Eugene Finkel

The US and Britain are busy with their plans to stop the war in Ukraine. President Trump is pressuring Kyiv to freeze the war, keeping the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine under Moscow’s control. In Trump’s vision, Ukraine will neither join Nato nor receive US security guarantees and will have to rely on economic cooperation with Washington as its main source of protection. At the London summit of European leaders, the British PM Sir Keir Starmer unveiled a different peace proposal, which also implies continued Russian control over occupied areas. In exchange, Ukraine is promised military support and security guarantees. Both plans are doomed to fail.

Donald Trump’s triumph in the US presidential election is seen as a tragedy for Ukraine. Trump and Ukraine certainly have a troubled history. During Trump’s first term, when he pressured president Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden, this effort led to Trump’s first impeachment. Trump’s sympathy for, indeed admiration of, Vladimir Putin is well-known. Trump and vice president-elect JD Vance claim to have a plan to swiftly end the Russian–Ukrainian war, presumably by strong arming Kyiv to cede territory to Russia and abandon its bid for Nato membership. Is Ukraine doomed and headed toward defeat and subjugation by Russia? Putin prefers fighting to a ceasefire and will likely reject any Trump proposal for a simple stop to the hostilities Likely not.

The slow-grinding Ukrainian offensive in the country’s south has forced many to accept that the war against Russia might turn out to be a prolonged conflict. But while military experts debate whether or not Ukraine can win this war, and how such a victory could be achieved, the focus on military hardware and territory has skewed the West’s approach to the war and potential solutions. Russia’s war against Ukraine war is not a territorial conflict: it is an identity war aimed at extermination. It will not and cannot be solved by territorial changes or security compromises. Just listen to Putin and take him seriously.  This week, the Russian President sent a message that was extraordinary even by the standards of Russia’s unrestrained wartime propaganda.