Alex Massie

Alex Massie

Cameron Should Also Talk to Alex Salmond

Whither Scotland? Well, apart from Labour regaining the two seats it lost in by-elections not a single seat changed hands north of the border. Indeed there was a swing to Labour and I suspect that Brown and Jim Murphy won votes when they warned that a vote for anyone else was a de facto vote for the Conservatives. Such is life and it's remarkable how these ancient ghosts still retain the ability to spook the populace. So why should Cameron speak to Salmond? Well, because he should be able to get the SNP to at least abstain on a putative Tory budget. Cameron has already said that the Scottish government's grant will not be addressed this year (because the budget has already been agreed and passed) and that's a decent starting point for talks.

Clegg Costs Cameron Dear

OK, so the exit poll wasn't bonkers after all. And Cleggmania evaporated like so many other summer romances. But it's the Lib Dems, in many ways, not Labour who have cost Cameron his majority. Of the top fifteen Lib Dem held targets, the Tories seem to have won just five. Doubtless the Lib Dems were helped by a measure of tactical voting but also, of course, the reality that in many of these constituencies voters could as easily reject Labour by voting Liberal as by voting Conservative. The haggling here was over the details of change, not its necessity. And now, with few hard feelings, Cameron is putting the ball in Clegg's court. Electoral reform is not, no matter what people may claim, a pressing issue. If Cameron offers Clegg a real deal can the Lib Dems really refuse it?

Tonight…

Well, 26 minutes in to the BBC broadcast and, unsurprisingly, no-one has learnt anything useful. I don't believe this exit poll that would, apparently, leave the Lib Dems with fewer seats is at all accurate. In fact I'd say it is bonkers. The fact that the broadcasters won't give us percentages is itself absurd and I also suspect they're applying a meaningless uniform swing to it too. So, worse than bonkers it's also probably useless. I'm not going to live-blog the whole shenanigans but I shall be tweeting and you can find my feed here. That said, there'll be some posts popping up here from time to time. As time and other commitments permit. Mind you, the BBC is now talking to Piers Morgan, Clive Anderson, Ben Kingsley and Bruce Forsyth.

A Country Election

There's been a sad lack of country music in these parts lately. But now that the campaigning is done, it's time to make amends for that. So here's a country playlist for the election. Like you know, if country music can't explain something most likely it ain't worth explaining... Porter Wagoner and Dolly Parton offer a succinct (if partisan and less than generous) summary of Britain's journey from 1997 to 2010: Holdin' On To Nothin'. Non-Labour voters (and disappointed Labour members) suspect Gordon Brown should be singing: Pretend I Never Happened by Waylon Jennings. On the other hand, Gordon takes his text from Emmylou Harris and Calling My Children Home. Then again, all the pols seem utterly familiar with the Louvin Brothers' and If I Could Only Win Your Love.

The Limits of Cameronism

It stops at the Tweed. Dave was in Glasgow and East Renfreshire yesterday on the Scottish leg of his 36-Hour-Dash-To-Save-the-United-Kingdom but, while symbolically useful, it won't have done him or his party that much good north of the border. Today's Scotsman poll puts the Tories on 17% in Scotland. More remarkably, the Scotsman finds that Brown has a +4 approval rating in Scotland while Cameron endures a -2 rating. I can't help but feel that many of my compatriots are employing a double standard here. As Cameron put it: "Of course it is always frustrating when you are not always getting through." "I believe in the UK and I will always fight for a Conservative recovery in Scotland.

The Cameron Project: Three Views from America

David Frum graciously plays the role of referee in this year's Massie vs O'Sullivan discussion and delivers what is, I think, a fair judgement. He grants that O'Sullivan is right to warn about the danger that the Cameron Project might seem inauthentic or cynical and that, as David puts it, "the extremity of the crisis" Britain faces has made some of Cameron's ideas and, more still, his style seem out of touch at times. Nevertheless, he concludes: A conservatism that fuses economic rationality with a concern for social cohesion is for Britain more than an electoral proposition. It is the kind of conservatism a riven and troubled society requires. Like John O’Sullivan, I feel my due share of nostalgia for the crusading conservatism of the Thatcher years.

Labour’s Tactical Voting Blunder

Pete asks whether Labour's tactical voting ploy can work. My suspicion is that it cannot and will not. This is not 1997. There is all the difference in the world between voting tactically against a government and voting tactically against the idea of a government that may otherwise come to power. More generally, the advice from Ed Balls and the others that tactical voting is the smart thing to do is an admission that Labour no longer believes it can win. Given the state of the polls that' hardly a startling conclusion but the problem, from Labour's perspective, with conceding it publicly is that it cannot possibly motivate Labour voters to get to the polls. Quite the reverse in fact. The message "Abandon Ship! Save Yourselves!" is no way for the party to hold its nerve.

Clegg Might Need Cameron More than Dave Needs Nick

Paul Waugh has an excellent post on the difficulties and opportunities that will face Cameron if he falls short of winning a majority. Much of the commentary on this has hitherto focused on the difficulties but Waugh is right to suggest that, actually, a minority Tory ministry could probably pass a good deal of legislation and, just as importantly, effect change in other areas without the need for primary legislation. I doubt Cameron would want to run a minority government for more than 18-24 months but it's worth noting that Stephen Harper's minority ministry in Ottawa still stands and so does Alex Salmond's in Edinburgh.

1910, 1924, 1931… 2010?

As a coda to this response to John O'Sullivan's response to this post it really isn't the case that the Conservatives are doing badly. Not only may Cameron beat Labout by the same margin  - in terms of the popular vote - that Mrs Thatcher triumphed by in 1979 (seven points) but his triumph will be much greater than hers. For while the Lady could get to 339 seats by winning 62 extra seats, Cameron will need to win double that number just to win an overall majority. Rarely have the Tories fced such a daunting task. In 1931 they won an extra 210 seats, in 1924 they took an additional 154 and in 1910, after the great disastoer of 1906, they increased their presence on the green benches by 116.

