Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is a Times columnist and a former editor of The Spectator.

A classic underclass problem?

What’s the cause of knife crime? The government has today focused on tightening laws etc. But if Charles Murray were here today, he’d see this as a classic underclass problem. He has three tests for an underclass: births outside marriage, jobless young men and violent crime. In 1997, 37% of children were born outside marriage – this is now projected to be 44.2% (strip out immigrants and it would be 50.1%). In 1997, 15% men were economically inactive (ie, not in work or seeking it). Now in spite of those 3m new jobs it is 16.5% - the highest in the history of these islands. Finally, violent crime was 650,330 in 1998/99 when the current data series began – it had soared to 1.2m by 2005/06. So Murray’s three alarm warnings are flashing red.

Brown’s “record employment”

Gordon Brown frequently asserts Britain has record employment or that Labour has “the best employment record in history” (Hansard, 16 Jan 08). In fact this honour goes to Nigel Lawson whose achievements Brown has never been able to come close to. Brown has specialised in finding alternatives to work – welfare, studenthood, etc. But here is the graph for economic activity percentage rates – ie, the proportion of people in work. It’s a strange graph because, aside from the industrial realignment of early Thatcher years, it basically oscillates between 78% and 80%. Sadly, this is not adjusted for immigration – which accounts for 82% of new jobs since 1997 according to the Statistics Commission (pdf). So how can Brown claim that he has record employment?

The rebirth of inflation

Many years ago, Roger Bootle wrote a book called 'The Death of Inflation' which was a brilliant guide to understanding the economics which were to dominate all major countries in the Brown years. We need a book called 'The Rebirth of Inflation' to explain the years ahead. Your savings strategy, property strategy and shopping trends will all be affected. The Daily Mail today unpacks energy inflation, and had the boldness to splash with this hugely important story. There are also huge questions around food inflation being asked in Rome today involving the harm inflicted by biofuels, the challenge of feeding China and India and a new look at GM food. To what extent is this inflation fuelled by lax uk monetary policy or the plunging pound?

Brown and Cameron do battle over statistics

Many CoffeeHousers have asked why Cameron doesn't lampoon Brown for using his trademark dodgy figures as per our Brownie series. Well today he did - not on economics but on vehicle excise duty. Brown said 24 of the 30 most  popular car models won't be affected. Then Cameron pounced. "once again, dodgy statistics from the PM" he said.  "In any other walk of life" he said "the trading standards officer would have him clamped in irons". Brown counts the Ford Focus as one model, disregarding the 40 variations such as saloon, estate etc. This may sound strange coming from me, but I'm not sure the stat picking worked. When you start arguing about statistics, you lose audience rapidly.

The wacky world of Lib Dem policy

I know one shouldn't take Liberal Democrat policy seriously, but I went along to their first lobby briefing today just to see. Anyone who believes Gordon Brown is detached from reality should have taken a seat as Nick Clegg and Norman Baker faced lobby journalists. It was on their transport policy, to reverse Beeching cuts with a new generation of railways as seen in, em, no other country in the world. What cost? They haven't worked that out yet. But the money would come, Baker explained, from train companies in return for even longer franchises. One problem though: train operating companies don't have money of their own other than what the taxpayer gives them - apart from Gatwick Express and a couple of others all rail franchises run at a substantial loss.

Balls’s drinking rules 

Ed Balls worries quite a lot about the shortcomings of British parents. Today, he says the state should give clearer instructions on drinking – because he has detected confused British parents crying out for instructions from our political class. “Guide us, O leaders,” they say. Here are Balls’s exact words, to Sky News this morning. “I think that parents are often saying to us that with smoking it is clear - smoking is wrong and children shouldn't smoke, on drugs the same - but with alcohol we have never ever given any clear guidance to parents.” The government’s smoking ban has, you see, finally hammered home the message to these benighted parents. But there is no similar message on booze.

