Ed West

After a seven year wait, the Chilcot Report has come back with some quite damning conclusions about the build-up to the 2003 invasion, and the lack of planning for post-war Iraq. I think we've certainly learned our lesson about not changing a country's entire political set up without a credible alternative in place - that will never happen again, thank God. I'm particularly interested by one note Tony Blair sent to George Bush on March 26th, 2003, a week before the invasion, in which he said the 'fundamental goal' of the war should be to create a new 'world order'. 'This is the moment when you can define international priorities for the next generation – the true post-Cold War world order.

Roger Scruton once observed, in his astute way, how important national feeling was to democracy: 'Democracy is a form of government that depends upon a national, rather than a credal or tribal idea of loyalty. In a nation state the things that divide neighbours from each other – family, tribe and religion – are deliberately privatised, made inessential to the shared identity, and placed well below the country and its well-being on the list of public duties. It is this, rather than any Enlightenment idea of citizenship, that enabled nation states so easily to adopt democracy. In a place where tribal or religious loyalties take precedence, democratic elections, if they occur at all, occur only once.

The British constitution is built on compromise and moderation; it's one of the main reasons why this country enjoyed a period of relative domination in the 19th century while our neighbours tore themselves apart. Referendums do not encourage compromise, which makes them such bitter devices, and why the last few weeks have been so painful. But now that the British people have made their choice – and I have no idea if it was the right one – we have the opportunity to make a compromise that will cause the least amount of pain. I'm talking about the Norway option, which an increasing number of Conservative MPs are coming around to. This is a half-way house between membership of the EU and separation.

My part of north London feels like the morning after England get knocked out from the World Cup. People look genuinely angry, and down the road in Islington the benevolent moral guardians of the current year have been shouting 'scum' at Boris Johnson outside his house. https://twitter.com/LBC_Charlotte/status/746260182297088001 After the most unpleasant period in British politics for years, and a sour and recriminating atmosphere now lingering, the Vote Leave team – who may be the government in waiting – have got to unite the nation to assure stability; politically, economically and mentally.

I wrote a while back that the UK referendum wouldn't be at all bitter or divisive, and I think it's fair to say I was utterly, utterly wrong. I just hope whoever wins shows a spirit of magnanimity and conciliation, and tries to steer the country to the most moderate course available. Perhaps it was obvious that this debate would turn into a sort of British culture war, one that divided the country heavily over the issue of globalisation. As James Bartholomew points out in this week's issue of The Spectator, the referendum has exposed a huge rift between the metropolitan elite and the rest.

So Austria has a new leader. The radical leftist Alexander Van der Bellen, a former Green party leader running as an independent, has just edged out radical right-wing politician Norbert Hofer in one of the closest elections in European history. After postal votes were counted, Van der Bellen had 50.2 per cent and Hofer 49.8 per cent – a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Most of the continent will probably breath a sigh of relief while still being disturbed at the size of the radical right vote; more shocking, perhaps, is the fact that among the working-class, there was almost unanimous support for Hofer, with the Freedom Party receiving 86 per cent of votes from workers.

It's safe to say that last week was a good one for the Remain camp, thanks in large part to the endorsement from President Barack Obama. Despite what people in online conservative echo chambers may believe, Obama remains fairly popular in Britain and his opposition to Brexit may well count for something. His tactic was to play on our fear of what might happen if we leave. And while leaving the EU is seen as a largely small-c conservative idea, favoured by older and less educated voters, it is paradoxically fear (that most conservative of emotions) which is driving support for Remain. https://twitter.

The flags are at half-mast in Westminster in a show of solidarity with Brussels, one of those ceremonies Europe seems to be getting used to. We’re long used to the statements of shock by politicians (why the shock?) as well as the platitudes about this having nothing to do with any particular religion. After that we have the now traditional focus of all our anger and grief towards Katie Hopkins, as if what she says or believes makes any difference to the growing problem facing Europe. Not all of Europe, of course. Central Europe, chiefly Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, remain largely safe from the terror threat, despite the former in particular being a Nato player in the Middle East.

Germany is on its feet again; the country’s answer to Ukip, Alternative Für Deutschland, made huge gains at the polls, winning a presence in three state assemblies. The shadow of Auschwitz looms over all European politics on the subject of immigration and race, but obviously more so in Germany, and many people are worried. Their growth in popularity may have something to do with the chancellor’s decision to invite one million and counting people from the wider Middle East, in an gesture historians will probably see as the grandest act of folly of early 21st century history. Some people are worried that, along with FN, Ukip and Trump, AfD are extremists who represent a threat to the established order.