A Response to John O’Sullivan: Cameron is Doing As Well as Thatcher Did in 1979

My thanks to John O'Sullivan for his response to my post on Friday. A post that was so "well hidden" (as he puts it) that it was the top post for four hours and on my blog's front-page all weekend. I'm grateful too that he sees fit to remind me that the current electoral set-up gives Labour a considerable advantage. I wish someone had pointed that out sooner. Just to re-cap: Mr O'Sulivan thinks that the biggest question of this campaign is why the Tories aren't winning by more. To which I'd say that actually they are winning but that there are a number of other factors that prevent us from seeing this clearly. If Cameron beats Brown by seven points in the popular vote he will have beaten Labour by the same margin that Mrs Thatcher prevailed by in 1979.

Does Cameron Understand How PR Works?

This is, I'm afraid, a real question and one to which the answer would appear to be no. Today's text comes courtesy of John Rentoul and his colleague at the Independent on Sunday, Jane Merrick. On the matter of voting reform here's what David Cameron has to say: JM: Is it true you once said if you had to have electoral reform then STV [Single Transferable Vote] would be better than AV [Alternative Vote]? DC: My problem is I don’t see AV as effective reform, because you keep the constituency link, but you could end up with a more disproportionate result. It seems to me AV doesn’t really do it.

Reasons to Like Nick Clegg

As a person rather than as a politician, I mean. David has already mentioned Clegg's taste for Germanic* classical music and now there's another reason to approve of him. He's a Beckett fan. If he comes out for cricket and Wodehouse, his party can have my vote... Here he is on Sam: Every time I go back to Beckett he seems more subversive, not less; his works make me feel more uncomfortable than they did before. The unsettling idea, most explicit in Godot, that life is habit – that it is all just a series of motions devoid of meaning – never gets any easier.

More Nonsense from National Review

Earlier today I took issue with John O'Sullivan's take on this election but do not let it be said that his views are the only odd ones available at National Review. Here's Dennis Boyles: I'm sure all good Tories wish Cameron well. But one could argue that a Cameron win might be the worst of all outcomes for the Tories. Call it the sorrow of granted wishes, but if he wins, the Conservatives will run on visionless, unimaginative, timid platforms for years. [...]As I said, party partisans surely would never wish it — and after this last week, it's a very unlikely outcome, anyway — but I ask Jack and Andrew, is it not possible that the best result for Conservatives next Thursday is a narrow Brown win, with Clegg finishing third?

The Guardian Comes Out for Clegg

As so it has come to pass: even the Guardian has abandoned Labour and endorsed the Liberal Democrats. I expect the Independent will do the same and that the Mirror may be the only (London) blatt to support Gordon Brown. Meanwhile and for the first time since 1992 the Times is backing the Tories. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the Guardian's editorial is not its decision to support Clegg (this was predictable) but its repudiation of Labour's central charge against the Conservatives: that they have not changed. The paper disagrees: This election is about serious choices between three main parties which all have something to offer.

Why Aren’t the Tories Winning Easily? Because of 2001 and 2005. That’s Why.

In the midst of a piece asking where disillusioned Labour supporters will go - apparently UKIP will be a beneficiary  - John O'Sullivan writes: That said, the main underlying truth of this campaign — freshened up by this latest development — is that the Tories ought to be winning easily and by a landslide. That is what has happened in other countries where a Left government has collapsed as completely as Labour. Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party in Hungary has just won more than two-thirds of the popular vote and the right to redraw the country’s post-communist constitution in exactly these circumstances.

The Darling Option

Last October I suggested that if Labour wanted to find a caretaker leader they could do much worse than appoint Alistair Darling to the job. Granted, there were a couple of difficulties with this notion: Darling is Scottish and there is no party of Darling or interest that will swing behind him. Well he can't do much about the former, but the latter can be turned to his advantage (if he decides he wants the job) since, evidently, his elevation doesn't dash anyone else's hopes or interest. As I put it in October: Now, sure, Darling isn't a perfect candidate. But if such existed we wouldn't be having this discussion. But he has a certain calmness about him that might, just might, be what Labour need.

At last! Cameron Wins

This was hardly a vintage debate even if it is increasingly clear that these men have little regard for one another and that both Cameron and, especially, Brown are irritated by Nick Clegg's stickability. This was actually Clegg's weakest performance. After a good start and the best of the opening statements, Clegg's performance was less focused, less detailed, less persuasive any time he moved away from the Lib Dems' flagship proposal to raise the income tax threshold to £10,000. That may not matter much since this policy has the great advantage of being popular and easy to understand. Elsewhere, Clegg retreated to a cheap populism on bankers bonuses and the like that didn't persuade me of his seriousness even if I suspect it probably pleased many viewers.

Annals of Punditry | 29 April 2010

It can be a risky business, this game. There's always the temptation to produce some counterintuitive theory that, generally speaking, is too bleedin' clever by half. And the more everyone else says black is white so it's tempting to write that, actually, it's red. So, as we await the third and final leaders' debate this evening, it's 'fess-up time for the silly sod who, on March 30th, suggested that the answer to the question: Do Debates Really Help the Liberal Democrats? is, um, No. What a fool.

Brown and the Union

Ben Brogan accepts Labour's challenge to judge Gordon on substance not style and, unsurprisingly, finds him wanting. But in his critique he also includes this: On the substance of the constitution, he gerrymandered new bodies that turned on Labour and undermined the union. What on earth is he talking about? What are these bodies, how have they been gerrymandered and how have they undermined the Union? I really have no idea.