Fraser Nelson

“I really want the Conservatives to win the next election because…” A few CoffeeHousers have offered some endings to the above sentence, and I’d like to offer the bribe of a bottle of champagne for the best entry. One rule (sorry, Tiberius) it can’t just be “because Brown is a villain” etc - it has to be a way in which the Tories would change Britain for the better: a reason to look forward to Cameron arriving, not just to Brown departing. So far, Oz says the Tories will be cheaper and “do it for 99p against Labour's pound” – that’s the idea, but not quite an agenda to set the heather alight, as we say in the Highlands.

As Matt suggested, I’m getting some stick from Tories here in the Commons – mainly ones who have just seen today’s Spectator cover (Peter Brooke’s brilliant cartoon of Cameron about to be run over a bus) and asking if I’ve gone all Brutus. Quite the reverse. I merely sought to dangle regicidal Tories over the precipice and ask them to look down. Yes, things are grim. The Thames is still rising, the Daily Telegraph has a horrible poll tomorrow and the markets are crashing. But there are a few reasons for Tories to be cheerful:- 1. The Daily Mail is getting bored being so supportive of Brown, and its leader today has put him on notice.

It was almost like David Cameron was being bullied by the Commons today. When he stood up, all MPs cheered – the kind of sarcastic cheer they normally reserve for Ming Campbell. When he mentioned the floods and “people in this country are discussing this issue” an almighty laugh went up saying “what would you know, you were inspecting Rwandan latrines yesterday.” When Cameron spoke about Europe, the Labour MPs roared with approval saying “we’ve forced you to lurch to the right. Game over”. Overall it was bad for Cameron – even Ming Campbell mocked him. His ill-judged Rwandan trip stopped him venting fury on behalf of submerged Middle England which he should have done.

Beneath the dynamic surface, Brown is dismantling Blair’s public service reforms When ministerial limousines line Great Smith Street in Westminster it is normally a sign that the Cinnamon Club is doing brisk trade. This upmarket Indian restaurant has become so popular with MPs that it has wired up a division bell in its foyer to tell them when to vote. But last Wednesday evening the attraction lay in the building opposite, where the Trades Unions Congress was holding its summer reception. Inside, newly promoted ministers and unionists were gladhanding each other like old friends. Gordon Brown was, naturally, the star attraction.

What today’s polls say to me is “early election”. If Brown keeps this up into the recess, his honeymoon will stretch through the summer. Remember, the Tories need a ten-point lead to win an overall majority. I’ve been amazed how much ammunition Brown is discharging. He could have announced Super Casinos in the autumn. He seems to be in a sprint, not a marathon. Perhaps because he knows the finish line of this parliament is not too far away.

Reading the blogosphere must often be a frustrating business for David Cameron. But I gather a more supportive site is on the way. Fiona Melville, a member of his leadership campaign who left the party just two months ago, is working on a website which my sources tell me will have a “modern liberal Conservative view”. I hear “Platform Ten” is its working title. A Cameroon loyalist website? It’s not funded by CCHQ, although the people involved are certainly former staffers and ex-Tory candidates. And I gather, Steve Hilton himself initiated this project seeking an alternative to ConservativeHome, which has been a little too effective at reflecting the unhappiness of many grassroots Tory activists with the Cameron leadership.

Some thoughts on the Brown statement… 1. Cameron’s response was very good. He had varied intonation and passion – while Brown's stutter got steadily worse as he read his constitutional proposals out like a Budget-style shopping list. I fancied I saw Cameron’s hands shake a little as he faced Prime Minister Brown for the first time - but his face showed no sign of nerves. For the many Conservatives with their head in their hands right now, this is a cause for optimism. 2. Cameron played the Scottish card straight away. He can’t vote on schools in Brown’s constituency, so why should Brown and Scottish MPS decide English policy (Scots swung the university top-up fees vote, and the foundation hospital vote).

Some thoughts on the Tory reshuffle… 1. This was described to me as an “election footing” reshuffle. It’s the explanation why Maude has gone – he represented the pre-election phase, apparently. 2. George Osborne is given powers for election co-ordinator. He has no experience in the field, and will face a formidable challenge from Douglas Alexander who does the same role for Labour but has been obsessing over the mechanics of elections for years. 3. Pauline Neville Jones has been appointed to Shadow Cabinet, pending her nomination for a peerage. So Cameron, too, can assemble team of all the talents (but you can perhaps say he started it) 4.

Fraser Nelson says that the new Prime Minister has positioned himself in territory that the Tories have left vacant, and is ready to fight a cultural battle to defend the ‘British way of life’ and win over the C1 voters who decide elections It was a phrase that David Cameron would never dare to utter. As Gordon Brown was giving his first speech as Labour party leader in Manchester, he repeatedly pledged to defend the ‘British way of life’. This dog whistle may have been missed by his audience, and was certainly neglected by the press, but resonated in Conservative headquarters. Immigration, an issue which the Tories have dropped as a frontline issue, is now firmly on Labour’s agenda.