Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Revealed: Britain’s welfare ghettos

Rabbi Lionel Blue talks about a “moral long-sightedness” of politics – the ability to see problems thousands of miles away (in Africa) or a century away (climate change) but not the poverty in one’s own doorstep, right now. And little wonder: England is very poor at measuring just how bad things are for its poorest. For example, we know from local authority data that one in four of people are on benefits in Liverpool. But that’s an amalgam of rich and poor areas. The welfare ghettos – areas where entire streets are on incapacity benefit – have been obscured. Until now.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

This was the Budget of a man trapped by the terrible profligacy of his predecessor

It says much about Alistair Darling’s predicament that he used his first Budget to win back a title once used to insult him — being the most boring man in British politics. His office had promised there would be no false scents, no attempts to deceive, no ‘rabbits pulled out of the hat’. The magician himself may have moved next door to 10 Downing Street — but the small print of the Budget exposed the extent of the damage wreaked before he left. Not since Lord Howe of Aberavon moved to the Treasury in 1979 has a Chancellor inherited a worse situation. Like most countries, Britain has enjoyed an economic upturn in recent times.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Shannon Matthews found alive

I passed two Evening Standard vendors shouting out the news that Shannon Mathews has been found alive - even though it's not in the newspaper. One was listening on his radio. I saw the other stop passers-by to tell them. This story probably eclipses all the politcial news of the last year put together. People who never listen to the political news if they can help it (ie, most of the public) will listen to this. That's why it's so shrewd of David Cameron to get out reaction quickly, with good quote, thus becoming part of this mammoth story. He told reporters in Gateshead:  "So often in these cases, you wait and you wait and then you hear tragic and awful news. All of us were thinking that was maybe what might happen and it is great that she is alive.

Fraser Nelson

Carry On Recruiting

Aside from the Chinese Red Army and Indian Post Office, the NHS is the world's largest employer with 1.3m staff. Government attempts to trim this unwieldy, inefficient behemoth are pathetic. We today learn that the NHS total staff fell by under one percent over the last year. The Tories are up in arms. "The Government can spin this as much as they like" says Andrew Lansley. But yes, you guessed it, he's angry the staff role is not going up. "The fact is that we have fewer health visitors, ambulance staff and the total number of NHS staff has declined by 14,500." Can CoffeeHousers help me out here: how would the NHS (as opposed to the BMA) benefit from a Conservative Government?

Fraser Nelson

Family-friendly politics

The urgency behind the “family friendly” agenda - which is to be the theme of the Tories’ spring conference in Gateshead - can be traced to an internal opinion poll presentation delivered by Lord Ashcroft a few weeks ago. Mothers were going off David Cameron, apparently – which panicked the Cameroons not a little, as one of their favourite boasts was that women liked the Cameron/Osborne duet while considering Brown a clunking great fist. Queue panicked policy production: that declaration that they’d claim back the playgrounds from the yobs, and today headlines about six months of fathers’ leave. There will more of this stuff, I’m told, until Ashcroft’s poll improves – and this is the central objective of the Gateshead spring conference.

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

A pint will cost £6.47 by 2012

The Sun’s Budget coverage today spells out the real-life impact of yesterday’s tax increases. Darling’s booze taxes grow with time and by the 2012 Olympics a pint will cost £6.47. Its case studies “Why you benefit if you’re on benefits” has a brilliant example of a £14k-a-year call centre worker who, outrageously, is £266 a year worse off thanks to the PBR measures which will come into force next month. Kelvin MacKenzie explains the lunacy – and the typographical error – behind this strange jihad on plastic bags. Tom Newton Dunn starts his defence analysis by saying “Don’t be conned – an extra £2bn for defence…is a drop in the ocean.

Fraser Nelson

Getting spending down

Aside from British budget madness, as Labour and the Tories argue about how much they’d push state spending up, the rest of the world talks about getting spending down. Yesterday, the Swedish press celebrated the fact that their “expenditure reform” (why don’t we hear that phrase here?) is working so well that they have lost their status as the world’s highest-taxing country – passing this dubious honour to Denmark. By year-end, Sweden’s tax burden will be 47.8% with plans to hit 45%.

Fraser Nelson

Spinning a revolution

At 7.10am this morning, there was a prime example of why Brown may get away with posing as the champion of welfare reform. Kim Catcheside, the BBC’s social affairs correspondent, was explaining Alistair Darling’s new plans to test everyone on incapacity benefit to see what work they could do (ie, the Tory plan). Catcheside said disabled groups are worried because “at least 50,000 over three years could fail this new test.” Um, that works out at 16,700 a year, or 0.7% of the 2.6m on incapacity benefit roll, ie, an utterly meaningless reduction and ergo an equally meaningless policy. But the funding, she said, was “potentially the most fascinating thing about this”.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Say what?!

Did any Coffee Housers catch what Ed Balls said? David Cameron mentioned the huge tax burden during his budget response and Balls shouted "so what?". Or that's Cameron's version. The Secretary of State for Schools and Children now claims he said "so weak" and was referring to Cameron overall. But look at the spiralling debt, and "so what" sums up Browns attitude perfectly.

Fraser Nelson

What a difference a year makes

The below table shows how we will be paying the costs of Brown’s profligacy for years. In the space of a year, the picture has markedly worsened. This is gross government debt, in the Maastricht definition which ministers can’t tweak. UK Government gross debt, tables C4 and C5 from Budget 07 & 08   Debt, £billion Debt, %GDP   Budget 2007 Budget 2008 Increase Budget 2007 Budget 2008 2006-07 568 574 6 43.5 43.3 2007-08 611 616 5 44.

