhere. It's a tough topic. But we’re all richer thanks to the phenomenal wealth created, and tax paid, by the City.
From our UK edition
Hilariously, Labour is briefing that Gordon Brown did not watch Cameron's speech. I suspect they wouldn't be saying that if Dave had bombed. The more people I speak to, the greater the reception seems to be. George Osborne was joking that he should photograph and frame yesterday's papers, the best he'd see in a while. Tomorrow's may be just as good for Cameron. PS Cameron now sitting a few seats down from me on the train in goat class. Letwin in first. Correction: Though Letwin told me he was going to First ("It is a business trip") he ended up sitting behind Cameron when the leader took his place in cattle class. Second is the new first, Oliver.
From our UK edition
Cameron has just given the speech of his life, and celebrated by wasting no time getting out of Blackpool. Like me, he took a cab out of the conference straight after the speech and headed for Preston. He's standing on platform six, smiling broadly, with Sam beside him. His aides are huddled ten feet away, giving him space. He's just pulled this off, and I suspect he knows it.
From our UK edition
2:15pm Cameron comes out to a rapturous reception. He tells the audience this might be a messy as he’s got no autocue, Cameron unspun. Fraser emails in:I notice all the shadow cabinet on stage. This is part of their strategy to show the Tories are a team, where Labour is a one man Brown band. Cameron announces to us that he has no notes "so it might be a bit messy but it will be me". Subtext 'unlike that control freak brown, imagine him doing this eh?' And I love the reference to Thatcher's long march to freedom, a reference to the Nelson Mandela biography of the same name. 2:20pm Cameron is tying the party into the project; paying tribute to it for the increased number of women candidates, its campaigns on the environment and the like. Sayeeda Warsi gets a generous name check.
From our UK edition
I've never felt an atmosphere quite like this in a party conference. The press pack is silent, waiting for Cameron to come on. Its like we're waiting for a tightrope act with no safety net where the artist could triumph, or perish. Anyway, so much for the promised 2.00pm start. And in wallks Cameron, as promised with no podium and no autocue. Notes left on a desk, there for emergencies. No one can deny the man's got balls.