The economy points to a two term Tory government

I’m now back from the recess and checking up on all the news I missed – the most striking of which seems to be how the economic stars are aligning for a Tory second term. Three things jump out:- 1. The downturn has only just begun: The political soap opera is so compelling that it’s easy to overlook that the property market is now falling faster than at any point in the 1990s. Commercial property down 16 percent and residential down 11 percent, on an annualised basis. As Britain has one of the closest links between house prices and consumer spending, you can’t say this will be isolated to the property sector. The projections for inflation are being revised upwards all the time.

‘Touch wood,’ Karzai said to me. You hear it all the time

There is something oddly soothing about going to sleep to the sound of gunfire in Kandahar airbase. The shots are fired by British troops, honing the night combat skills which achieved such success over the Taleban last winter. The fighting season was due to start four weeks ago, when the poppy harvest ended — but so far, nothing. British commanders are quietly optimistic that the Taleban has counted its 6,000 dead, learned it cannot win firefights and switched to guerrilla tactics instead. Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress. Much as the prospect may terrify visitors, the soldiers themselves are sanguine.

Purnell’s speechwriter pushed for trashing Brown

Not so long ago, James Purnell released a speech on Microsoft Word format. This excites Tory researchers, who inevitably get hold of it, as they can interrogate the document - look for any revisions and, of course, the author. The "author" of the Purnell speech was one Phil Collins, who used to do work for Tony Blair. The smarter Tories (and I include Purnell's shadow, Chris Grayling, amongst them) would have realised this is bad news. Collins is one of the more clued-up Labour people, who gets what Brown doesn't and can find a vocabulary to reach out to the people now deserting Labour in droves. So news that Collins has been sent packing, due to a disobliging (but entirely accurate) piece he wrote about Labour's current state of affairs, is truly news to cheer the Tories.

The Taliban’s changing tactics

Helmand Province, Afghanistan I have adopted the Gordon Brown strategy and disappeared after a bad by-election result for Labour. My excuse is that I’m now in Afghanistan, finding out how things are in Helmand. Afghanistan is an amazing country whose people combine abject poverty with the ability to endure weather of -20c in winter to 50c in summer. Such hardiness makes for resolute fighters, but it seems the Taliban have failed to recruit for this season. The poppy harvest ended three weeks ago, and the fighting usually starts immediately as the hired $10 Taliban” swap ploughshares for Kalashnikovs. Not this time, though. As one solider told me “the problem with the $10 Taliban is they receive $0 training and get killed.” It seems they have given up.

Beneath the radar, the Tory party is working on a strategy to win by a landslide

These are bad times for Conservatives fighting the tightest marginal seats. About a year ago they were given generous resources to help them campaign, to promote their candidates and to rubbish Labour in general. Now, the cash is drying up. Unofficially, these target seats are being designated as ‘in the bag’ and the money instead is being diverted to constituencies that, pre-Cameron, were regarded as utterly unwinnable. No one in Conservative headquarters is calling it by its name — to do so would court the lethal charge of complacency — but what is being discreetly developed is nothing less than a landslide strategy. This explains the energy with which the Crewe by-election was fought.

No more need to worry about Labour’s long term plans

I am now in sunny Afghanistan, where we woke up to the Crewe result. This puts thing into a new perspective. It's becoming rapidly clear that we need not worry about the many long-term plans of this government (abolish A-Levels, reform pensions, identity cards and the like). But what of the commitment to Iraq and Afghanistan once Labour is gone? Liam Fox has spoken of the need to either spend more or deploy less.  We're still waiting to find which is to be the Tory answer.

Basra, a city filled with hope

Basra, Iraq Two years ago when Des Browne came here they wouldn’t let him out of the car. Now, he can do a walkabout in downtown Basra. The liberation on March 25th, when the Iraqi army’s Charge of the Knights liberated the city from the Shi’ite militias, has transformed the situation here. When Prime Minister Maliki announced the Charge of the Knights, Muqtada al-Sadr mocked it as the charge of the mice. But is has turned into the biggest surprise successes of the war. Maliki is making his army’s presence felt in Basra--there are check-points with the Iraqi flag on them all over the city—and he has gone from zero to hero here. British troops are back on the streets again.