Fraser Nelson

A bundle of debt

If you’re sitting down, have a look at this government debt projection. One of my favourite parts of the Budget is the Maastricht Treaty debt, calculated under a definition the Treasury cannot wangle. Have a look at this and remember – you’re paying for it.    Debt, £billion 2006-07 574 2007-08 616 2008-09 679 2009-10 728 2010-11 771 2011-12 809 2012-13 844 Source: HM Treasury, Budget 2008, p.

Fraser Nelson

A line of cocaine is now cheaper than half a pint of cider

The biggest story in today’s Budget – ie, what will hit the public immediately – is the booze hikes. From 6pm tonight, they take effect. An extra 4p on a pint of beer, 3p on a glass of wine (touchingly, the Red Book says 175ml is typical – has anyone from the Treasury ordered a glass recently?), and 55p on a 70cl bottle of spirits. These increases will rise at 2% in future years on top on inflation (itself expected to be 2%). So, congratulations Gordon: a line of cocaine (on Dec07 street prices) is now cheaper than half a pint cider. What a wonderful country we live in. Do any CoffeeHousers know of research that suggests such prices rises actually deter drunkenness? I don't.

Fraser Nelson

A tax-raising Budget

The Red Book has arrived – and with it the magical Table 1.2, proof this is a tax-raising budget. We’ll all collectively pay the government £140m less in the next financial year 2008-09 but £790m more in 2009-10 and £1.86bn more in 2010-11. This is net increases. Here are the biggest tax rises (in the year 2008-09, unless otherwise stated) 1) Alcohol - £400m then £505m then £625m 2) Vehicle Excise Duty: £465m in 2009-10 and £735m in 2010-11 3) Biofuels: a £550m tax rise by 2010-11 4) “Double taxation treaties” - £200m 5) North Sea “fiscal regime modernisation” £25m tax cut. Sounds suspicious?

Fraser Nelson

Borrowing to soar

Darling says government will be borrowing £14bn for the four years to 2010/11 – this is £20bn more than forecast at the Pre-Budget Report in October.

Fraser Nelson

The table Darling doesn’t want you to see

As I suspect we’ll hear the claim today that the UK is somehow holding up well in the face of the global slowdown, here is a handy table showing why we the precise opposite is true and we are literally hit harder than any other OECD country.     Real GDP growth 2007 Real GDP growth - 2008 Slowdown factor 1 United Kingdom 3.1 1.7 44.9% 2 Ireland 5.2 2.9 44.8% 3 New Zealand 3.4 1.9 43% 4 Spain 3.8 2.

Fraser Nelson

Blast from the past | 12 March 2008

Pictures have just landed of Darling holding aloft the old Gladstone budget box – ditching the new one Brown’s constituents made for him in 1997. First time we’ve seen this since Ken Clarke’s 1997 budget. Darling will want this to be symbolic of a new era – no Brown-style deceptive budgets, no tricks this time, we’re told. Funny to see Darling distancing himself from Brown in this way. Let’s see if his Budget wafts the false scent we’ve become so accustomed to expecting.

Fraser Nelson

The fictions have begun…

The Prime Minister’s Spokesman has just given the lobby a briefing – and repeating what Darling briefed the Cabinet. I hope Chancellor started his presentation with the words “once upon a time” because what followed was demonstrable fiction. Here are the main points:- 1) All the countries in the world are facing problems 2) Britain is well-placed to withstand these problems. 3) Inflation is low 4) Debt is low, by historical and international standards are low 5) Economic growth is resilient. My response: 1) There is a global credit crunch, but Britain will be amongst the worst hit by it (see point 5) 2) We would be well-placed had a surplus been built up over the fat years. Instead these is a huge deficit.

Fraser Nelson

Is the roof coming down?

Is this an omen? Those who were watching the live Sky News at 8.50am may have heard scaffolding coming crashing down above the entrance of 12 Downing Street. Needless to say, its causing much meriment in Conservative HQ. "As we have said repeatedly: Gordon Brown didn't fix the roof while the sun was shining" says one wag.

Tuesday

Fraser Nelson

Controlling the classroom

A friend is on the board of an independent school, and has been attending more than the usual amount of meetings recently. They are discussing whether the burden of government interference has become so great that they should become a profit-seeking organisation. This would be financed by stopping taking in new pupils from poor areas – a duty it the school has been proud to do since its inception. It’s all being done with a heavy heart, but the cost of the school upkeep is soaring and they fear closure. Having to obey yet more central government marching orders will not endear them to the overseas parents, on whom they are now financially dependent.

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Hammond puts his foot in it

Philip Hammond, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has just finished a pre-Budget lobby briefing, which I suspect will end in some troublesome headlines for him tomorrow for two reasons.  First, non doms. Hammond asks us to believe that the Tory non-dom tax would scare away fewer millionaires than Labour’s policy. But the Tory figures claim they’d sting non-doms for £2.8bn, four times what Labour hope to sting the non doms for (Labour will only tax those who have been here for seven years). Hammond says the non-doms prefer certainty. Presumably for newly-arrived non doms that means the certainty of getting stung for £25k under the Tories versus the certainty of not getting stung until 2015 under Labour. Next, tax.