Westminster braced for a Labour massacre

Like Pete, I have picked up on hesitancy in some parts of Crewe – mainly from Tory activists who realise this is a “send Brown a message” by-election rather than a mandate for Conservatism. But a win is a win – and in Westminster, at least, Tories are expecting a mammoth victory. One Shadow Cabinet member told me his prediction and swore me to secrecy – safe to say, it was a resolutely optimistic one. “Expectations management has gone out of the window” said one senior figure in the campaign.

A YouTube kicking might help Brown

I took part in an LBC radio debate this morning about Gordon Brown’s YouTube initiative with Nick Ferrari, radio’s equivalent to a morning Bloody Mary. A LBC reporter has sent in her own question via video phone - was Blair right to think you have no chance against David Cameron? It won’t get past the censors, of course – party political content. So far 20 videos have, and I surveyed them this morning. Some literally start with Young People thanking the Dear Leader for “this brilliant opportunity” to question him on YouTube with all the authenticity of a backbencher reading a planted question at PMQs. None were about tax or immigration, the two top subjects in Britain today – but almost all were from under-35s, so perhaps this explains it.

Even the Prime Minister’s jokes are Brownies

Like Matt, I was genuinely impressed by the defrosted Gordon Brown on display at the Google conference. However - and churlish though it may be - I’d like to point out that his Einstein joke (where he swaps places with his chauffeur) is a Brownie. The genesis of this fake and oft-repeated tale is here. You may think the PM’s claim to have seen a banner saying “worldwide campaign against globalisation” is real because he used it in Jan08, Jul07, Mar07, Jan07 and Nov06 and (first) in a Newsweek article in Sep06. My guess is that he spotted this slogan not in a demo, but in an Apr00 article by William Keegan here. But it’s a good gag, and I applaud the sentiment.

The odds shorten for Purnell

I know many CoffeeHousers will take some time to forgive me for suggesting James Purnell as the best chance for Labour. But I am not alone. A rush of money on him has led Ladbrokes to make him joint second favourite to succeed Brown at 6/1. The curse of being the favourite still falls upon David Miliband at 5/2. Alan Johnson, whom the Tories fear the most, is also on 6/1. Here is the full list.

Fake Question Time

The first thought that occurs on looking at Gordon Brown’s YouTube PMQs is that Rory Bremner’s impersonation is now near-perfect. It’s a parody of himself. He says he’ll be glad to take everyone’s questions “on this exciting new initiative.” All Politics 2.0, going straight to the public without the interface of journalists or MPs. And then without pausing for breath, the Great Helmsman helpfully tells us what these questions should be. “Questions you have about how gloablisation’s working, what’s happening to climate change, how we can build the houses we need, how we can get the jobs we need for the future… I’m here to answer your questions. Politicians get a chance at Prime Minister’s Question Time.

Will NATO split over cluster bombs?

NATO is under attack from so many forces (mainly the EU wanting a common defence policy) that it’s hard to work out what will eventually break up the alliance. But the cluster bomb conference in Dublin that starts today may be the one. No one likes cluster bombs, and we’d all like to live in a world without them. But there is a difference between smart bombs and “dumb” bombs – a difference observed by the MoD, which wants to keep using its smart munitions like the M73 and M83 which self-destruct if they don’t detonate. The Foreign Office disagrees and we’re having what Lord Malloch Brown calls an “internal discussion” – i.e. a Prime Minister who can’t decide.

What all MPs should read before voting on the abortion time limit

I was reviewing the papers on the Marr sofa earlier with Jane Moore, one of my favourite columnists. Next week’s abortion vote came up, and she said she is pro-choice - but was persuaded of the need to reduce the time limit from 24 weeks to 20 weeks by a letter she received from a nurse involved in the procedure. Its contents, she told Marr, were unsuitable to be discussed on air. She later told me what it was – a description of how at 24 weeks the child is often strong enough to be alive – and then must be left to die on the side of an NHS sink until breathing his, or her, last. Jane wrote about this in a column for The Sun on 23 March 2005 and I can see why it changed her mind. It's not online, but here's an edited version.